Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

This episode of Talking Real Money tackles myths about the Federal Reserve and interest rates, explains why mortgage and Treasury rates don’t automatically follow Fed moves, and reminds listeners that markets usually price in expected changes. Don and Tom then pop the cork on wine investing, showing that after costs it performs about as well as plain bonds—and far worse than a 60/40 portfolio. They compare wine and tobacco “sin stocks,” highlight the volatility of individual companies like Constellation Brands and Altria, and use that as a cautionary lesson against stock-picking. Listener calls cover asset location strategies (Roth vs. taxable vs. HSA), the realities of buffer ETFs, and how to evaluate fiduciary firms like Prairie View Partners (now Savant). As always, the conclusion is clear: keep it simple, diversify, and drink the wine instead of investing in it. 0:04 Old-fashioned call-in intro and Fed rate cut discussion 1:33 Myths about Fed decisions and mortgage/consumer loan rates 3:21 Treasury yields, market reactions, and rate expectations through 2026 6:16 Why markets often anticipate rate changes in advance 7:40 Transition into alternatives and “exciting” investments 9:03 Wine as an investment: storage, insurance, dealer costs 10:38 Average returns vs. net after-cost reality (bonds beat wine) 12:46 Stocks and bonds outperform—“invest in markets, drink the wine” 14:08 Constellation Brands stock history as a volatility case study 17:37 Altria (tobacco) stock comparison and “sin stock” volatility lesson 20:16 Small percentage of individual stocks outperform T-bills (Bessembinder research) 21:39 Listener: Asset location strategy (taxable, Roth, HSA) 24:58 ETFs changing the asset location conversation 27:10 Treatment of HSAs as Roth-like for medical use vs. IRA-like otherwise 28:42 Listener: Buffer funds (“boomer candy”) and why they’re costly gimmicks 32:54 Reminder that many investors panic out of markets at the worst times 33:42 Listener: Emergency fund and avoiding 1099s (spoiler: you can’t) 34:58 Listener: Evaluating fiduciary firm Prairie View Partners (merged with Savant) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

0:04 Why your home isn’t part of your investment portfolio 0:26 The myth of the American Dream and why owning may not make sense 1:33 A buyer’s remorse story from Atlanta 2:35 $3,000/month to own vs. $1,200/month to rent 3:34 Hidden expenses: $13,000 sewer connection surprise 4:31 “I can’t sell my house” = “I won’t lower the price” 5:35 Housing returns: even hot markets underperform stocks 6:19 Divorcees sharing homes to keep a 2% mortgage 7:35 Why paying off a low-rate mortgage often makes no sense 8:45 Don and Tom both bought homes for lifestyle, not wealth 10:13 Florida: where houses go to die (and get re-roofed) 11:33 Owning a home is not a prerequisite for wealth 12:48 How to send voice questions (seriously, do it) 14:18 Listener Q: 401(k) with limited options—how to balance Roth IRA 15:25 Fund strategy: AVUV and AVDV combo 16:44 Listener Q: Why not mention charitable remainder trusts? 17:27 Listener Q: Are flat-fee advisors better than AUM? 19:00 Hourly advisor costs and why they seem high 20:35 Outro: Tell a friend, save them from financial doom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don laments the shortage of voice-submitted questions for the Friday Q&A shows and urges listeners to speak their questions into their phones or computers instead of typing them. He answers four listener questions: whether to take a pension lump sum or annuity, whether to roll a 401(k) into an IRA and how much to keep saving with a union pension, a callout about financial jargon (especially “basis points”), and whether stocks are as speculative as cryptocurrency. Don emphasizes that the annuity option is unusually generous, consolidating accounts can simplify rebalancing, saving as much as possible remains wise, and owning the entire global economy through diversified funds is investing, not speculation. 