Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Tesla beat Wall Street’s profit expectations to start the year as the automaker said demand for its electric vehicles is rebounding around the globe, hinting at a possible recovery for its long-struggling automotive business. Adjusted earnings rose to 41 cents a share in the first quarter, the company said Wednesday in a statement, higher than the 34-cent average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. It’s the second straight quarter Tesla’s earnings have exceeded expectations. Tesla said it “saw continued growth in demand for our vehicles” in parts of Asia-Pacific and South America, along with a rebound in North America and the Europe-Middle East region. The surprisingly optimistic comments come several weeks after the automaker reported one of its worst quarters of auto sales in years. For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with: See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran as peace talks remain on hold, walking back threats to resume fighting. The US-Israel alliance and Iran won’t immediately return to fighting, but there’s still no sign the vital Hormuz waterway will be reopened to oil and gas shipments soon. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz or restart peace talks until the US naval operation ends, and the US president blamed divisions among the Islamic Republic’s leaders for the need to extend the truce. 2) Virginia voters backed a Democratic plan to redraw the state's congressional districts, with the Yes vote leading 51.5% to 48.6%. The vote could net Democrats as many as four more US House seats in November's midterm elections, according to multiple projections. The outcome shifts Virginia's congressional delegation from being one of the most balanced to packing Republican voters together, favoring Democrats in most districts. 3) Kevin Warsh pledged to act independently if confirmed as the next Federal Reserve chair, rejecting concerns he would be a "sock puppet" for President Trump. Warsh called for changes to the way the US central bank makes its decisions, including a new framework for dealing with persistent inflation and a new way of communicating with the public. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Donald Trump announced he was extending a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely a day before it was set to expire, even as plans for a fresh round of talks between the two countries fell apart. In a Truth Social post, Trump said Tuesday he would maintain a blockade over ships coming to and from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. He said Pakistan, which had mediated between the two sides, asked for the US to hold off on fresh strikes and he was extending the ceasefire until Iran submits a new proposal “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with: See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend a two-week ceasefire with Iran that’s set to expire in two days. The president said the Strait of Hormuz would stay blockaded for now, and “I’m not opening it until a deal is signed.” Iranian officials have stopped short of explicitly ruling out participation in the talks in Pakistan, reinforcing expectations that both sides are continuing to explore a deal to end the war. 2) Apple announced longtime CEO Tim Cook will be replaced by John Ternus, with Ternus taking the job in September, and the company implying that he will bring continuity and help preserve Cook's legacy. Ternus is expected to bring a more decisive leadership style, moving faster and sharpening Apple's competitiveness in AI, and will oversee the launch of new products, including Apple's first foldable iPhone and a fresh start for Siri. 3) Amazon is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time. The deal was struck at a valuation of $350 billion, and Anthropic plans to spend more than $100 billion over the next 10 years on Amazon’s cloud technologies and chips. Amazon will provide Anthropic with chips to reach about 5 gigawatts of power, and the companies said more than 100,000 customers run Claude models on Amazon Web Services. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Apple named hardware chief John Ternus as the iPhone maker’s next leader, with Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook shifting to the role of executive chairman. Ternus, 50, will become CEO on Sept. 1, the company said in a statement Monday. The Apple veteran was head of hardware engineering since 2021 and has spent 25 years focused on product development at the iPhone maker. Bloomberg News previously reported that Ternus was Cook’s heir apparent. Ternus’s hardware engineering division will be taken over by longtime deputy Tom Marieb, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. He will report to newly named Chief Hardware Officer Johny Srouji. In that role, Srouji is gaining oversight of a newly combined hardware engineering and hardware technologies group. For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with: See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump and Iranian officials offered disparate views on the next stage of the war, casting uncertainty over whether the two sides would meet for peace talks with a ceasefire set to expire in the coming days. Tensions in the war ratcheted up over the weekend as the US Navy fired upon and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, the first seizure in the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That critical waterway for energy shipments remained closed early Monday after confusion over the weekend about whether tankers could transit the strait. Iran had initially said ships could pass before abruptly stopping traffic through the waterway less than 24 hours later. At a weekly press conference Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said there are "no plans for the next round of negotiations, and no decision has been made in this regard.” 