The John Batchelor Show

Russia's Multi-Front War: European Drones, Space Threats, and Tomahawk Missiles Guests: John Hardie, Bill Roggio John Hardie discusses Russia's expanding conflict, which includes drones over European airports like Munich and Berlin, viewed by Denmark as Russian "gray zone" activity aimed at testing Western response. NATO has been slow to adopt cost-effective counter-drone measures, unlike Ukraine's use of mobile fire groups. Russia is also engaging in anti-satellite activity, with Russian satellites reportedly stalking UK military satellites in low Earth orbit. Russia continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure with massive barrages as winter approaches. The US is reportedly considering supplying longer-range Tomahawk missiles to allies for transfer to Ukraine. These missiles could strike deep into Russian military-industrial sites, which, coupled with economic pressure, might convince Putin to pause the war. 1825 BELGIUM

Russia's Multi-Front War: European Drones, Space Threats, and Tomahawk Missiles Guests: John Hardie, Bill Roggio John Hardie discusses Russia's expanding conflict, which includes drones over European airports like Munich and Berlin, viewed by Denmark as Russian "gray zone" activity aimed at testing Western response. NATO has been slow to adopt cost-effective counter-drone measures, unlike Ukraine's use of mobile fire groups. Russia is also engaging in anti-satellite activity, with Russian satellites reportedly stalking UK military satellites in low Earth orbit. Russia continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure with massive barrages as winter approaches. The US is reportedly considering supplying longer-range Tomahawk missiles to allies for transfer to Ukraine. These missiles could strike deep into Russian military-industrial sites, which, coupled with economic pressure, might convince Putin to pause the war. 1811 BRUSSELS

Syria's Search for Stability: Security Deals, the Golan Heights, and the Gaza Impact Guests: Ahmad Sharawi, Bill Roggio Ahmad Sharawi and Bill Roggio discuss Syrian President al-Sharaa's focus on stability and his pursuit of a security agreement with Israel. Negotiating away the Golan Heights is considered a non-starter for al-Sharaa's survival, as his father, Hafez Assad, is often seen as the man who lost the territory, and al-Sharaa would be domestically labeled a traitor by all segments of the Syrian population, including hardliners. A full peace agreement is out of the question, but a limited security agreement might be possible, allowing Israel to maintain its presence in the Golan Heights while potentially withdrawing from areas entered after the fall of the Assad regime. The end of the war in Gaza is expected to expedite negotiations between Syria and Israel toward a security deal, as it affects the optics of al-Sharaa making such a move in the Arab world. Al-Sharaa's main priority is removing Israeli presence and stopping Israeli air strikes inside southern Syria 1920 ALEPPO ,

Europe Responds to Russian Harassment Without US Lead Guest: Mary Kissel Mary Kissel analyzes the European emergency summit in Copenhagen, convened due to alarming mysterious drone activity over European airports, likely instigated by Russia. This harassment, which includes potential risks like hitting a passenger jet, aims to create confusion and test the resolve of the continent. The outcome, focusing on a "drone wall," suggests that the EU is starting to take more responsibility for its own defense, a long-term goal of US presidents. Kissel notes that the US absence from the prominent conversation does not signal the end of NATO. She also highlights that politicians like Starmer and Meloni are moving toward stronger defense measures, realizing that their voting bases are unhappy with current economic and security outcomes 1884 BRUSSELS

Taiwanese Resilience and Japan's New Conservative Leader Guest: Scott Harold Scott Harold discusses Taiwan's resilience, rooted in its democratic rule of law and high societal trust, which China attempts to undermine. Taiwanese self-identity is deepening, particularly among younger generations. However, concerns exist in Taipei that the US administration's "Fortress America" focus is inducing doubt about Washington's commitment to Taiwan's defense, a doubt China exploits. Harold also covers the historic rise of Takaichi Sanae as the LDP head in Japan, positioning her to become the first female Prime Minister. Takaichi is a conservative acolyte of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo who emphasized increased defense spending to enhance the US-Japan alliance. Her selection was seen as an effort to bring conservative votes back to the LDP, responding to growing political frustration and capitalizing on sentiment against an influx of foreigners.