0:09 Don bemoans typed questions and encourages listeners to use voice submission 2:16 Listener asks about lump-sum pension vs. annuity — Don leans strongly toward annuity 6:05 Listener asks about rolling over a 401(k) to an IRA and whether to keep contributing — Don favors consolidation and continued saving 9:00 Caller criticizes jargon like “basis points” — Don defends term as shorthand but explains its meaning 12:04 Caller compares stocks to crypto — Don explains why diversified global stocks are investing, not speculation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode explores Americans’ financial well-being in 2025, using a Yahoo Finance/Marist survey as the springboard. Don and Tom discuss how their audience differs from the average American listener, how perceptions of financial health can be misleading, and what to actually do if your finances—or your feelings about them—are getting worse. They debate the usefulness of net worth tracking, stress the importance of financial literacy, and suggest automating savings. Listener questions cover indexed annuities, bond substitutes, tax implications, and long-term care sales pitches. They also read a letter defending Rick Edelman and challenging their dismissal of crypto, which leads to a lively discussion about evidence-based investing, Eugene Fama’s critique of Bitcoin, and the dangers of sensationalized advice. They end with a reflection on public criticism and the value of having one’s views challenged. 0:29 Comparing TRM listeners to Ramsey and Kiyosaki audiences 1:37 Median savings for over-65 Americans and why $200k still isn’t enough 2:42 Yahoo/Marist survey results: affordability, debt, emergency savings 3:50 One in three say finances worsened; generational breakdown 4:51 Explaining net worth, what to include and exclude 7:01 Tracking net worth annually as a financial benchmark 8:00 Divorce, net worth, and the joke about “kill them off” 9:50 Income gap, gender differences, and perception vs. reality 10:34 How uncertainty and fear shape financial outlooks 11:41 Producer note joke about being “sexist but not leftist” 11:50 Dissatisfaction with savings and personal spending habits 13:06 Fixing bad finances: literacy, automation, benchmarking 17:20 Don argues perception matters more than reality for many 18:20 Listener question: fixed index annuity as bond substitute 19:46 Caps, participation rates, and underperformance vs. markets 21:10 Tax treatment of annuities vs. ETFs 22:55 Importance of advice near retirement (decumulation phase) 23:44 Listener shares bad LTC/annuity sales pitch experience 24:54 Fixed annuity guarantees vs. CDs and government bonds 25:39 Listener defends Rick Edelman, suggests an open dialogue 26:52 Don’s critique of Edelman’s shift toward sensationalism 29:29 Eugene Fama’s comments on Bitcoin, clash with Edelman’s stance 31:23 Public criticism is fair game—reading recent Apple Podcast reviews 32:48 Bitcoin adoption debate and institutional incentives Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don goes solo this week and covers the wild state of “investing” in 2025 — including single-stock ETFs, leveraged funds, and zero-day options that look more like gambling than investing. He answers listener questions about Roth strategies for kids, aggressive long-term allocations, finding fiduciary advisors, dealing with inherited stock portfolios, and the ethics and fees of big Wall Street firms. Plus, he fields questions about new tax-focused ETFs and whether complicated multi-fund factor strategies are really worth the trouble. 0:04 Don jokes about ChatGPT replacing him, welcomes listeners 1:53 Today’s topic: 30% of new ETFs are tied to single stocks — “this is gambling” 4:27 Zero-day options and high-frequency trading likened to sports betting 5:23 Congressman Ro Khanna’s 2,800 trades this year — four per market day 6:12 Don’s call to stop pretending this is investing 8:16 Caller Mike: 3 kids with $100k+ Roths each — aggressive allocation recommendations (AVUV, AVGE, DFAW, 100% equity) 12:24 International weighting debate — Don likes 60/40 global tilt 15:34 Caller Dan from Israel: How to confirm if an advisor is a fiduciary; why inheriting stocks isn’t a reason to keep them 18:08 Transitioning from stocks to ETFs while minimizing capital gains 22:23 Caller Laura: Ethical concerns with J.P. Morgan, fees near 1%, annuities in portfolio — Don urges finding a true fiduciary and offers local resources 27:07 Caller Jim: New ETF (TOT) promising tax efficiency — Don warns against chasing “magic tricks” for small benefits 31:44 Question about swapping gains between mother/son’s VTI shares — IRS won’t allow 33:47 Kath reads listener question: Three-bucket retirement system, comparing iShares GLOF vs AVGE — Don says it’s fine, but may be overcomplicating 35:34 Rebalancing frequency discussion — annual is enough for most Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Don hosts solo and brings in “Cath GPT” (ChatGPT) as a "live" guest to explore the rise of AI in personal finance. They cover what types of questions AI is best at answering, its limits for real-time data and stock trading, and the importance of privacy and skepticism. Don emphasizes planning before investing, critiques dollar-cost averaging with lump sums, and fields listener calls on shifting from commercial real estate to the market, Roth conversions, AVGE vs. AVUV, resetting cost basis in a low-income year, and avoiding dubious “legacy funds.” The show closes with reminders about planning, asking spoken questions, and steering clear of high-commission products. 