2) Oil jumped, pushing US stocks and Treasuries lower after a turbulent weekend in the Middle East cast doubt on the prospects for peace talks ahead of a looming ceasefire deadline. Brent rose 5.4% above $95 a barrel as the US Navy carried out its first seizure of an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Futures for the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, with the benchmark poised to snap a five-day winning streak during which it notched a succession of highs. European stocks declined 1%, while the technology sector drove gains in Asia. The dollar was little changed. Bond yields rose sharply in Europe, whereas moves in Treasuries were more modest. Gold dropped below $4,800 an ounce. 3) A man in Louisiana killed eight children, including seven of his own, in a domestic shooting that unfolded across two homes in Shreveport early Sunday, leaving a community in shock and prompting a large police response. The gunman, identified as Shamar Elkins, 31, also critically wounded two women before being killed by officers after a pursuit. Police said the victims, ages 3 to 11, were found in a single residence, with at least one child attempting to escape from the roof. Authorities said the case appears to stem from a domestic dispute and remains under investigation. It is the deadliest U.S. mass shooting in more than two years. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Donald Trump claimed Iran has made key concessions in an ongoing negotiation to end the seven-week war, while a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon increased the prospect of a broader peace.Trump said it may not be necessary to renew an April 7 truce with the Islamic Republic before it expires next week, defying expectations that an extension will be needed to allow more time for diplomacy. 2) Some leaders in Arab states in the Persian Gulf and Europe expect it will take about six months to agree to a peace accord and that the ceasefire should be extended to cover that period, according to officials familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private talks. That’s in part to allow for a reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway, they said. 3) Netflix Inc. gave a forecast for the second quarter that fell short of analysts’ expectations, sending the shares tumbling in extended trading.The streaming pioneer also announced that Chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings is stepping down from the board at the company’s annual meeting after 29 years to pursue philanthropy and personal interests. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Netflix gave a forecast for the second quarter that fell short of analysts expectations, sending the shares down in extended trading. The streaming pioneer also announced that chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings is stepping down from the board after 29 years to pursue philanthropy and personal interests. Revenue rose 16% in the first three months of the year to $12.3 billion, compared with estimates for $12.2 billion, the company said in a statement on Thursday. Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.23 compared with estimates of 76 cents. For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with: See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) The US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more time to negotiate a peace deal, according to a person familiar with the matter, reducing the risk of renewed fighting despite an intensifying standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. With the initial truce due to expire next week, mediators are seeking technical talks to overcome the most contentious issues preventing a longer-term agreement, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. Those include reopening Hormuz and the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Tensions remain high over the strait, a critical waterway for oil and gas that’s been effectively shuttered since the start of the war almost seven weeks ago. The US has set up a naval blockade to cut off Iranian shipments, and said Wednesday that 10 vessels have been forced to turn around. Tehran is keeping the strait closed to most other traffic. The US hasn’t “formally requested an extension of the ceasefire,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Wednesday. But she acknowledged “we remain very much engaged in these negotiations.” 2) Stocks set new highs as an upbeat forecast from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. added fuel to technology shares amid rising optimism that the US and Iran are seeking more time to negotiate a peace deal. Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.2% after the benchmark closed above the 7,000 mark for the first time. Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.4% as TSMC’s raised revenue outlook highlighted the resilience of AI chip demand. Adding to the upbeat mood in tech, Elon Musk’s lieutenants have sought quotes and delivery times for chipmaking equipment for his envisioned Terafab. Meanwhile, Brent fluctuated around $95 a barrel as the US and Iran considered a two-week ceasefire extension. Global bonds rose, led by gains in Europe where central bank policymakers signaled they’re in no rush to raise interest rates. The dollar was little changed while gold rose toward $4,825 an ounce. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni says investors are looking past the war in the Middle East and focusing on market fundamentals. 3) Live Nation Entertainment Inc.’s loss in a landmark antitrust trial follows years of regulatory scrutiny of its dominance in the live events business and sets the stage for a possible breakup of the largest US concert promoter and ticket seller. After a six-week trial in Manhattan, which featured testimony from high-profile figures in the music industry and Live Nation Chief Executive Officer Michael Rapino, a federal jury on Wednesday ruled the company illegally monopolized the live events industry and overcharged fans for tickets to music performances. The verdict marked a major win for a coalition of 33 states and Washington DC that pursued the case despite the US Justice Department’s decision to pull out after the first week of the trial, with a surprise settlement allowing Live Nation to keep its Ticketmaster unit. But jurors concluded the company illegally monopolized ticketing and tied Live Nation venues to its promotion business, leading concert goers to overpay by $1.72 per ticket. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump indicated he may be preparing to wind down the war with Iran, boosting market optimism and restoring some stability to global energy prices. Peace talks with the Islamic Republic might restart “over the next two days,” the New York Post cited the president as saying. In a separate interview with ABC News, he said extending a two-week ceasefire that was clinched last week after nearly six weeks of fighting may not be necessary, hinting at significant near-term progress without elaborating. There are signs Tehran is also trying to avoid escalation, with authorities considering a pause in shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and jeopardizing fresh negotiations. The shift in the narrative from Washington — from announcing a total blockade of Hormuz to expectations of a possible breakthrough — has left many questions unanswered, including the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium. 2) Former Treasury Secretary and ex-Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she still sees prospects for a US interest-rate cut later this year, though the unfolding oil shock caused by the war in Iran clouds the outlook. “This is really a broad supply shock,” spreading from pump prices to LNG, fertilizers, food, shipping costs, and semiconductors, Yellen said at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong on Wednesday. While the need to raise rates can’t be ruled out, stable long-run inflation expectations suggest that scenario remains unlikely for now, Yellen said. Minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting, released last Wednesday in Washington, showed a growing number of officials worried the Iran war could further stoke inflation and wanted to make clear that the central bank may have to consider raising interest rates. In projections released after that meeting, policymakers had signaled an expectation for one interest-rate cut in 2026, unchanged from their December forecasts. 3) President Trump’s tariffs may be restored by July to the levels in place before the Supreme Court struck down many of his levies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The Treasury secretary said because the Section 301 tariff authority has already been tested in the courts, business leaders are able to start planning and making decisions around capital expenditures. Trump is seeking to restore his tariff wall using different authorities after the high court ruled that his use of emergency powers to impose those earlier duties was unconstitutional. After the Supreme Court struck down many of his global tariffs, Trump imposed a temporary 10% tariff that covers many imports. That levy is set to expire on July 24. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) The US and Iran are weighing further negotiations to extend a two-week ceasefire as President Trump presses ahead with a naval blockade to curb the Islamic Republic’s oil exports, a step aimed at extracting concessions in peace talks. The objective is to hold fresh discussions before the truce announced April 7 expires next week, according to people familiar with the matter. “We’ve been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal,” Trump said at the White House on Monday, hours after the US Navy began implementing the blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz to cut off vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas. The latest push shows the two sides haven’t given up on diplomacy after their first round of direct negotiations in Pakistan failed to produce an agreement. The war, which began when the US and Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran on Feb. 28, has left thousands dead, damaged infrastructure and disrupted energy flows beyond the Persian Gulf, rattling markets and triggering a global price spike. 