The John Batchelor Show

SHOW 11-21-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT UKRAINE FIRST HOUR 9-915 HEADLINE: Las Vegas Shifts Focus with Formula 1 and Lower-End Tourism; California Politics Hit by Indictments GUEST: Jeff Bliss Jeff Bliss reports that the Formula 1 race on the Las Vegas city circuit is attracting major spectacle and high-end tourism, though the city is also attempting recovery by catering to lower-income demographics, evidenced by positive activity at the Excalibur Casino, while facing major competition from a new Indian casino near Bakersfield, California, operated by the Tahone tribe and twice the size of Caesars Palace. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom's former chief of staff, Dana Williamson, and four others were indicted on 23 counts of fraud. Additionally, an investigation into the Palisades fire revealed that state workers ordered the LA Fire Department to back off a previously burned area that rekindled, allegedly to protect endangered plants. 915-930 HEADLINE: Industrial Policy and Tariffs Lack Coherence; Removal of Food Tariffs Implies Inflationary EffectGUEST: Veronique De Rugy Veronique De Rugy discusses US industrial policy, noting the trade deficit has increased despite tariffs, and the administration's decision to remove tariffs on food items—goods not produced domestically—is seen as an implicit admission that tariffs contribute to the "affordability crisis" because tariffs are a tax primarily borne by American consumers. The goals behind tariffs have shifted from fighting China to raising revenue, and the largest tariff exemption is for computer parts, indicating an understanding that tariffs could contradict other goals like energy abundance. De Rugyargues that US economic power stems from innovation and a willingness to invest, making industrial policy involving tariffs and seeking foreign investment largely unnecessary and potentially harmful. 930-945 HEADLINE: Mixed US Economic Signals: Strong GDP Contrasts Low Consumer Sentiment; AI Adoption Increases GUEST: Gene Marks Gene Marks discusses the US economy, noting that third-quarter GDP growth is estimated near 4%, contrasting sharply with record-low consumer sentiment in a "tale of two economies" where salaried workers receiving pay raises of 5–7% are outpacing 3% inflation and continuing to spend, while hourly workers struggle. Despite job growth in construction, leading indicators like the architectural billings index show contraction for 11 months. In technology, 88% of major companies are adopting artificial intelligence, though scaling remains limited, with AI already replacing low-level programmers and enhancing customer service. Agentic AI, capable of performing complex tasks, is predicted to impact fields like accounting and marketing by 2027–2028. However, Marks argues that most current major corporate layoffs stem from typical corporate bloat and mismanagement rather than AI, at least not yet. 945-10 SECOND HOUR 10-1015 HEADLINE: Lancaster County Economy Booms Despite Low Consumer Confidence; Local Entrepreneurs ThriveGUEST: Jim McTague Jim McTague reports that the economy in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, is strong, suggesting it mirrors the greater US economy despite reports of low consumer confidence, observing robust traffic at tourist destinations like Kitchen Kettle Village, a shopping locale established in 1954, with spending largely supported by well-off boomers. Local entrepreneurs are experiencing great success—a dealer selling eclectic electric lamps in Park City Mall is already earning $4,500 per week at the start of the holiday season, and high volume at Costco, where the Amish are major buyers, further indicates available disposable income. McTague concludes that the real economy on Main Street is strong and likely headed for a blockbuster Christmas season. 1015-1030 HEADLINE: Climate Change Threatens Iconic Italian Cheeses;...

2/2 HEADLINE: Scenario: Russia Attacks NATO Member Estonia; Europe's "Kantian Dreams" and Lack of Readiness Prevent Article 5 Response GUEST: Jakub Grygiel Jakub Grygiel analyzes the German book If Russia Wins, which outlines a scenario where Russia attacks NATO member Estonia around 2028 following a stalled conflict in Ukraine, capturing Narva and an island before halting its advance and creating confusion within NATO. Europeans, living in "Kantian dreams of eternal peace," prioritize a quick end to the conflict and fear escalation, and the scenario posits that the US President decides a World War III over a "tiny piece of land" is not worthwhile, leading Estonia to forego invoking NATO's Article 5 out of fear of alliance rejection. Grygielnotes that decades of demilitarization leave Europe unprepared for war, highlighting that US reinforcements could take 45 days to move and societies lack the political will to fund necessary rearmament.