1:02 NYT & Yahoo reports on AI financial advice 1:53 Cath GPT joins live, discusses safe AI uses 3:58 Privacy concerns and data recency limits 6:22 Why AI is bad for stock trading advice 6:50 Don confirms Cath recommends index investing 8:14 Warning about sycophancy — always ask for sources 8:38 Caller Josh: pivoting from commercial property to stock market 10:32 Don: planning first, lump sum > DCA 13:23 Caller Greg: inherited assets, Roth conversions, AVGE timeframe, bond/CD ladders 17:20 Don urges no market timing on conversions 22:50 Caller Brian: small-cap value, AVUV vs. Russell 2000, Merriman strategy 28:07 Don: simplify, AVUV fine but optional 29:43 Caller Jason: harvesting gains in low-income year, Don urges diversification 33:03 Caller: backdoor Roth timing — lump sum beats DCA 34:35 Don jokes about October crashes 37:59 Caller Tim: best annuity is SPIA, avoids “legacy funds” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don and Tom take listeners on a “mountaintop” look at today’s frothy markets, exploring elevated valuations, retail trading spikes, and record margin debt. They unpack what these numbers really mean, warn against trying to time the market, and reiterate the need for diversification and a long-term plan. Listener questions include a young investor’s Fidelity-heavy portfolio, a 30-something’s aggressive allocation and risk score mismatch, and a listener inquiry about “investwithroots.com,” which Don dissects as a private real-estate fund with fees and risks that outweigh its glossy promises. 0:04 Opening from the market “peak” and climbing metaphor 1:38 Market valuation discussion: P/E ratios, concentration in top 10 stocks 3:21 Surge in retail trading, meme stocks, margin debt, Robinhood sentiment 5:13 Economic uncertainty and why market timing doesn’t work 6:11 Staying with your plan and portfolio diversification 7:15 Risks of U.S. large-cap concentration in typical portfolios 8:03 The need to include small-cap, value, and international stocks 9:14 Eugene Fama’s “trading is like soap” warning and why trading destroys wealth 10:46 Practical advice: stop trying to outsmart the market, build a plan 13:22 Listener Q1: 18-year-old’s portfolio—too much large-cap, not enough international or small value 16:15 Listener Q2: 30-year-old with $100K—good diversification but needs bonds for risk profile 19:25 Listener Q3: Investwithroots.com analysis—fees, geographic risk, private REIT red flags 24:16 Why public REITs like Vanguard’s VNQ offer better diversification/liquidity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don answers listener questions on funding a taxable brokerage account, clarifies what “more buyers than sellers” really means, explains why fixed income is about psychology rather than income, gives advice on setting up joint accounts for aging parents, lays out a lifetime HSA allocation strategy, and clears up confusion about Appella Wealth’s connection to Talking Real Money. 0:04 Friday Q&A intro and thanks for listener questions 1:19 When to open a taxable brokerage account (AVGE + SGOV mix) 3:28 “More buyers than sellers” — why it’s really about demand vs. supply 6:23 Whether pension + Social Security counts as “fixed income” in a 60/40 plan 10:40 Setting up money market accounts and estate planning for aging parents 14:07 Lifetime HSA strategy — contributions, withdrawals, and allocation glidepath 17:32 Is Appella Advice for Life connected to Talking Real Money? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don and Tom dig into international investing — why diversification across borders is essential, why timing international markets is a mistake, and how currency fluctuations affect returns. They revisit Japan’s lost decades, talk emerging markets, discuss John Bogle’s arguments against international investing, and explain why owning all markets all the time makes the most sense. Listener questions cover tax perceptions about California, long-term return comparisons, 401(k) rollover and Rule of 55 withdrawals, and the realities of retiring abroad — including the sticker shock of Guatemala’s healthcare spending. 0:04 Should you invest internationally now that foreign markets are rising? 1:29 Morningstar data shows non-U.S. markets doubling U.S. returns in 2025. 