2) Chinese President Xi Jinping lamented a world in “disarray,” using some of his strongest language yet to describe a collapse of the Western-led international order as he vowed to play a constructive role in the Middle East. “The international order is crumbling into disarray,” Xi told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Tuesday in Beijing, using a Chinese phrase indicating not only chaos but also moral decay. The comments, part of Xi’s first public statements on the Iran war since the conflict began more than a month ago, followed a flurry of visits by world leaders to Beijing and fresh economic data on Tuesday showing the war took a sharp toll on Chinese exports in March. Xi has framed his country as a stabilizing force in a world thrown into turmoil by President Trump’s erratic approach to trade and foreign policy. In an earlier meeting with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed, Xi reiterated that China would continue to play a “constructive role” in the Middle East. 3) Democrat Eric Swalwell and Republican Tony Gonzales said they plan on leaving their congressional seats in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct. “I am deeply sorry to my family, staff, and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past,” Swalwell said in a post on X on Monday announcing his intent to resign. He vowed to “fight the serious, false allegations made against me,” but also said he “must take responsibility and ownership for the mistakes I did make.” Shortly after, Republican Representative Tony Gonzales of Texas said in a separate said in a separate social media statement that he planned on filing his retirement from office “when Congress returns tomorrow.” Gonzales faced calls to resign after allegations that he had an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. A growing number of lawmakers had called for the resignation of both men, arguing the allegations against them tarnished their ability to remain in Congress, with some calling for their expulsion. The resignations leave the Republicans’ slim majority in the US House of Representatives unchanged. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance, escalating a standoff that has already brought the waterway to a near standstill and disrupted global energy supplies. The president’s announcement came hours after the US and Iran failed to reach a deal in direct talks in Pakistan, jeopardizing hopes of turning a fragile ceasefire into a lasting end to a war that has claimed thousands of lives. The negotiations collapsed because of differences over the nuclear issue, Trump said in a Truth Social posting on Sunday. The US military said Sunday that it would begin the blockade at 10 am New York time on Monday. 2) Peter Magyar, Hungary’s next prime minister, outlined sweeping changes after ending Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule in a landslide election victory that will redefine the country’s ties with the European Union, Russia and the US administration of President Trump. Magyar, a 45-year-old former insider of Orban’s nationalists, said the overwhelming victory for his Tisza party — translating into a two-thirds parliamentary majority — gave him a mandate to dismantle Orban’s increasingly authoritarian system and bring Hungary back into the European fold. Orban conceded the defeat, telling supporters that the result was “painful” for him. Magyar, whose conservative-leaning party has sought to unite disgruntled voters, called on the country’s president, top justices and chief prosecutor to all hand in their resignations during his victory speech in front of a cheering crowd in Budapest on Sunday. Magyar said they had put their political allegiance to Orban’s authoritarian system above their office’s responsibilities. 3) US Representative Eric Swalwell suspended his bid for governor of California after a series of sexual assault allegations threw his campaign into turmoil and prompted backers to flee. “I am suspending my campaign for governor,” Swalwell said in a post on social media on Sunday evening. He apologized to his supporters, adding “I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.” Swalwell’s exit upends a competitive and crowded race to lead the most populous US state. The 45-year-old, seven-term congressman from the San Fransisco Bay area, had been polling among the top Democrats to succeed Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking re-election because of term limits. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump demanded Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising pressure on Tehran before talks to turn a fragile ceasefire into lasting peace. The truce remains shaky, with Kuwait reporting large-scale drone attacks on “vital” facilities overnight into Friday and accusing Iran and its proxy groups of violating the ceasefire announced by Washington and Tehran two days earlier. The war has already killed thousands of people and damaged energy infrastructure across the oil-rich Persian Gulf. US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday, with shipping through Hormuz — which handled about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the war — a central sticking point. 2) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he agreed to hold direct talks with Lebanon about the conflict, with the focus on disarming Hezbollah. Trump called the Israeli leader on Wednesday and asked him to scale back strikes to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran, NBC reported, citing an unidentified senior administration official. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Israel’s strikes in Lebanon are a “clear violation” of the ceasefire and “will render negotiations meaningless.” 