1/2 HEADLINE: Scenario: Russia Attacks NATO Member Estonia; Europe's "Kantian Dreams" and Lack of Readiness Prevent Article 5 Response GUEST: Jakub Grygiel Jakub Grygiel analyzes the German book If Russia Wins, which outlines a scenario where Russia attacks NATO member Estonia around 2028 following a stalled conflict in Ukraine, capturing Narva and an island before halting its advance and creating confusion within NATO. Europeans, living in "Kantian dreams of eternal peace," prioritize a quick end to the conflict and fear escalation, and the scenario posits that the US President decides a World War III over a "tiny piece of land" is not worthwhile, leading Estonia to forego invoking NATO's Article 5 out of fear of alliance rejection. Grygielnotes that decades of demilitarization leave Europe unprepared for war, highlighting that US reinforcements could take 45 days to move and societies lack the political will to fund necessary rearmament.

CONTINUED 2/2 Henry Sokolski states that Saudi Crown Prince MBS's goal is to obtain a bomb option, and while the new US-Saudi agreement does not include assistance with nuclear fuel production, a reactor still provides the necessary "cover" used by countries like Iran. MBS has made clear he will acquire a bomb if Iran does, regardless of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Sokolski also discusses the US military's Janus program for small reactors, initially conceived for vulnerable front-line bases but pushed back to remote areas like Alaska and the lower 48 due to concerns about drones and vulnerability. Finally, the US may be moving toward nuclear socialism—government ownership of commercial reactors, potentially funded by Japan—to encourage commercialization even without secured market contracts. 1927

1/2 Henry Sokolski states that Saudi Crown Prince MBS's goal is to obtain a bomb option, and while the new US-Saudi agreement does not include assistance with nuclear fuel production, a reactor still provides the necessary "cover" used by countries like Iran. MBS has made clear he will acquire a bomb if Iran does, regardless of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Sokolski also discusses the US military's Janus program for small reactors, initially conceived for vulnerable front-line bases but pushed back to remote areas like Alaska and the lower 48 due to concerns about drones and vulnerability. Finally, the US may be moving toward nuclear socialism—government ownership of commercial reactors, potentially funded by Japan—to encourage commercialization even without secured market contracts. 1919

CONTINUED 8/8 Michael McFaul's book Autocrats Versus Democrats argues that Putinism is driven by anti-Western ideology, making Putin a risk-taker, and McFaul believes the US erred by lacking a robust response and failing to provide arms after the 2014 Crimea invasion, stressing that helping Ukraine win is essential to inspire Russian democrats.... 1917

CONTINUED 7/8 Michael McFaul's book Autocrats Versus Democrats argues that Putinism is driven by anti-Western ideology, making Putin a risk-taker, and McFaul believes the US erred by lacking a robust response and failing to provide arms after the 2014 Crimea invasion, stressing that helping Ukraine win is essential to inspire Russian democrats.... 1920

CONTINUED 6/8 Michael McFaul's book Autocrats Versus Democrats argues that Putinism is driven by anti-Western ideology, making Putin a risk-taker, and McFaul believes the US erred by lacking a robust response and failing to provide arms after the 2014 Crimea invasion, stressing that helping Ukraine win is essential to inspire Russian democrats. 1917

5/8 Michael McFaul's book Autocrats Versus Democrats argues that Putinism is driven by anti-Western ideology, making Putin a risk-taker, and McFaul believes the US erred by lacking a robust response and failing to provide arms after the 2014 Crimea invasion, stressing that helping Ukraine win is essential to inspire Russian democrats. He asserts that the appeal of autocracy is growing globally and advises that the US must align democracies against autocrats while advocating for human rights, citing the need to support imprisoned publisher Jimmy Lai. Long-term strategy requires the US and its allies to unite, as they are collectively stronger economically and militarily than autocracies, and McFaulstrongly recommends attracting international talent by reversing restrictive immigration policies, calling it a great strength the US is currently losing. 1913

CONTINUED HEADLINE: Private Space Advances (Blue Origin, Rocket Lab) Challenge NASA SLS, EU Space Law CriticizedGUEST: Bob Zimmerman

Bob Zimmerman reports that Blue Origin's New Glenn orbital rocket successfully completed its second launch, including landing the first stage and demonstrating reuse capability comparable to Falcon 9. New Glenn, larger than Falcon 9, is scheduled for upgrades with more powerful BE4 and BE3U engines, making it nearly comparable to NASA's costly and expendable SLS rocket. Rocket Lab set a new annual launch record with 15 successful orbital launches, surpassing Russia's frequency, and has conducted suborbital HASTE launches for military testing. India is upgrading its largest LVM rocket's upper stage for multiple restarts, essential for its space station and crewed missions. The US State Department opposes a proposed European Union space law seeking to impose EU regulations on companies from other nations, potentially discrediting the EU if passed. Finally, NASA has hired startup Catalyst to attempt a daring robotic rescue of the decaying Swift telescope. 1862