2:38 The dollar’s weakness as a key factor in performance. 3:20 Mexico, Brazil, Japan, and China’s strong year — but should you chase it? 4:02 Market leadership cycles: U.S. vs. international across decades. 4:50 The “1990 Japan” cautionary tale: why timing single markets can disappoint. 6:17 Concentration risk, emerging markets, and why you need global diversification. 7:33 Exposure to global companies you can’t get by owning U.S.-only funds. 8:42 Dimensional’s chart shows no country wins every year — own them all. 9:40 Addressing the John Bogle “you already own international through U.S. firms” argument. 10:21 Nestlé example: why local economy exposure matters. 12:45 Listener Greg challenges Don’s California tax comment — clarification given. 13:45 State tax comparisons, why there’s no perfect tax haven. 14:41 New York vs. California tax burdens — where it’s worst. 15:30 Listener Tim asks about long-term return periods — Don points to IFA data. 17:40 1,700+ episodes milestone and show longevity banter. 18:30 Listener Jeff’s complex retirement accounts and Rule of 55 rollover question. 19:09 Discussion of retiring abroad and health care concerns in Guatemala. 22:20 U.S. health care spending vs. Guatemala — a sobering gap. 23:39 Gallows humor about quick death and end-of-life planning. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Don and Tom dig into the podcast rankings to explain why Talking Real Money isn’t at the top—and why Dave Ramsey still is, despite offering more shame than substance. They explore the concept of financial shaming vs. education, reflect on listener Judy’s brilliant retirement planning, and take aim at stock-trading politicians, especially California Rep. Ro Khanna with his 4,700+ trades in one year. Listener questions cover inheritance allocation, condos as investments, and 401(k) vs. Roth vs. brokerage savings. Bonus: Tom yells at his grandkids, Don hates condos, and Congress gets roasted. 0:04 Who’s #1 in investing podcasts? Spoiler: It’s not Don and Tom—it’s still Ramsey 1:18 Financial shaming, bullying, and the “toxic” tone of the Ramsey Show 2:22 The lost LinkedIn post that called out Ramsey culture 3:49 Should shame ever be part of financial advice? (They say no) 5:05 How Talking Real Money tries to educate—not humiliate 7:04 What should great financial advice sound like? A compassionate take 8:47 Caller Judy (age 72) seeks advice on a $200k inheritance—Tom and Don love her plan 11:51 Municipal bond ETFs (like VTEB) vs. international bonds vs. risk tolerance 13:53 Judy’s journey learning finance solo—Don gets emotional 14:38 Why are podcast rankings volatile? Don suspects cheating again 16:03 Listener question: Should you max both 401(k) and IRA? (Yes, and here’s why) 17:59 Roth > Traditional > Brokerage: A savings priority guide 18:45 Target-date funds vs. S&P 500 returns—why it’s not apples to apples 20:05 Caller Nathan: Getting married, no kids, and thinking of buying a condo 22:56 Warning: Condos are almost always terrible investments 25:44 Real estate reality check—condos lag, freestanding homes rebound better 27:52 Don’s definitive answer: “I would never own a condo” 28:33 Congress and stock trading: 86% of Americans say it should be banned 30:20 Ro Khanna made 3,000+ trades in 2023… and wants to ban stock trading? 31:52 Why Congress shouldn’t trade stocks—and how index funds are the solution 34:24 Ro Khanna’s $103 million in trades and 149 conflicts of interest 36:46 Wrapping up: Condos, curmudgeons, and Central Florida emptiness Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don and Tom break down the overhyped expectations around recent market returns, referencing Jason Zweig’s analysis of 230 years of stock market data. They emphasize that spending and saving habits matter more than chasing 15% returns, and explain why realistic planning using a 3–6% real return assumption over 30-year rolling periods is more prudent. They also tackle questions about RMD strategies from Vanguard IRAs and the TSP’s F and G bond funds. The show ends with a tongue-in-cheek breakdown of NFL team valuations—yes, the Raiders rank surprisingly high. 0:04 Welcome, fatuousness defined, and realistic investing begins 0:52 Why you shouldn’t expect 15% returns forever—even if you got them 1:52 What Jason Zweig’s long-term data reveals about stock returns 2:51 Bogle warned us not to expect high returns—now what? 4:16 Spending and saving: more important than investing performance 5:08 Don’s “prepaid gains” analogy for future expectations 7:00 Real market returns since 1793—spoiler: they’re not 15% 8:58 Stocks might only beat inflation by 3%—and that’s still a win 9:45 Start saving early: waiting until 50 is a losing game 10:18 How to plan with lower expected returns (realistic scenarios) 11:56 Use expected return to guide your savings rate (3% = save 20%) 13:45 “You weren’t smart. You were lucky.” Now diversify. 