3) Oil rose a second day after Saudi Arabia said its production capacity has been reduced due to attacks on energy infrastructure, but futures remain on track for their biggest weekly loss since June. Saudi Arabia’s press agency said the nation’s production capacity has been cut by around 600,000 barrels a day due to attacks on energy infrastructure. That figure accounts for roughly 10% of the kingdom’s normal crude exports, according to Bloomberg calculations. Meanwhile, strikes on a pumping station serving the East-West pipeline — which Saudi Arabia has been using to export crude via the Red Sea — crimped daily throughput by 700,000 barrels this week, according to the report. Kuwait also said it was intercepting drone attacks and that some vital facilities were targeted. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump vowed to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran that are planned to firm up a fragile truce, while Tehran warned there may be mines in a strategic waterway Washington wants reopened. Both sides accused each other of violating the truce that was announced Tuesday after six weeks of fighting, with a disagreement over whether the ceasefire extends to Lebanon emerging as a key flashpoint that could unravel the accord. Despite the escalating rhetoric, there were signs the ceasefire was largely holding, with a notable decline in attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf. Vice President JD Vance said Washington never suggested that fighting between Israel and Tehran-aligned Hezbollah in Lebanon would cease. But Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said continued attacks on Hezbollah — along with what Tehran described as an Israeli drone strike on its territory overnight — amounted to clear violations of the agreement. 2) President Trump lashed out at NATO after meeting with the military alliance’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, making clear that his anger over the organization’s stance on the Iran war remained acute. “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!” the president wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform on Wednesday evening. Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, was in the US on a mission to temper Trump’s public displeasure after NATO allies refused to help him protect commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz or let the US use some of their bases to attack Iran during the war that began on Feb. 28. Trump has also revived his grievance that NATO countries wouldn’t give him Greenland, a Danish territory. 3) A growing number of Federal Reserve officials worried the Iran war could further stoke inflation and wanted to make clear following their March meeting that the central bank may have to consider raising interest rates. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17-18 meeting, released Wednesday in Washington, showed policymakers wrestled with starkly differing scenarios for the US economy following the outbreak of the Iran war, and the policy reactions that might follow. Most officials worried a protracted war could hurt the labor market and warrant lower interest rates. At the same time, many policymakers highlighted the risk to inflation that might ultimately warrant rate increases. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a last-ditch deal that averted President Trump’s threatened escalation of the war. Trump announced the agreement on social media Tuesday, hours after mediator Pakistan implored him to back off his deadline to unleash massive devastation on Iran if it didn’t meet his demands. The deal buys time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week conflict, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis. 2) Oil and gas prices both plummeted after the US and Iran's announced ceasefire. Brent fell as much as 16% before trading around $95 a barrel, while European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years, shedding as much as 20%. Prices of refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel — which had been the biggest threats to global inflation — also tumbled. Much will now depend on how quickly transit through Hormuz can resume. It’s the route for about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, and the near-halt of traffic has pushed prices for real-world crude to a record. Faced with an unprecedented disruption to flows, the world is rapidly running down supply buffers to offset the loss. 3) Republican Clay Fuller is projected to win a US House seat in a deeply conservative Georgia district even as Democratic gains serve as an early warning for Republican lawmakers navigating President Trump’s threats of a widening war in Iran and voters’ growing economic unease. With 83% of the votes counted, Fuller had 57% compared to 43% for the Democratic candidate, Shawn Harris, according to Decision Desk HQ. That would keep the seat vacated by conservative firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene in Republican hands, but by a narrower margin than in recent elections. Trump had carried the district by 37 percentage points in 2024. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that’s expected to halt the American-Israeli military campaign in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump announced the agreement Tuesday on social media hours after Pakistan, a mediator in talks, implored the US leader to back off his deadline to unleash massive devastation on Iran if it did not meet his demands. The deal buys time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis. Trump said he had agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” as long as Iran agrees to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Radio host Doug Krizner speaks with: Bloomberg State Department and Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin Bloomberg This Weekend co-host Christina Ruffini Bloomberg White House and Washington correspondent Jeff Mason Terry