Lorenzo Fiori reports that climate change is threatening Italian food production, particularly cheese, due to drought and heat waves in the south, especially the Puglia region, where stressed cows are reducing milk production and impacting specialty cheeses like mozzarella and burrata. Milk cannot be shipped from the north because local water and hay are essential to the unique flavor of southern cheese. Fiori emphasizes that Italian food is a famous brand precisely because it belongs to its territory, criticizing pre-prepared sauces found in Brussels as inauthentic carbonara, which must be made fresh. In Milan, Christmas preparations are underway, with shop windows decorated festively and street lights scheduled to be switched on December 7th. 1947

Jim McTague reports that the economy in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, is strong, suggesting it mirrors the greater US economy despite reports of low consumer confidence, observing robust traffic at tourist destinations like Kitchen Kettle Village, a shopping locale established in 1954, with spending largely supported by well-off boomers. Local entrepreneurs are experiencing great success—a dealer selling eclectic electric lamps in Park City Mall is already earning $4,500 per week at the start of the holiday season, and high volume at Costco, where the Amish are major buyers, further indicates available disposable income. McTague concludes that the real economy on Main Street is strong and likely headed for a blockbuster Christmas season. 1954

CONTINUED HEADLINE: Mixed US Economic Signals: Strong GDP Contrasts Low Consumer Sentiment; AI Adoption Increases GUEST: Gene Marks

Gene Marks discusses the US economy, noting that third-quarter GDP growth is estimated near 4%, contrasting sharply with record-low consumer sentiment in a "tale of two economies" where salaried workers receiving pay raises of 5–7% are outpacing 3% inflation and continuing to spend, while hourly workers struggle. Despite job growth in construction, leading indicators like the architectural billings index show contraction for 11 months. In technology, 88% of major companies are adopting artificial intelligence, though scaling remains limited, with AI already replacing low-level programmers and enhancing customer service. Agentic AI, capable of performing complex tasks, is predicted to impact fields like accounting and marketing by 2027–2028. However, Marks argues that most current major corporate layoffs stem from typical corporate bloat and mismanagement rather than AI, at least not yet. 1947 PAKISTAN

Veronique De Rugy discusses US industrial policy, noting the trade deficit has increased despite tariffs, and the administration's decision to remove tariffs on food items—goods not produced domestically—is seen as an implicit admission that tariffs contribute to the "affordability crisis" because tariffs are a tax primarily borne by American consumers. The goals behind tariffs have shifted from fighting China to raising revenue, and the largest tariff exemption is for computer parts, indicating an understanding that tariffs could contradict other goals like energy abundance. De Rugyargues that US economic power stems from innovation and a willingness to invest, making industrial policy involving tariffs and seeking foreign investment largely unnecessary and potentially harmful. 1947

Jeff Bliss reports that the Formula 1 race on the Las Vegas city circuit is attracting major spectacle and high-end tourism, though the city is also attempting recovery by catering to lower-income demographics, evidenced by positive activity at the Excalibur Casino, while facing major competition from a new Indian casino near Bakersfield, California, operated by the Tahone tribe and twice the size of Caesars Palace. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom's former chief of staff, Dana Williamson, and four others were indicted on 23 counts of fraud. Additionally, an investigation into the Palisades fire revealed that state workers ordered the LA Fire Department to back off a previously burned area that rekindled, allegedly to protect endangered plants.

PREVIEW Pacific Palisades Fire Controversy: State Orders Firefighters to Stand Down Jeff Bliss A fire in Pacific Palisades became a major disaster after a previously burned, smoldering area was allowed to reignite. Video evidence reportedly shows a state worker ordering the LA Fire Department to leave the scene and not extinguish the smoldering underbrush. The stated reason for the order was to protect endangered plants. This response, involving state regulations, is described as "unbelievable foolishness."

PREVIEW NATO Dilemma: Responding to Russian Aggression in Estonia (2028 Scenario) Jakub Grygiel Jakub Grygiel's book, If Russia Wins, explores a scenario years from now where Russia takes the city of Narva in Estonia after a frozen conflict in Ukraine. This action forces NATO to decide whether to invoke Article Five. Responding militarily is difficult because it would likely involve escalation, requiring NATO to strike logistical bases, missile installations, and airports within Russia proper.

PREVIEW Architect's Index Signals Continued Economic Contraction Gene Marks Gene Marks discusses the architect's index, which serves as a leading indicator for the direction of the American economy, forecasting big buildings and high-end residential construction six to twelve months ahead. For the eleventh consecutive month, the index showed contraction, not expansion, indicating a difficult market for architects and mixed, non-encouraging economic pictures overall.