15:31 Tom’s wife dreads football season—Don celebrates Chiefs loss 18:42 Listener RMD question: Which ETFs get tapped at Vanguard? 19:29 Bonds are back: fixed income up ~6% this year 20:24 Rebalancing vs. just selling: how to handle RMDs smartly 21:04 Raiders rank #4 in NFL valuations… but why? 24:36 Top NFL team values: Cowboys rule, Cardinals drool 27:27 Arizona sports: low attendance, low valuations 28:59 TSP question: F fund vs. G fund—what to use, when 30:25 Don favors the G fund for simplicity and ballast 31:45 Tom and Don disagree—F fund might return more, but… 32:26 Don’s vegetable-spiked coffee and Justin’s final TSP allocation 34:13 Listener Barbara has multiple annuities—Don and Tom say, “Yikes” 35:47 Why you probably talked to a salesperson, not a fiduciary 37:04 The free Appella consultation is steak-free and no-pressure Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don and Tom dive into the emotional, financial, and practical realities of supporting adult children. From layoffs to loans, down payments to dog surprises, this episode tackles the growing trend of parents funding their 20- and 30-something offspring—and how to do it without wrecking your retirement. Plus, listener questions about gifting stock, promissory note scams, and why shady annuity sellers keep showing up on the airwaves. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this Friday Q&A edition, Don fields listener questions on rolling over a large 401(k) after a layoff, whether IRA money should ever be used to buy real estate, Vanguard’s new active ETF offerings, choosing between Vanguard and Schwab 2035 target-date funds, and whether to treat a foreign apartment purchase as part of an investment portfolio. Along the way, he highlights diversification benefits, cautions against high-cost self-directed IRAs, and emphasizes that homes are assets but not investments. 0:04 Friday intro, royal “we,” and reminder on how to submit questions 1:42 Scott from Louisiana: rolling over a $1M retirement account after layoff 4:07 Scott’s follow-up: using IRA funds to buy real estate 5:42 Caller asks about Vanguard’s new active ETFs and why indexes still win 8:02 Sylvia from Connecticut: comparing Vanguard vs Schwab 2035 target-date funds 11:12 Caller from Colombia: whether to factor a paid-off foreign apartment into portfolio allocation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don and Tom dismantle the “passive bubble” trope, walk through Morningstar’s active/passive scorecard (great one-year anecdotes vs brutal long-run stats), and recap the steady shift of investor dollars toward indexing. A caller tries to drag the show into politics via data independence (BLS/Fed), prompting a level-headed reminder that markets price reality over rhetoric. The TSP’s revamped I Fund gets kudos for finally adding emerging markets (with a nudge to pair it with value tilts outside TSP). Two meaty segments cover long-term care: costs, weak benefits on traditional policies, when hybrids can make sense, and why many households effectively self-insure or rely on Medicaid as the backstop. Another caller asks about Die With Zero; verdict: great mindset—if your plan already covers worst-case needs. 0:05 Holiday opener, calls invite, “passive is a bubble?” setup 2:06 Is price discovery “broken” if money flows to index funds? 2:40 Active still >50% of U.S. fund assets; global passive ≈20% AUM 4:22 Morningstar barometer: 42% of active beat in 1-yr… so 58% didn’t 6:36 Long-run stats: 3-yr 17.7%, 5-yr 8.2%, 10-yr 2.5%, 15–20-yr ≈~1% of active beat 8:32 Flows: from 1 in 20 dollars passive (’97) to 1 in 2 today; costs matter 10:58 Caller (Sammamish): data independence, politics, rates, inflation risk; market effects vs reality 16:19 Inbox: TSP update—I Fund now includes EM; still thin on value/small tilts 18:32 Why add small/value (incl. intl); performance pops don’t change the case 22:26 Caller (LTC): traditional vs hybrid; math on premiums, caps, Medicaid backstop 26:37 Basic quote math: ~$1,900/yr at 60 for ~$150k cap; lump-sum hybrids trade-offs 29:10 Caller (Maya, Los Altos): Die With Zero—great if plan covers tail risks; most retirees can’t 34:38 Caller (Americus, GA): Mutual of Omaha pitch; self-insure debate; taxes/deductions misconceptions 38:55 Wrap: how to send questions; where to get advice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don and Tom mark Labor Day weekend with a lively discussion of the so-called September Effect—Wall Street’s superstition about historically negative returns in September. They remind listeners that short-term market timing is a losing strategy and that knowing (not guessing) your risk tolerance and asset allocation matters most. The conversation ranges from Florida’s endless summer and biblical rains to ETF overload, collective investment trusts, tax quirks, and the futility of dodging volatility. Along the way, there’s humor about Costco, fertilizer, wrong numbers, and shameless plugs for Don’s LitReading podcast. 