Taiwanese Resilience and Japan's New Conservative Leader Guest: Scott Harold Scott Harold discusses Taiwan's resilience, rooted in its democratic rule of law and high societal trust, which China attempts to undermine. Taiwanese self-identity is deepening, particularly among younger generations. However, concerns exist in Taipei that the US administration's "Fortress America" focus is inducing doubt about Washington's commitment to Taiwan's defense, a doubt China exploits. Harold also covers the historic rise of Takaichi Sanae as the LDP head in Japan, positioning her to become the first female Prime Minister. Takaichi is a conservative acolyte of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo who emphasized increased defense spending to enhance the US-Japan alliance. Her selection was seen as an effort to bring conservative votes back to the LDP, responding to growing political frustration and capitalizing on sentiment against an influx of foreigners. 1935 TAIWAN UNDER JAPAN

Iran's Strategy, Setbacks for Hezbollah, and the Chinese Economic Lifeline Guest: Jonathan Sayah Jonathan Sayah discusses US efforts to bolster the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with $230 million, intending to empower the national identity over sectarian militias like Hezbollah. Iran consistently seeks to arm its proxies, but Hezbollah is currently on its back foot, having lost leadership, money, and the Syria corridor due to Israeli attacks and the new regime in Syria. A peace deal in Gaza would significantly weaken Iran, as stability does not favor the Islamic Republic, which thrives by exploiting regional instability. The morale of the Islamic Republic has crumbled due to external defeats and internal incompetence (failing infrastructure, high inflation). Furthermore, Iran relies heavily on China to purchase oil, utilizing a money-laundering network to evade US sanctions, securing an economic lifeline for the regime in return for natural resources and infrastructure projects. 1924 ALEPPO

Iran's Strategy, Setbacks for Hezbollah, and the Chinese Economic Lifeline Guest: Jonathan Sayah Jonathan Sayah discusses US efforts to bolster the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with $230 million, intending to empower the national identity over sectarian militias like Hezbollah. Iran consistently seeks to arm its proxies, but Hezbollah is currently on its back foot, having lost leadership, money, and the Syria corridor due to Israeli attacks and the new regime in Syria. A peace deal in Gaza would significantly weaken Iran, as stability does not favor the Islamic Republic, which thrives by exploiting regional instability. The morale of the Islamic Republic has crumbled due to external defeats and internal incompetence (failing infrastructure, high inflation). Furthermore, Iran relies heavily on China to purchase oil, utilizing a money-laundering network to evade US sanctions, securing an economic lifeline for the regime in return for natural resources and infrastructure projects. 18666 TEHRAN

Life, Economy, and Chinese Threat Perception in Taipei, Taiwan Guest: Anne Stevenson-Yang Anne Stevenson-Yang reports from Taipei, Taiwan, a vibrant economy and republic vital to the global economy due to TSMC, the microchip maker. Taiwan is characterized by a wonderful public culture where honesty and personal safety are prevalent. Despite its high-tech focus, the economy suffers from problems common elsewhere, including increasing income inequality, unaffordability, high housing prices, and stagnant wages. Regarding geopolitical tensions, the average Taiwanese person is largely immune to the constant threat from China, having heard talk of belligerence for the last 30 years. However, there is apprehension related to China's grim economic winter and growing concern that the US protective umbrella may be receding, leading to more interest in investing in Taiwan's own defense. 1925 TAIPEI

Houthi Attacks, Sanctions, and the Implications of a Gaza Ceasefire Guest: Bridget Toumey Bridget Toumey reports that the Houthis, who are well-organized and disciplined, attacked a Dutch ship in the Gulf of Aden and continued launching at least one missile and one drone at Israel, a slower pace than the nearly daily attacks seen in September. The Houthis also sanctioned 13 US oil and energy companies and their CEOs, citing the war in Gaza and US support for Israel. This announcement mirrored US sanctions and may be a precursor to resuming attacks against US-connected vessels. Israel's counter-Houthi air strikes have hit targets but have failed to deter the group, which also exploits connections with other terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). If the Gaza conflict ends, the Houthis might need a new casus belli to justify attacks, but they are willing to invent excuses if Iran wishes to continue stirring chaos. 1926 SANAA

The Trump Peace Plan and the Problematic Role of the Palestinian Authority Guest: Peter Berkowitz Peter Berkowitz examines the Trump peace plan, which calls for an immediate ceasefire, the release of 50 remaining hostages (living and dead) within 72 hours, and the disarming of Hamas. Hamas disarmament is a crucial Israeli war aim. The central challenge is the future role of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Berkowitz argues is corrupt, incompetent, weak, and lacks democratic legitimacy, having not held elections since 2005. International recognition of a Palestinian state is viewed as counterproductive, as it rewards proponents of armed struggle. The plan anticipates a pathway toward a Palestinian state only after substantial and comprehensive PA reform, including ceasing terror incitement and abandoning the goal of Israel's destruction. Given the security challenges and the history of Palestinian rejection of a state coexisting with Israel, the realistic possibility of a two-state solution is seen as many years in the future.

The Trump Peace Plan and the Problematic Role of the Palestinian Authority Guest: Peter Berkowitz Peter Berkowitz examines the Trump peace plan, which calls for an immediate ceasefire, the release of 50 remaining hostages (living and dead) within 72 hours, and the disarming of Hamas. Hamas disarmament is a crucial Israeli war aim. The central challenge is the future role of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Berkowitz argues is corrupt, incompetent, weak, and lacks democratic legitimacy, having not held elections since 2005. International recognition of a Palestinian state is viewed as counterproductive, as it rewards proponents of armed struggle. The plan anticipates a pathway toward a Palestinian state only after substantial and comprehensive PA reform, including ceasing terror incitement and abandoning the goal of Israel's destruction. Given the security challenges and the history of Palestinian rejection of a state coexisting with Israel, the realistic possibility of a two-state solution is seen as many years in the future. 1898 RAMALAH

PREVIEW: Taiwan's Culture, Safety, and Economic Woes Amid AI Transformation Guest: Anne Stevenson-Yang This is a conversation between John Batchelor and Anne Stevenson-Yang, who has recently arrived in Taipei, Taiwan. Stevenson-Yang praises Taiwan's wonderful public culture, safety, security, honesty, and accessibility, noting that one can leave money on the street or walk out late without worry. However, she acknowledges that Taiwan suffers from common global issues, including increasing income inequality, unaffordability, rising housing prices, and stagnant wages. While much of the economy is focused on electronics and fabs, these industries do not employ a massive number of people. The conversation also touches upon the worldwide, accelerating transformation of all endeavors—including productivity, education, and work—to an AI base. 1925 TAIPEI

PREVIEW: Israeli Strikes Hit Houthi Targets but Fail to Achieve Deterrence Guest: Bridget Toumey John Batchelor speaks with Bridget Toumey of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies about the lack of success in deterring the Houthis following failed US and British campaigns. The discussion focuses on a recent Israeli strike in late September. Initial reports suggested the Israeli attack was a success in targeting Houthi infrastructure. However, Toumey states that while strikes hit their targets, they have not managed to deter the Houthis. Deterrence likely requires much more significant action than infrastructure strikes, such as killing the leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, or senior military command. Alternatively, incurring costs on Iran for arming the Houthis might be necessary. Israel is expected to continue air strikes, though deterrence remains unachieved.

PREVIEW: US Tomahawk Missile Transfer to Ukraine Considered for Strikes on Russian Infrastructure Guest:John Hardie John Batchelor speaks with John Hardie of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) regarding the potential US transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine via Europe. The Tomahawk is a cruise missile with a range of 1,500 miles (2,000 kilometers), typically carrying conventional weaponry, although it is capable of carrying a nuclear-tipped warhead. If supplied, the Tomahawks would bring Russian infrastructure, especially war-fighting associated sites, into range. The move is viewed as a "counterpunch" due to Trump's reported frustration with Putin's involvement in Ukraine peace talks. The potential Tomahawk supply is reportedly being considered alongside the Trump administration's decision to provide intelligence for Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. These long-range missiles could target key Russian defense industrial sites, such as Shahed-type drone factories in Alabuga. This possible transfer is noted as a potential escalation.

PREVIEW: European Allies Consider 'Drone Wall' Amid Russian Harassment and Political Confusion Guest:Mary Kissel The discussion between John Batchelor and Mary Kissel centers on an extraordinary emergency meeting held in Copenhagen by the EU and NATO—not including the US—to address repeated harassment by drones presumed to be launched by Russia. The allies are discussing creating a "drone wall." Mary Kissel emphasizes that the purpose of Russia's actions is to exploit vulnerabilities and create "uncertainty, confusion, deterrence." When President Putin observes Europe from Moscow, he sees nations with "weaker defense capabilities, weaker ties to Washington, and weaker political systems." Specifically, many governments, such as those in Germany, Belgium, and France, are weak, noting that the French government recently collapsed after less than a month. Mary Kissel quotes her colleague, Tom Tugendhat, outlining Russia's aggressive actions in the UK alone, which include using chemical weapons, nuclear poisons, committing sabotage, attempting espionage, and threatening nuclear attack. Ultimately, the goal of Russia's "poking and prodding" is to gauge the reaction of these nations and see if they will implement the drone wall or respond with "just words."

PREVIEW: Possible False Flag Operation Against US Embassy in Caracas Guests: Alejandro Piña Esclusá and Ernesto Araújo The conversation between John Batchelor, Alejandro Piña Esclusá, and Ernesto Araújo focuses on the urgent situation in Caracas, particularly a possible attempt on the American embassy allegedly being planned by the Maduro regime. Alejandro Piña Esclusá brought information indicating that Maduro intends to stage the event, making it appear as if he is rescuing the embassy from "interlopers" or "invaders." Ernesto Araújo warned that this planned action is "very serious" and demonstrates Maduro's intent to increase his negotiating capital with the US and Donald Trump. The strategy involves having the embassy invaded, denying responsibility by claiming it is a false flag, and then using the embassy's return as a bargaining chip. Maduro would use this element to negotiate conditions, possibly demanding that the US "leave me in power" or "leave me in power under such and such conditions." This desperate move is being pursued because Maduro currently "doesn't have much in terms of bargaining chips anymore," leading him to look for one last element to introduce into negotiations.

PREVIEW: Historic Election of Takaichi Sanae as LDP Leader and Presumed Next Prime Minister of JapanGuest: Scott Harold John Batchelor's conversation with Scott Harold focuses on the newly elected head of the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) in Japan, Takaichi Sanae, who is presumed to be the next prime minister. Ms. Takaichi's political background is that of a conservative LDP member and an acolyte of the late Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. Her victory was attributed to two main factors. First, she was the most conservative candidate at a time when the LDP was worried about losing conservative votes to another party that sought to emulate parts of the MAGA ideology. The party viewed her as the best candidate to retrieve those votes. Second, while her competitor was the younger, more liberal son of a former prime minister, LDP voters and legislative members were ultimately "more comfortable voting for an older conservative woman." Additionally, a major scandal involving derogatory remarks posted by her competitor's supporters helped drive down his support late in the race. This is a historic election as Ms. Takaichi will be the first female Japanese prime minister. She has described herself as an emulator of Margaret Thatcher and emphasizes boosting the Japanese economy with substantial spending, including on defense, to enhance the US-Japan alliance.

Charles's Return and the Fate of the Prize Guest: Eric Jay Dolin Barnard and his marooned men were eventually rescued by two British whaling ships and taken to Lima, Peru. Before starting his arduous, uncertain two-year return journey to New York, Barnard regretfully gave his beloved dog, Cent, who was critical to their survival, to a British whaling captain, believing Cent would have a better life. Barnard returned home virtually bankrupt, having signed a $5,000 bond. The "lawfare" over the Nanina eventually concluded when Murray and Son successfully appealed the prize court's initial decision favoring D'Aranda. Murray and Son received payment for the brig's value, leaving D'Aranda with nothing. Though initially vowing to quit the sea, Charles returned to sealing, later becoming a port warden, and published a book about his experiences in 1829.

Prize Greed and the Abandonment of Barnard Guest: Eric Jay Dolin Charles Barnard offered the British castaways a humanitarian deal: rescue them in exchange for salvaging the Isabella. This accord was shattered when HMS Nancy, commanded by Lieutenant William Peter D'Aranda, arrived. D'Aranda, seeking personal fame, immediately disregarded the agreement, prioritizing personal financial gain through the prize system, which was widely viewed as "semi-piracy." D'Aranda seized the Nanina as a prize and declared the Americans prisoners of war. Crucially, D'Aranda callously abandoned Barnard and four others (including three British) who were ashore hunting food for the entire group. Marooned for 534 days, Barnard's survival hinged on the help of his dog, Cent, who was vital for hunting powerful, four-tusked wild boars.