Haines, founder of Pangea Policy Daniel Byman, Director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to agree to a deal is just hours away, and investors are once again finding themselves forced to prepare for a range of possible outcomes. Trump insisted that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz be part of any deal to end the Middle East war and escalated threats to obliterate key Iranian infrastructure if his terms aren’t met before a Tuesday deadline. Trump said Monday that talks with Iran are “going well” and that reopening the strait is “a very big priority.” The president in recent weeks has said an agreement on the strait wasn’t among his core prerequisites for ending the conflict. Trump laid bare the consequences Iran would face if it doesn’t reach a deal by his Tuesday 8 p.m. Eastern Time cut-off, saying the US military could destroy “every bridge in Iran by 12 o’clock tomorrow night.” Power plants would be rendered “burning, exploding and never to be used again,” he said. Attacking civilian infrastructure is barred by the Geneva Conventions, but Trump said he was “not at all” concerned about committing war crimes. 2) NASA’s four Artemis astronauts swung behind the moon and are headed home, in a journey that shattered space travel distance records and brought people the closest they’ve been to the lunar surface in more than 50 years. At their nearest distance to the moon, the Artemis II’s Lockheed Martin Corp.-built Orion capsule came within an estimated 4,067 miles of the lunar surface, according to calculations by NASA. From the crew’s point of view, the moon would have appeared roughly the size of a basketball in someone’s outstretched hand. The spacecraft reached its maximum distance from Earth minutes later, reaching 252,756 miles, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said in a post on X. The astronauts earlier broke the distance record for space travel. Shortly before 2 p.m. New York time on Monday, they surpassed the distance the Apollo 13 crew traveled in 1970 of 248,655 miles (400,170 kilometers) from Earth, NASA said. 3) The University of Michigan Wolverines basketball team its second national title in men's basketball and first since 1989, beating the UConn Huskies by a score of 69-63. Michigan shot just two three-pointers all game, but relied on defense, holding UConn to under 31% shooting. Final Four Most Outstanding Player Elliot Cadeau led with 19 points. UConn’s bid for a third title in four seasons fell short, despite 22 offensive rebounds in the championship match. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) President Trump issued increasingly aggressive threats to destroy Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday and bring “Hell” to the country following the rescue of a US airman more than a day after his fighter jet was shot down. Iran rejected Trump’s latest ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would only fully resume operations when war damage is compensated. Tehran continued striking energy targets in Gulf neighbors, including Kuwait’s oil headquarters. Trump, in renewing his threats to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, used an expletive in a social media post and told Axios he would be “blowing up everything over there” if Iran doesn’t make a deal. He said he plans a news conference at 1 p.m. on Monday and posted about a Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline, without offering details. 2) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she is looking to hold talks with Iran’s leader and possibly also a separate call with President Trump, as the clock ticks on the US president’s latest threat to bomb key Iranian infrastructure. “We are currently making preparations for leadership level talks,” Japan’s Takaichi said of talks with Iran during a parliamentary session Monday. “We will continue to do everything in our power to find an off-ramp to this situation and return to peace.” Takaichi’s comments came with Trump warning Tehran that the US will bomb Iranian power plants unless it opens up the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point through which Japan secures over 90% of its oil. Takaichi said that Japan would do what it can ahead of the Tuesday ultimatum set by Trump, suggesting that she was also seeking a phone call with Trump, though nothing has been finalized yet. Whether Japan can help defuse tensions or even play a mediation role remains unclear, but the nation has a key interest in maintaining a working relationship with a country that currently controls passage through the Strait of Hormuz. 3) Saudi Arabia has raised the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium, as a widening conflict in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz convulse energy markets. State oil producer Saudi Aramco will increase flagship Arab Light crude prices for May sales to a premium of $19.50 over regional benchmarks for refiners in Asia, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. Still, the level is less than the $40 a barrel premium anticipated by traders and refiners in a Bloomberg survey. The gap with market expectations is in part because of a volatile market, and as prices of some Middle Eastern grades dipped in the last week of March, according to traders. Aramco’s oil is also priced for loading in the Persian Gulf port of Ras Tanura, though all of the company’s exports are currently being shipped from the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Buyers typically incur additional costs to collect those barrels. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.