0:04 Labor Day banter, Florida heat, biblical rains, Asheville trip 2:12 September Effect explained—history and hype 4:41 Why you should know, not do, with your portfolio 6:15 Average September returns since 1928 and investor psychology 8:28 Market timing pitfalls and missing best days 10:28 Costco’s Jim Sinegal quote and life’s sugar vs. manure metaphor 12:29 Bogle wisdom: don’t peek at your portfolio 14:05 Listener correction: senior deduction phase-out details 19:14 Don plugs LitReading’s return with an O. Henry story 20:34 ETF explosion—4,300 funds in U.S., 12,000 worldwide 26:15 How to eliminate bad ETFs (fees, leverage, active management) 29:11 Don tests a new GPS analogy ad for Appella Wealth 31:12 Listener question on state tax burdens (California vs. Washington) 34:05 Call-in about 401(k) funds converting to CITs 37:19 CIT regulations, reporting, and transparency explained 39:39 Apple vs. Spotify podcast listener demographics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tom kicks off with a check-in on bond market returns, reminding listeners that bonds are about stability, not yield-chasing. He’s joined by advisor Roxy Butner, who helps answer listener questions about fixed-allocation vs. target-date funds, how much international exposure is enough, Ameriprise “CL” fund share classes with high fees, and whether hybrid long-term care annuity products are worth considering. Together they emphasize cost awareness, simplicity, and aligning investments with real-life needs instead of sales-driven products. 0:04 Intro and bond returns update (BND, DFIGX, SWSBX) 2:30 Why bonds belong in portfolios despite modest returns 2:47 Mailbag intro with Roxy Butner 3:13 Shelly asks about fixed-allocation vs target-date funds 5:34 Balanced vs LifeStrategy funds and international exposure 7:01 Frank asks about U.S. vs international allocation split 8:23 AVGE, DFAW, and “overthinking” the international percentage 10:39 Decades of U.S. vs international performance 11:15 Angie asks about Ameriprise “CL” fund share classes 13:32 Expense ratios and fiduciary concerns 14:54 Comparing low-cost index alternatives 15:18 Ford asks about hybrid LTC annuity products 17:30 Income planning first vs peeling off money for LTC 18:34 Real-life client experiences with LTC riders 20:33 Policy complexity, surrender decisions, and care costs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Don fields listener questions from Asheville in this Friday Q&A edition. Topics include calculating investment returns with XIRR versus simple time-weighted methods, rebalancing U.S. vs. international allocations in a Vanguard portfolio, whether children can have multiple custodial accounts (and why 529s may be better), AVGE versus VT and why factor tilts matter long-term, and a skeptical look at Frank Vasquez’s Risk Parity Radio strategy that leans on commodities and “golden ratio” portfolio construction. 1:03 How to calculate investment returns (XIRR vs. time-weighted) 4:19 Portfolio allocation: VTI + VT + BND vs. simpler mix 7:10 Custodial UTMA accounts vs. 529s 9:24 AVGE vs. VT: expense ratios, factor tilts, long-term logic 15:06 Frank Vasquez and Risk Parity Radio critique Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of Talking Real Money digs into recency bias—our human tendency to expect the future to look like the recent past—and how it’s quietly reshaping retirement portfolios. Don and Tom examine rising stock allocations in 401(k)s and target-date funds, even among older investors, and why this performance-chasing is dangerous. They highlight the risks of target-date fund managers pandering to investors, the importance of rebalancing, and the need to stick to long-term allocation plans based on risk tolerance, not market trends. Listener questions cover immediate annuities, 529-to-Roth transfer rules, and whether paying an advisor’s 1% fee is worth it compared with DIY investing. 0:04 Recency bias explained and why it drives poor investment decisions 1:05 Stock allocations hitting record levels in 401(k)s across all age groups 2:48 Risk of higher stock exposure for investors in their 60s 3:33 Target-date funds increasing equity exposure and chasing performance 5:00 Example of an investor going from 60/40 to 90% stocks 7:00 Post-2008 shifts: investors moved into bonds when they should’ve been buying stocks 7:26 Importance of rebalancing twice a year to avoid creeping U.S./large-cap overweight 9:00 Why boring diversification still works long-term 11:26 How to check your target-date fund allocation on Morningstar 12:41 Active vs. index target-date funds: Vanguard vs. T. Rowe/Nuveen 14:03 Listener Q: Fixed immediate annuity trade-offs (“wizards of odds”) 17:49 Why insurers win: payout math vs. life expectancy 18:59 Why Don & Tom dislike most annuities but tolerate immediate annuities in some cases 20:52 DIY alternative: 5% bond/CD ladder vs. annuity payout 21:25 What if you get 6%? Extending sustainable income to 23 years 21:37 Listener Q: Rules for rolling 529 funds into a Roth IRA 23:00 Key 529 limits: 15-year account age, 5-year holding period, $35k lifetime cap 23:14 Listener Q: DIY investing vs. hiring an advisor at 1% AUM 24:22 Why a good advisor’s value is about more than returns—taxes, withdrawals, estate planning 25:42 Vanguard’s Advisor Alpha and why behavior coaching adds value Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tom Cock takes the reins while Don visits family, leading a live call-in show that covers liquidity risks in private investments and university endowments, skepticism over deferred income annuities, housing sale costs, Vanguard ETF gaps, the importance of diversification beyond the S&P 500, and why long-term investing discipline beats reacting to short-term volatility. Callers ask about annuities, real estate commissions, balanced ETFs, 100% stock allocations, and Wellington vs. total market strategies, with Tom stressing global diversification, risk awareness, and building portfolios for real life rather than chasing products or peer pressure. 0:04 Tom hosts solo, Don away visiting his mom 0:51 Liquidity lessons from elite college endowments and alternatives 2:56 Why liquidity matters for retirement and emergencies 6:21 Caller Rich: $2M assets, pension, Social Security, annuity concerns, Tom warns against deferred income annuities 11:46 Caller Will: real estate commissions after lawsuits, Tom says budget ~10% of sale price 15:09 Tom warns about too-good-to-be-true “8% guarantees” 16:26 Caller Catherine: asks why Vanguard lacks a balanced ETF; Tom suggests DIY mix or wait for rollout 21:40 Tom stresses ignoring TikTok “advice” and staying the course; examples of small-cap rebounds 25:31 Global small/value stocks outperform S&P this year—own them all 26:49 Caller Joe: 100% S&P 500 allocation in retirement accounts; Tom warns about concentration, suggests global diversification 32:56 Caller Alan: Wellington Fund vs. more equities; Tom favors index funds and broader global exposure 37:28 Risk quiz, portfolio planning, and building for your own needs vs. peer influence Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tom Cock hosts this week’s Talking Real Money solo while Don visits his mom. He reflects on Appella Wealth’s annual client event, where clients talked more about travel, grandkids, and weather than money—showing that the firm’s real value is helping people worry less about markets and more about life. Tom takes listener calls covering whether to renew CDs or move into bond funds, the high costs of closed-end muni funds, portfolio planning with Roth IRAs and target-date funds, estate planning with mutual fund capital gains, and frustrations with annuities. Throughout, Tom stresses planning, simplicity, ignoring noise, and putting money in its proper place. 0:04 Don out visiting his mom, Tom hosts solo 0:48 Market news and Appella Wealth annual client event recap 2:36 What clients really talk about: travel, family, weather—not money 3:25 Why clients worry less about markets when planning is in place 5:59 The importance of advisors (or DIY) in managing rebalancing, taxes, RMDs 7:09 Caller Bill (MN): Renew $200k CDs at 4% vs move into bond fund 11:25 Caller Jim (TX): High-fee muni closed-end funds, whether to sell 13:20 Caller Tom (VA): Planning Roth IRA allocations, target-date funds at Fidelity 18:53 Caller Gene (MD): $8M estate, big mutual fund gains, reducing taxes for heirs 28:12 Caller Bernadette (WA): Regrets annuity with USAA, options for moving it 31:18 Tom’s guidance: why annuities disappoint and fiduciary help matters 32:41 How to “put money in its place” if you’re a DIY investor Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices