International report

As radiation spread across Europe in April 1986, so did the truth about a political system built on silence. Four decades on, RFI spoke to history and politics professor Oleg Kobtzeff about how the Chernobyl nuclear disaster exposed the USSR's culture of secrecy, and was among the catalysts for its collapse. On 26 April, 1986, a reactor exploded at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in what was then the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, sending a radioactive cloud drifting across Europe. For days, the Soviet Union said nothing. But as radiation alarms sounded in Scandinavia and the truth seeped out, the disaster became something bigger than an industrial accident. It pulled back the curtain on a system built on secrecy – and, some argue, helped bring that system crashing down. Four decades on, the question still resonates: was Chernobyl the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union? Oleg Kobtzeff, associate professor of history and politics at the American University of Paris, says the scale of the disaster was understood almost immediately in Moscow. “You have a complete meltdown of the core of the nuclear plant. We quite often forget the incredibly heroic attempts of the local scientists and the firemen and other responders who managed to prevent the worst.” Those early interventions, he says, prevented an even greater catastrophe, one with potentially global consequences. “A lot of people sacrificed their lives to contain the meltdown." Hiding the endless horror of Chernobyl Culture of secrecy But while the severity of the situation was clear to those in power, their response followed a different script – one shaped by decades of Soviet political conditioning. “Secrecy was part of the political culture, and habits that had gone on for four generations,” said Kobtzeff. “It was unthinkable to be transparent.” From childhood, Soviet citizens were conditioned to see the outside world as hostile and to guard information accordingly. “You are taught that we are surrounded by enemies and spies and we must not disclose any vital information,” Kobtzeff explained. “So obviously there’s going to be about two, three weeks when the authorities keep it under the lid.” But when fallout was detected abroad – in Sweden, Norway and Finland, even parts of France – silence became impossible, particularly at a time when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was seeking to ease Cold War tensions. According to Kobtzeff, Chernobyl was an opportunity. “It became a pretext for Gorbachev and the liberals in the Kremlin to begin the reforms that they had already been thinking about for years." A new transparency What followed marked a sharp break with the past, as Gorbachev faced journalists and answered unscripted questions about the disaster. “He dares to respond candidly,” said Kobtzeff. “Conferences of this sort had never happened since the Bolshevik Revolution.” This shift was immediate and widely understood. “It was seen as an absolute revolution. People understood what was happening even before the word 'perestroika' was pronounced.” But this greater openness came at a cost. By exposing industrial mismanagement, environmental damage and decades of secrecy, the reforms also undermined the legitimacy of the Soviet system. “The tragedy of Gorbachev… is that instead of being seen as a reformer, he’s seen as the last man standing of a completely flawed system,” said Kobtzeff. West pays tribute to Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader who ended Cold War The debate over Chernobyl’s role in the Soviet collapse continues. Some argue the system was already in decline, weakened by economic stagnation and political rigidity. Kobtzeff acknowledges that view, describing the disaster as part of an existing broader malaise. But he is clear on one point – Chernobyl acted as a catalyst. “Whether it’s a symptom or whether it’s completely part of the mechanisms… I don't think it really matters,” he argued. “The important thing to understand is...

Europe is turning to Turkey to fill the security vacuum left by an increasingly unreliable United States. But as Nato's secretary-general was praising Ankara's growing military role this week, the European Commission president was placing Turkey in the same bracket as China and Russia. The contradiction points to a dilemma that is only going to deepen. Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte visited Aselsan, one of Turkey's fast-expanding defence companies and a growing arms supplier to Europe, during a trip to Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday, using the occasion to underline the scale of threats facing the alliance. NATO's southern anchor "Russia's war against Ukraine rages on, China's military modernisation and nuclear expansion continue, and Iran spreads terror and chaos, and you feel this here in Turkey," he said. The visit came days after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered a different message, placing Turkey alongside China and Russia as a competitor rather than an ally or membership applicant. It was a rare public signal of how deep European reservations about Ankara run, even as reliance on Turkish military capacity grows. Europe's uneasy dependency Huseyin Bagci, professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University, says the contrast between Rutte and von der Leyen exposes a fundamental contradiction at the heart of Europe's relationship with Ankara. "What Rutte said and what von der Leyen said are two contradictory statements," he said. "Turkey is becoming less democratic. But the more America separates itself from European security, the more important Turkey will become." That dynamic is already reshaping Nato's architecture. Adana is set to host a new corps headquarters, designated MNC-TUR, under Turkish command, while Istanbul is to become the base of a new maritime command, focused on Black Sea security as part of post-war planning for Ukraine. Serhat Guvenc, a military expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says Turkey's expanding capabilities and operational record make the enlarged role a natural fit. Will Turkey ditch Russian missiles for US military jets? *"Turkey's future contribution may take shape around these existing initiatives," he said, pointing to the wartime grain corridor and the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures task group as foundations to build on. Turkey has also launched an ambitious naval building programme, with modern submarines well suited to Black Sea operations. Yet the question of how far Europe can trust Ankara remains unresolved. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin throughout the Ukraine war. Federico Donelli, a political scientist at the University of Trieste, says the EU is still searching for clarity on where Turkey actually stands. "Turkey has on many occasions adopted a more ambiguous stance, even in relation to the war in Ukraine," he said. "The EU would like to know whether Turkey could be a reliable partner." If Putin wins Ankara argues that its relationship with Moscow is a diplomatic asset, allowing it to serve as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has hosted peace talks between the two sides on several occasions. But Guvenc warns that calculus could shift sharply if Russia emerges victorious. "If peace comes on Putin's terms, the potential Russian threat to Turkey's interests will increase several-fold," he said. "Russia emerging from the conflict with substantial gains will be a very different story." Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies The tension between Turkey's military indispensability and its political unpredictability is set to take centre stage at the Nato summit on 7-8 July in Ankara. With Washington's commitment to European defence still in question, European leaders may find themselves with little choice but to deepen ties with a partner many of them do not fully trust.

Turkey's foreign minister has warned it could be Israel’s "next enemy" as the war with Iran appears headed for closure, and called for a Middle East security pact amid rising tensions between the two countries. "After Iran, Israel cannot live without an enemy – it has to develop a rhetoric to shape public opinion," declared Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in a television interview on Monday. "We see that not only Netanyahu’s administration, but also some figures in the opposition – though not all – are seeking to declare Turkey the new enemy." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become one of the region’s most vocal critics of Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, fuelling a surge in bilateral tensions. In response, Israel accuses Erdogan of backing terrorist organisations, including Hamas, whom Erdogan has called “liberation fighters". Diplomatic ties have withered, leaving only a skeleton crew in each respective embassy. Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes Turkish-Israeli relations have a history of highs and lows, but current tensions are unprecedented, argues Turkish security analyst Arda Mevlutoglu. "Turkey is considering Israel a security threat because of the unpredictability factor of the Israeli government,” he said, noting that Israel’s unpredictability, combined with a breakdown in mutual understanding, is causing deep unease within Ankara’s corridors of power. “Mutual understanding is especially critical when it comes to establishing at least a minimum amount of security environment, and the lack of such ability forces Turkey to take precautionary measures in both diplomatic, strategic and military domains as well,” he said. Baku's 'silent diplomacy' Fidan on Monday also called for the formation of a Middle East security pact – following follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent warning of an emerging radical Sunni alliance in the region, which he said is threatening Israel. Alarmed by the escalating tensions, Azerbaijan – one of the few countries with strong ties to both Turkey and Israel – has quietly entered the fray. “We are behind the scenes through the silent diplomacy, effectively contributing to de-conflict certain elements of the misunderstandings and also building a certain trust and channels of communication between the two parties,” said Hikmet Haciyev, assistant to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and head of the country's Department of Foreign Affairs. Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance strained by opposing stances on Israel With Turkey and Israel both having a military hold in Syria, the country is a potential flashpoint. The Baku talks saw the creation of a hotline between Turkish and Israeli militaries to avoid any accidental clashes between their air forces, which routinely fly over Syria. But with two Israeli ministers last year calling for the assassination of the Syrian President Ahmed al-Assad, a key ally of Erdogan, Syria remains a hotspot, and Fidan warned on Monday that Israel could target Syria after the Iran conflict. Washington's role Turkey expert Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, while acknowledging Baku’s role, says more needs to be done. “I would say tensions between Turkey and Israel are high enough that the United States also has to be involved. And I think there's a wider understanding in Washington that they should play this role." Asli Aydintasbas, head of the Turkey Project at the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank, agrees. Turkey pushes for European missile defence deal amid Iran tensions "Washington certainly has to step in and do more in order to mediate between Turkey and Israel. This is a very, very dangerous rivalry and it has the hallmarks of emerging into a long-term enmity,” she warned. However, Aydintasbas questions Washington’s readiness and ability. “Traditionally, it's been the US role, actually, to mediate...

Following several Iranian missile strikes targeting Turkey, Ankara is accelerating its efforts to create its own missile defence system dubbed the “steel dome”. According to reports, it is in talks to procure Europe's latest anti-missile system. But Ankara’s aspirations are unnerving Israel – as well as its neighbours, Greece and Cyprus. Air raid warnings during an Iranian missile strike on the Turkish city of Adana, home to a Nato airbase, served as a stark reminder of Turkey's vulnerability to such attacks. While all the missiles were intercepted by Nato forces, Turkish security analyst Arda Mevlutoglu says the attacks are spurring Ankara on to procure the French-Italian SAMP/T anti-missile system. "Turkey's existing air defence system inventory, as well as the maturing air defence systems, are not capable of countering medium-range ballistic missiles or long-range ballistic missiles," he said. "So Turkey needs an urgent operational gap filler to address the ballistic missile threats. And the next-generation version of the SAMP/T seems to be the only option." Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes Turkey's technological advances Along with procuring the missile system, Ankara is seeking a joint production and development agreement. Turkish defence companies are making rapid advances in missile technology, and Turkish firms are already working closely with several Italian arms manufacturers, including Leonardo, which is involved in the SAMP/T development. This burgeoning relationship is facilitated by close diplomatic ties between the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, strained Turkish-French relations have blocked Ankara's previous attempts to buy SAMP/T. Paris hasn’t commented on Ankara’s latest efforts, but Alessia Chiriatti of the Institute of International Affairs, an Italian think tank, says Rome will likely be working hard to overcome any French opposition. “It's a window of opportunity, not a guaranteed outcome. The defence and security dossier is very, very central, for both the private sector and the public sector, between Italy and Turkey." Chiriatti says the purchase of the SAMP/T missile system is more than just an arms sale. “The discussions are less about a simple arms purchase, but more about a broader configuration of Turkey's defence strategy and relationship with Europe, and with Italy and France." Ukraine seeks defence ties in Middle East as Zelensky visits Damascus 'Anti-Israeli rhetoric' SAMP/T missiles are seen by Ankara as key to the development of its Steel Dome programme to provide a comprehensive air defence system, akin to Israel’s Iron Dome. However, advances in Turkey’s missile systems aren’t confined to defence. This month saw the unveiling of offensive hypersonic missiles – unnerving Israel, given rising bilateral tensions, warns Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies. "Not a day passes without very harsh rhetoric coming from Turkey towards Israel,” she said. "And it's not just rhetoric that is criticising Israel's actions, [but] many times rhetoric that is delegitimising Israel as a whole." She added: “We see also, of course, the growing Turkish capabilities. Turkey, after the 12-day war in June, said it would advance its missile programme, its long-range and medium-range missile programmes. Israelis are now suffering from the damage missiles do. Israel doesn't completely understand why Turkey needs missiles." Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes Europe's shifting priorities European Union members Greece and Cyprus, which have a number of territorial disputes with Turkey, are also voicing concerns over Ankara’s rearming and, in particular, its missile programme. In the past, Athens has successfully lobbied its European partners – in particular France – over the sale of sophisticated weapons to Turkey. However,...

Iraq is turning to Turkey as an alternative route for its oil exports, as the war in the Middle East continues. The Iraqi move comes as Ankara steps up efforts to capitalise on the shifting diplomatic, economic and security landscape in the region. In a race to find routes that circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has resumed pumping oil through a previously disused pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The Iraqi Minister of Oil, Hayyan Abdul-Ghani al-Sawad, claims that up to a million barrels of oil could be exported via Turkey. The Iran war is also boosting Baghdad's efforts to realise the Iraqi Development Road, a multi-billion euro project to turn Iraq into a transit hub between Asia and Europe via Turkey, says Norman Ricklefs of the geopolitical consultancy, the NAMEA Group. "[The Iran war] is an impetus for [the Iraqi Development Road], to be accelerated. It would be a great project to link Turkey and Iraq closer to together.” The maritime passages with a chokehold on the global economy Turkish influence growing Ricklefs argues that Turkey’s geographic importance to supply chains between Europe and international markets is growing. "Turkey is a corridor state – it's already doing this with Caspian Gas and Russian Gas. Turkey is a brilliant strategic location for benefitting from disruption in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea." However, Ricklefs cautions that Iraq’s "instability", exacerbated by the war against Iran, remains an obstacle to the realisation of.the Development Road project. While cost remains a factor, shipping via the Strait of Hormuz is the cheapest distribution option. The aftermath of the Iran war is also being predicted to boost Ankara’s efforts to increase its influence across the energy-rich Gulf states. In 2014, Turkey opened a military base in Qatar which has been expanded from land forces to air and naval capabilities, with a reported presence of 5,000 personnel. Turkey has also, in recent years, rapidly expanded and modernised its navy. “However the Iran war ends, it will take a while for Iran to ameliorate relations,” predicts Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel. “So in that sense, the relations between the Gulf states – or certainly Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey – I'm sure will continue to be strong, because Turkey will be a countervailing power to Iran, especially if the Iran regime survives this. The regime will have been fortified.” French ship makes first Western European transit of Hormuz since Iran conflict The Israeli fissure Turkey is already stepping up its diplomatic efforts with Saudi Arabia and Egypt in seeking to end the fighting. This deepening cooperation is enhanced by shared concerns over Israel, exacerbated by the Iran war. “Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan want stability in the region,” says Asli Aydintasbas, head of the Turkey Project at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. “They are not fully on board with the Israeli plan of keeping Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iran destabilised." “As such, they have not been able to deal with Israel's policies, but together they can. They are providing an alternative axis. And I think that will be very important for [the] US administration that similarly seeks stability, so they can do less in the Middle East and more in Asia.” France denies blocking US flights as Israel cuts defence ties However, Aydintasbas acknowledges that such cooperation threatens to deepen another fissure in the Middle East. In February, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that Israel is facing an emerging threat of “a radical Sunni axis”. “I think when Netanyahu said that, he was trying to create a bogeyman and, really, he was talking about Turkey. The strategic competitor to Israel in the region is now Turkey,” said Ricklefs. The Iran war is exacerbating existing tensions between Israel and Turkey, with both sides ramping up their rhetoric against each other. Any enhancement of Turkish influence in the region in...

As Azerbaijan is hit by drone attacks and its security forces claim to have arrested Iranian agents planning attacks against Israeli interests, fears of contagion in the Iranian war are rising. For Turkey, which has a defence alliance with Azerbaijan, its relationship with Baku is complicated by the latter's close ties with Israel. On 5 March, drones attacked the airport of Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Iran. Baku blamed Iran, a charge Tehran denies. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev condemned the attack as “terrorism” and warned Tehran of a severe response if the attacks continued. The drone strikes are viewed by Baku as a warning over its close ties with Israel. “There are some verbal attacks from [social media] accounts associated with the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guards that Azerbaijan should expel Israeli agents and things like that. We responded that we are not part of this conflict,” explained Farid Shafijev, chairman of the Baku-based government-affiliated think tank, the Center for Analysis of International Relations. “We are watching closely, and the Azerbaijani military is on high alert in case of any new provocations." Following the drone attack, Azerbaijani security forces claimed to have arrested Iranian agents planning attacks against Israeli interests, including the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan crude oil pipeline – which is believed to provide around 30 percent of Israel’s oil needs, shipped from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Could the war in Iran lay a path for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Azeri minority in Iran "Azerbaijan has been a strategic partner for many years,” explained Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies, an independent think tank in Tel Aviv. She claims the Iranian war is strengthening the relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel, which she explains in part thrives on "the location of Azerbaijan as a neighbouring state to Iran, which also fears Iran in an existential way, similar to Israel". Despite Baku’s claims of neutrality, Iranian suspicion of Azerbaijan over its ties with Israel are also fuelled by Iran’s large Azeri minority. In recent weeks, Iranian security forces have arrested dozens of ethnic Azerbaijanis accused of working for “foreign powers". Turkey warns against drawing Iran's Kurds into Middle East war “The Azeri minority in Iran is a huge number – 20 to 25 million people – densely populating the territory of two huge provinces of Iran,” explains Azerbaijan expert Zaur Gasimov of the German Academic Exchange Service, a joint organisation of German universities that fosters international relations. Their Azeri identity remains strong, with the language widely spoken despite being banned in secondary schools. However, Gasimov says ethnic Azerbaijanis are well integrated into Iranian society – but Tehran remains suspicious of this minority, given its past. “If we look back to the history of the Second World War, there was an Azerbaijani republic from 1941 to 1946 with its capital in Tebriz. That, of course, forged certain sensitivity on the Iranian side." Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has voiced growing support for Iran’s Azeri minority. "Independent Azerbaijan is a place of hope for Azerbaijanis living in Iran,” he declared after March’s drone attacks. “Azerbaijan does not want the breakup of Iran and chaos inside Iran,” stressed Shafiyev. But he says Baku’s priority is the treatment of Azeris in Iran. “There might be different scenarios. The escalation of the war, the internal disturbances, civil war, things can go in different directions, and among the public in Azerbaijan, this is a very sensitive issue, the security and wellbeing of the Azerbaijan population in Iran." Turkey fears it will pick up the bill for Washington's war in Iran Delicate diplomacy While Azerbaijan’s involvement in the Iran conflict would likely be welcomed by its ally Israel, it would cause alarm...

With war on the continent and uncertainty surrounding transatlantic guarantees, Europe is being forced to confront vulnerabilities in its defence. The combination is forcing governments to tackle long-standing inefficiencies – and to ask whether current plans go far enough. As the war grinds on in Ukraine and alliances shift under pressure, policymakers across Europe are confronting a stark reality: security can no longer be taken for granted. For decades following the Cold War, Europe operated within a relatively stable framework. Defence spending was reduced, industrial capacity thinned, and reliance on the United States became an accepted cornerstone of European defence. That model is now under strain. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought high-intensity conflict back to the continent, while political uncertainty in Washington has raised questions about the durability of US commitments. In response, the European Union is rethinking its approach. It has taken practical steps in the form of initiatives such as the Security Action for Europe (SAFE), which offers up to €150 billion of loans to member states looking to invest in advanced weapons and other hardware. More broadly, the bloc aims to ramp up defence capabilities and production within the decade as part of a plan first dubbed Rearm Europe and now known as Readiness 2030. The EU is trying to correct decades of uneven investment while adapting to a rapidly changing security landscape. The challenge is not simply to spend more, but to spend better. EU chief unveils €800bn plan to 'rearm' Europe and support Ukraine Change of mindset Europe has faced repeated security crises in recent years, from Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but responses have varied across countries and taken time to coordinate. Speaking to RFI, Brussels-based security consultant Serge Stroobants says SAFE should be seen not as a standalone fix, but part of a broader shift in thinking. "It’s trying to solve the lack of a security mindset within the EU, the lack of security readiness … and also the lack of strategy and strategic autonomy," he says. The shifting role of NATO is central to Europe’s recalibration. For years, the alliance relied heavily on US military capabilities, with European allies contributing more modestly. Under pressure from US President Donald Trump, all 32 of NATO's members met the target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defence last year, according to an annual report published this week. They have agreed to up investment to 5 percent of GDP by 2035. France to increase nuclear warheads as part of shared plan to protect Europe Yet defence budgets still vary significantly across Europe. Poland now spends more than 4 percent of GDP on defence, while Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – like Poland, on Russia's doorstep – spend over 3 percent. Meanwhile France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and others spend little more than 2 percent. However, increased spending alone will not fix long-standing structural problems. Much of the recent surge in European defence budgets has been reactive, driven by the war in Ukraine. National industries remain fragmented, procurement systems differ across countries, and EU decision-making is often slow. The result is not just delay, but inefficiency. Piecemeal procurement drives up costs, duplication of weapons systems complicates logistics, and industrial rivalries undercut collective strength. Without deeper coordination, new funding risks reinforcing those problems. SAFE is designed to address some of these issues. To qualify for the programme's loans, member states must buy weapons together with other members of the EU or the European Economic Area, or Ukraine. By funding joint purchases, the ambition is to avoid duplication and boost interoperability of defence systems across Europe. Hybrid threats The continent must also adapt to quickly evolving threats. "What experts are...

The Iran war is adding impetus to reconciliation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as the region seeks to position itself as a new trade corridor between Europe and energy-rich central Asia, with the conflict highlighting Europe's energy dependency on the volatile Middle East. Addressing the European Parliament earlier this month, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared that, with the Iranian conflict on its border, efforts would be stepped up to realise a trade route with Azerbaijan. The United States-brokered TRIPP project, negotiated by United States President Donald Trump last August, is seen as key to reconciling the two countries, after decades of conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. With both Armenia and Azerbaijan bordering Iran, the conflict is providing a powerful impetus for cooperation. “This war in Iran has fostered much more of a localised regional identity where, despite the wars and the conflicts of the last several decades, Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan are actually banding together,” said Richard Giragosiyan, director of the Regional Studies Center, a think tank based in the Armenian capital, Yerevan. “Now is the one opportunity for consolidating regional connectivity in terms of trade and transport." Life after ruin: Aghdam's fragile rebirth after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict 'The Trump Road' Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev signed the TRIPP agreement as part of a peace deal, committing to unimpeded connectivity between mainland Azerbaijan and the exclave of Nakhchivan, via Armenian territory. The new trade route is expected to become part of what is dubbed the “Middle Corridor”, linking energy-rich Central Asian countries to Europe via Turkey. Tehran strongly opposes the initiative, as the corridor offers an alternative to transiting through Iran to Central Asia. However, the Iran war has further curtailed Tehran's diminishing influence in the Caucasus. “We also shouldn't forget the benefits of the Iran war,” said Turkey analyst Atilla Yesilada of the New York-based Global Source Partners consultancy. “They [Ankara] want a weak Iran so that they can expand their footprint in the South Caucasus against Iran.” Yesilada says the fallout from the Iran war underscores the importance of the TRIPP agreement – or, as it's sometimes dubbed in Turkey, the “Trump Road" – which is key to Ankara's economic goals. “We get the Trump Road because nobody would want to traverse Iran under these conditions,” explains Yesilada, “And you get [a] not immediate but gradual, but permanent, development boost from trade and investment along that route.” US takes lead in Caucasus peace deal as France is pushed aside A new route for Europe The Middle Corridor is seen as an opportunity for Europe to diversify in terms of energy supply from the volatile Middle East. “The most obvious security lesson [from the Iran war] is diversity,” said Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at New York's Columbia University. "The real jewel is Turkmenistan's gas, the third largest [supply] in terms of the world’s resources. I believe that there will be a lot of discussions about the middle corridor both in the region and in Europe.” However, Mitrova remains cautious about the project's viability, saying: "Economically it's not attractive – too many risks and too low margins.” The Caucasus is sandwiched between Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Iran conflict, raising questions over how secure any new energy route to Europe would be. These come alongside reservations over the viability of the billions of euros of investment needed, at a time when Europe is seeking to transition away from fossil fuels. “The problem with the Brussels policy is they don't want to invest in hydrocarbons, they don't invest in gas,” said Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations. Frenchman convicted for spying in Azerbaijan,...

With French warships deployed from the Mediterranean to the Strait of Hormuz, former French general Dominique Trinquand speaks to RFI about what's at stake for France, Europe and the risk of conflict escalation in the Middle East. France has deployed a large part of its naval forces to the Middle East as the war triggered by Israeli-US strikes on Iran enters its third week, with Paris seeking to protect European interests, reassure allies and prevent the conflict from spreading further across the region. President Emmanuel Macron has described the mobilisation as "unprecedented", with French assets now operating across the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most vital maritime chokepoints for global energy supplies. The deployment comes as US President Donald Trump calls on allies to help secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, warning NATO members of a “very bad” future future if they fail to assist Washington in safeguarding the passage. Speaking to RFI, former French general Dominique Trinquand said the scale of the French deployment illustrated just how seriously Paris views the crisis. "Forty percent of the naval capability of France is currently on operations," he said. "Of the 23 main ships, 19 are on operations, so it is really a major involvement of France in this operation." France holds back warships as Trump urges allies to secure Strait of Hormuz Show of force Much of the French military focus is currently centred on the Mediterranean following attacks linked to the wider conflict. "The focus is on the Mediterranean because Cyprus was attacked," Trinquand explained. "Cyprus is not a NATO member but an EU member, so France, with Italy, Greece and Spain, is showing that we are defending the south of Europe." France is also reinforcing its defence commitments to Gulf allies such as Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, where it maintains a major military base in Abu Dhabi. Paris has doubled the number of fighter jets stationed there by sending six Rafale aircraft to bolster the emirate's air defences. At the same time, French forces are strengthening maritime security further south near Djibouti, where another French base supports operations in the Red Sea. France has also deployed its flagship aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, to the Mediterranean after it was recalled from a NATO exercise in the North Sea. For Trinquand, the carrier’s presence is intended primarily as a signal of deterrence rather than a step toward direct military intervention. “Clearly it’s a strategic deterrence,” he said. “This aircraft carrier was in the North Sea participating in a NATO exercise, but as soon as Cyprus was attacked it was decided to send the aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean.” The move, he added, demonstrates Europe’s ability to defend its southern flank. “With the aircraft carrier you also have frigates and submarines, so it’s a major deployment. It shows that Europe is able to defend its south border.” 'If the Strait of Hormuz were to remain closed, we would face a major crisis' Diplomacy versus escalation Alongside the military build-up, Macron has also sought to keep diplomatic channels open. The French president spoke last week with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, urging Tehran to halt attacks in the region and restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Trinquand, however, remained sceptical about the prospects for diplomatic progress in the current climate. "You always need to try diplomacy," he said. "But I am not sure that in this case it will be a success, because the Iranian government is weak outside even if it is strong inside Iran, and so it tries to establish chaos." "The Strait of Hormuz is of strategic importance to them, and I do not think that they will negotiate on that." The conflict has already had direct consequences for French forces in the region. A French warrant officer was killed and...

The Turkish government is warning the United States and Israel against involving Iran’s Kurdish minority in the war against the Iranian regime. Home to millions of Kurds, Turkey fears any such move could destabilise its ongoing peace process with Kurdish militants calling for an autonomous state. Concentrated in north-western Iran along the borders with Turkey and Iraq, Kurds are estimated to make up 8 to 17 percent of Iran’s population. As the war in the Middle East continues, several international news agencies reported talks between US officials and armed Iranian Kurdish groups. Seeking to assuage Turkish concerns, President Donald Trump last weekend ruled out such a move. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan welcomed Washington's assurances, but warned the threat remained. "Israel’s intentions on this matter are no secret," he told reporters. "Israel has for years used Kurdish groups in the region as a proxy." Home to a large Kurdish minority, Turkey has fought a bitter war for decades against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is designated by Washington and the European Union as a terrorist organisation. Last year the PKK ended its armed struggle and committed to disbanding in a peace agreement with Turkey, but its affiliates in Syria and Iran are not part of this process – a distinction that keeps Ankara wary. "The Syrian branch of the PKK gave Turkey a hard time. Just as an autonomous zone within Syria was unacceptable, a PKK affiliate running the Iranian Kurdistan would be unacceptable – that's basically the state's position," explains Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel. "They don't want a Kurdish independent state or an autonomous state anywhere in the region, because they think that it would contaminate [other Kurdish populations]." Turkey looks for regional help in its battle against Kurdish rebels in Iraq 'Dangerous gambit' For a decade, Turkey’s military fought the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara accuses of ties to the PKK. Earlier this year, the new Damascus regime, backed by Ankara, retook most of the SDF's territory. "Israel has a very long history with the PKK. They definitely have relations with SDF," claims Serhan Afacan, head of the Centre for Iranian Studies, a think tank based in Turkey. "So Israel can always go and try to support these Kurdish groups in Iran." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an address to Iran last Sunday, called on Iranians to rise up against the regime. "It is becoming clear that regime change is not an attainable goal just through bombing," says Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and Turkey specialist at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "So I think Israelis are exploring other options, including ethnic competition domestically, working with ethnic groups, including Kurds." However, Aydintasbas warns that any attempt by Iranian Kurds to carve out an autonomous region would not only be met by strong resistance from Ankara, but also from Tehran. "The Iranian regime, though it's been unable to resist US operations and military strikes, still retains a significant amount of military power, at least enough to suppress its own people," she says. "This is a very dangerous gambit for all involved, including the Kurds." 'War with no winners': Middle East crisis enters a dangerous new phase Tensions with Israel Israel’s support for Kurdish groups tied to the PKK has exacerbated Israeli-Turkish tensions, already running high amid Israel’s war in Gaza and competition for regional influence. Analyst Ozel believes any Israeli support for Iranian Kurdish groups would fit with its long-term strategy for Iran and the wider region. "The Israelis would rather have a chaotic Iran than an Iran that has actually managed better, because no matter who runs Iran, I don’t think they can play Israel’s music," he argues. "But the real threat, as far as Israel is concerned, is to have a rival that has the weight to...

Even as Washington hints at a quick end to the war with Iran, analysts say Tehran is preparing for a longer strategic struggle. The Middle East is in the grip of a widening conflict following joint US and Israeli strikes across Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks. While US president Donald Trump has suggested the war could end soon, many analysts and regional actors see the trajectory very differently. For them, the escalation risks pulling the region into a deeper and more dangerous phase. The European Council on Foreign Relations has warned that the confrontation could become a war with no winners, raising humanitarian risks inside Iran and threatening to destabilise an already fragile region. According to the foreign policy think tank, the latest conflict also risks drawing in global powers such as Russia and China while spreading across multiple theatres, from the Mediterranean to the Gulf. Julien Barnes-Dacey, Middle East and North Africa programme director at the ECFR, says the conflict has already passed the point of easy containment. “We’re already at that moment,” he told RFI. “The conflict has quickly expanded and Iran - from the outset - has been intent on demonstrating that this could not be a containable war.” Conflict spreads across the Middle East as Iran names new supreme leader Regional escalation gathers pace Tehran’s response has been shaped by a clear strategic calculation – to raise the cost of confrontation and widen the battlefield. According to Barnes-Dacey, the Iranian leadership has deliberately sought to show that any attempt to weaken or topple the regime would trigger a regional backlash. “Iran has been intent on demonstrating that the price of attacking Iran – the price of trying to bring down the regime – would be a conflict that would engulf the entire region,” he said. That approach has already begun to play out across the region. Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and Iraq have mobilised, while tensions have intensified between Israel and Hezbollah. In Lebanon, Barnes-Dacey says the situation is particularly volatile, with Israel sharply increasing its attacks and speculation growing about a possible ground incursion. Meanwhile, Washington is reportedly exploring additional pressure points against Tehran, including outreach to Kurdish actors who have had an uneasy and often transactional relationship with the US in the past. The result is a conflict that is becoming structurally wider, involving proxy forces and regional actors whose involvement could deepen the crisis. One week into Iran war, the dangers for the US and Trump multiply Strategic vacuum Despite the expanding military campaign, analysts say the political endgame remains unclear. Barnes-Dacey describes the current US strategy as deeply inconsistent. “It’s clearly a mess,” he said. “Both in terms of tactics and strategy we seem to be facing a real kind of vacuum at the heart of the US operation.” According to him, Washington’s stated goals have shifted repeatedly, ranging from limiting Iran’s missile capabilities to pursuing regime change. At times the administration has spoken about a prolonged war, only for Trump to suggest shortly afterwards that the conflict could soon be over. This uncertainty may also reflect strategic differences between Washington and Israel. While the US president may be reluctant to become trapped in a long conflict, Barnes-Dacey says Israel appears more determined to fundamentally weaken – or even break – the Iranian regime. That divergence matters because Iran is not a small or easily subdued country. With a population of more than 90 million and extensive regional connections, any attempt to push the Iranian state towards collapse could have far-reaching consequences. “A state collapse goal would be devastating,” Barnes-Dacey warned, pointing to the potential for regional instability, migration pressures and broader security fallout. Deterrence through resistance For Tehran,...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is intensifying diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war after an Iranian missile was shot down approaching Turkey. The country worries it could be among those most affected by the conflict, as rising oil prices threaten the nation’s fragile economy and a potential Iranian refugee wave looms. NATO forces on Wednesday tracked the Iranian ballistic missile through Iraq and Syria and intercepted it as it headed towards Turkey’s Hatay province – home to the Incirlik air base, where a large US Air Force presence is stationed, along with nuclear weapons. Alliance member Turkey also hosts a NATO radar base close to the Iranian border, operated by American forces. Despite the presence of US soldiers, up until this incident Turkey had not been targeted by Iran, with Ankara maintaining close ties with Tehran. The Turkish government summoned the Iranian ambassador to make a formal complaint immediately after the missile was shot down. But Tehran denies firing the missile. Iran’s armed forces have decentralised command and control under the so-called Mosaic defence doctrine following the killing of many of its senior military commanders. Serhat Afacan, head of the Centre for Iranian Studies, a research organisation in Ankara, suggests the attack could be the action of a local commander. "Some radicals within the Revolutionary Guards have said Turkey should be targeted like Iran’s Gulf neighbours," Afacan said. "The risk is always present, which is why Turkey keeps open communication with Iran." President Erdogan is redoubling diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, while refusing US forces access to Turkish airspace for attacks on Iran. But Erdogan’s priority, according to political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners, is protecting his relationship with US President Donald Trump. "Erdogan has done what can be expected: he criticised Israel, but also condemned Iran for attacking Arab countries. He avoids mentioning Trump directly and has managed to preserve the relationship," Yesilada said. How the war in Iran is testing Europe’s US military base network Fears of Iranian exodus With the war escalating, Ankara’s primary concern is an overwhelming exodus of Iranian refugees. Turkey already hosts over 3 million Syrians and hundreds of thousands from Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey’s 540 km border with Iran is protected by a concrete wall and razor wire, and the mountainous region is snowbound; few Iranians have so far sought refuge. However, Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel says Ankara is fearful that the current trickle of people fleeing could turn into a flood, posing a significant threat to Turkey’s stability. "If Iran’s regime falls and turmoil follows, millions could flee. Syria’s civil war began with 23 million people; Iran’s population is 93 million," he warned. Last month, Turkish parliamentarians received a secret briefing on contingency plans for any Iranian exodus. "They're working on solutions. One of those was that they were going to create a safe zone inside Iran," said Ozel. The Turkish presidency denied reports by Bloomberg news agency that it was considering plans for a so-called safe zone in Iran, controlled by Turkey's military. But Turkish officials have declared they would not allow an uncontrolled influx of Iranian refugees. Why Iran's 'beheaded' power structure may outlive Ali Khamenei Economic fears The Turkish economy is already reeling from government austerity measures aimed at taming inflation above 30 percent. Those efforts could receive a fatal blow with the Iran war already sending oil prices soaring. "Rising oil prices pose a huge threat. Turkish inflation isn’t under control, and oil drives it up. Every 10 percent rise in oil adds about 1 percent to inflation," Yesilada noted. The analyst warned that sustained high oil prices could present political challenges: "Modest increases in wages and prices at the beginning of the...

Three decades after war reduced the city of Aghdam to ruins, deminers and returning residents are laying the groundwork for its revival. The destruction of the city of Aghdam in the contested enclave of Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh is among the most visible signs of the decades-long conflict between Azerbaijanis and ethnic Armenians. Now efforts are underway to bring the city back to life. A loud explosion breaks the winter silence as the latest disposal of collected mines takes place. ‘We’ve cleared three hundred thousand square meters and found more than ten thousand landmines,” proudly declares Elnur Gasimov, head of mine clearance operations in Aghdam. The dangerous work, done in freezing weather, carries significant risk. Gasimov's right hand is missing several fingers. “We have more than 10 deminers who have lost their legs, and we lost two deminers during the explosive disposal,” Gasimov told RFI. He explains that, with Aghdam once close to the frontline in fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, the area was among the heaviest mined during the conflict. Azerbaijan lifts Armenia border restrictions, but hurdles to peace remain Clearing the mines Nagorno-Karabakh was historically home to a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. In 1993, they broke away from Azerbaijan, declaring a breakaway Republic of Artsakh. But in 2023, during a lightning war, Azerbaijani forces recaptured the region. With access to Aghdam still tightly controlled since the end of the fighting, RFI joined a small group of journalists on a trip organised by the Azerbaijani authorities. The city of Aghdam was once home to 40,000 people, predominantly Azerbaijani. Long a cultural centre of the region, the city was also home to Azerbaijan’s most famous football club – Qarabag – which now plays out of the capital, Baku. Today, not a single house remains standing – all were razed to the ground, and even the trees didn't escape the conflict. It’s a barren wasteland. The historical Juma mosque was one of the few buildings that survived, partially intact, and was used as a shelter for farm animals by ethnic Armenians. Imam Mehman Nesirov, 45, is the proud custodian of the fully restored mosque, where up to 100 worshippers now attend Friday prayers as life slowly returns to the city. Nesirov fled Aghdam in 1993 as a child: “We were forced to leave because of the sound of fighting, which was getting closer and closer. Everyone was terrified and panicked." Nesirov explained to RFI that he and his family spent the first years of their lives living in a railway wagon. “I will never forget those years. We always prayed to God that one day we could return and pray at this mosque,” said Nesirov. “We can't put into words how we feel that dream we had as a child, a teenager, and an adult is finally realised.” Azerbaijan must allow 'safe' return to Nagorno-Karabakh: UN court Returns and ruptures Around a thousand people have returned to Aghdam, all housed in new state-built accommodation, as the city itself remains uninhabitable. While Azerbaijanis are slowly returning, ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have now become refugees following the victory of Azeri forces in 2023. “What we saw within 24 hours was the forced expulsion of the remaining 110,000 Armenians from their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh,” said Richard Giragosiyan, director of the Regional Studies Center, a Yerevan think tank. “They were leaving behind whole homes, personal possessions, family graves, and coming to Armenia, which was more of a foreign country than many people understand,” added Giragosiyan. However, Giragosiyan claims that Azerbaijan’s forces' success in Nagorno-Karabakh opened the door to a “diplomatic breakthrough,” with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan committing themselves to improving relations in the aftermath of the conflict. Baku in January opened its border to allow oil and grain from Kazakhstan to...

For 15 years, the New Start treaty bound the United States and Russia to curb their nuclear arsenals – until it expired earlier this month. Researcher Benoit Pelopidas tells RFI what hope remains for disarmament now that there are no longer fixed limits on the world's two largest nuclear powers. In what could mark a major turning point in the history of arms control, New Start expired on 5 February. Neither US President Donald Trump nor his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has shown interest in renewing it. The treaty was signed between the United States and Russia on 8 April 2010 and came into force on 5 February 2011. Initially planned to last 10 years, it was extended for another five in 2021. Its goal was to limit each side to 800 missile launchers and 1,550 nuclear warheads, with the two countries authorised to inspect each other's stockpiles. It was never a global treaty. Other countries signed up to the broader Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which came into force in 1970 and now has 191 parties, including the US and Russia. But Washington and Moscow also had bilateral arms control agreements in place continuously since 1972 – until now, notes Benoît Pelopidas, an expert on nuclear threats at Sciences Po university in Paris. "But it would be false to deduce from that that the arms race has not started yet and might start now," he tells RFI. "There are reasons to think that the arms race started as early as the spring of 2010." Europe confronts ‘new nuclear reality’ as Macron signals broader deterrence role 'Possible acceleration' Even before New Start expired, implementation of the treaty deteriorated over time, culminating in Russia suspending its participation in 2023. "And now we're at a full level where it's no longer implemented at all," says Pelopidas. "It's new diplomatically, and it enables the possible acceleration of an ongoing arms race." NATO called for "restraint and responsibility" after the treaty expired. "Russia's irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive signals on nuclear matters reveal a posture of strategic intimidation," an official told French news agency AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. "NATO will continue to take the measures necessary to ensure its credibility and the effectiveness of its overall deterrence and defence position." The Kremlin had proposed continuing to comply with New Start's limits until February 2027, but the White House did not respond. Moscow considers the treaty's expiration "a negative development", Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "We express our regret in this regard." China shuns calls to enter nuclear talks after US-Russia treaty lapses Disarmament still possible According to Pelopidas, disarmament is possible and has been partially achieved before, especially in the early 1990s after the end of the Cold War. "In 1991, we had 58,000 nuclear weapons on the planet. And we're now at a level of roughly 12,000 in 2025, which is a massive decrease," he says. "We have, between 1986 and today, dismantled or retired over 80 percent of the existing arsenal in the world. So it is not materially impossible to dismantle or disarm." The world's remaining nuclear stockpile still has the potential to wreak huge destruction, he stresses, a fact that he believes should drive all nuclear powers to work towards de-escalation. "If the theory of nuclear winter is correct, a so-called limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan that led to the explosion of 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs – that is, roughly 1 percent of the existing arsenal – would lead to the death of 2 billion people by starvation due to its indirect consequences over two years," Pelopidas says. "That's how destructive the capacity of the existing arsenal is." Episode mixed by Erwan Rome.

Staunchly allied with Turkey, Somalia has become a flashpoint in Turkey's rivalry with Israel. Ankara recently deployed fighter jets to Mogadishu in the latest signal that it is determined to protect its strategic interests in the Horn of Africa after Israel recognised the breakaway region of Somaliland. In a conspicuous display of military strength, Turkish F-16 fighter jets roared over the Somali capital, Mogadishu, in late January. According to Turkish officials, the deployment was aimed at protecting Turkish interests and supporting Somali efforts to counter an insurgency by the radical Islamist group al-Shabaab. It follows Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December, which Ankara condemned as a threat to Somalia's territorial integrity. Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel said the jets send a message to Israel: "Don't mess with our interests here." Somalia is poised to become the latest point of tension between the countries, he predicts. "I don't think they will fight, but they are both showing their colours. Israel's recognition of Somaliland and the Turks sending F-16s and drones are attempts to set limits to what the other party can do," he said. "Could it get out of hand? I don’t know. It may." The risky calculations behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland Mutual suspicion The episode reflects broader strains in Israeli-Turkish relations, which remain fraught over Ankara’s support of Hamas and Israel’s war in Gaza. "It's a new chapter in the competition between the two countries, which are now the dominant military powers in the Middle East," said Norman Ricklefs, CEO of geopolitical consultancy Namea Group. According to Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Israel is not seeking to challenge the interests of Turkey or Somalia. Instead, she argues Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and its commitment to deepening cooperation are motivated by the breakaway’s state strategic location facing Yemen, where Houthi rebels launched attacks against Israeli cities last year. "The Houthis were the last ones who were still launching missiles against Israel, from the Iranian proxies. This is the most major threat for Israel," she said. However, Lindenstrauss acknowledges that both sides increasingly view each other's actions with suspicion. "What Israel sees as defence, Turkey sees as something against Ankara." Rival blocs Turkey's suspicions could grow if Israel deploys military hardware in Somaliland to counter threats from Yemen, a move an anonymous Israeli expert suggested is Israel’s aim. Ricklefs warns Israel needs to tread carefully, given the significant investments Turkey had made in Somalia over the past 15 years. Turkey has its largest overseas military base and embassy in Somalia, while Ankara has signed agreements with Mogadishu to explore potential energy reserves, as well as a naval accord. "Turkey is running the [Mogadishu] port, counterterrorism training, charities, NGOs, and all that kind of stuff. So it appears very important to Turkey's regional strategic ambitions," said Ricklefs. He noted that Somalia’s location on the Horn of Africa, with coastlines in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, makes it "key for regional influence". With Somalia naval deal, Turkey steers into strategic but volatile region Lindenstrauss observed that the Turkish-Israeli rivalry over Somalia is further complicated by the emergence of two competing axes: "On the one hand, you see Greece, Cyprus, Israel, the UAE. On the other hand, you see Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar," she explained. "They are loose axes, but you do see that on many issues, these two axes think differently. And that's also a cause of the rising tensions." Ricklefs noted that tensions have already spilled over into confrontation elsewhere. “We've already seen the pretty strong competition leading to violence in Libya, between...

A meeting between the leaders of Greece and Turkey next week seeks to rejuvenate a stalled rapprochement process between the neighbouring countries, amid growing tensions and fears of an unpredictable intervention by US President Donald Trump. Wednesday’s meeting in Ankara between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the latest in a series aimed at improving relations. It stems from the 2023 Athens Declaration, a formal statement of friendship that led to better economic cooperation and a cooling of military tensions over the disputed Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean Seas. Mitsotakis’s visit comes at a critical time for the process. “I think it's very important, the meeting has been postponed twice in the past,” says former Greek foreign ministry advisor Panayotis Ioakimidis, who now teaches at the University of Athens. “There are some people within the [Greek] governing party, and outside it, who have serious reservations about improving or even talking about relations with Turkey,” he notes. “So it's very important for the meeting to happen, to keep cooperation going; otherwise, relations risk sliding into conflict.” Claims on the Aegean The talks come as tensions over the Aegean Sea – believed to have vast untapped energy reserves – are on the rise. In January, the Greek foreign minister, George Gerapetritis, announced Greece’s intent to exercise its right under international law to extend its territorial waters in the Aegean from six to 12 nautical miles, to create a marine park. Erdogan is expected to remind his Greek counterpart that any extension of territorial waters is a red line for Turkey. “Mitsotakis will get some lectures in Ankara,” predicts international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. In 1995, the Turkish parliament passed a motion declaring that Greece unilaterally extending its waters beyond six miles was a casus belli – cause for war. “Twelve miles [of] territorial waters for Greece means the Turkish ships cannot go one kilometre outside of Turkish territory. Turkey cannot accept this,” says Bagci. In response, Athens is using Greece’s European Union veto to prevent Turkey from joining the EU’s SAFE defence procurement programme until Turkey withdraws its threat of war. Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Alliance with Israel Adding to tensions, last December Greece and Cyprus signed a series of defence agreements with one of Turkey’s fiercest rivals – Israel. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Israel of seeking to encircle Turkey, while Turkish media dubbed it an “axis of evil”. Mitsotakis is expected to try to allay such concerns during his visit to Ankara. “The Greek side thinks it can separate these issues and keep them quite separate from the bilateral issues between Greece and Turkey,” says Ioakimidis. “But it’s a very likely scenario to take the countries into very dangerous waters.” Israel’s military support of Greece is to blame for Athens’ more assertive stance in the Aegean, argues Murat Aslan of the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank. He says that Greece acts more boldly when backed by others: “Once they enjoy the support of another, material or narrative, they are much more courageous to challenge.” If Greece maintains this approach, Aslan suggests, Turkey will likely go back to increasing its military activity. Prior to recent attempts at rapprochement, Turkish and Greek warplanes often challenged each another in mock dogfights in the disputed airspace over the Aegean. Turkey flexes naval muscles as neighbours fear escalating arms race Trump effect However, Trump could provide an impetus to contain tensions. With the American ambassador to Greece announcing this week that the US president will visit Athens, both Erdogan and Mitsotakis will be wary of Trump's involvement...

After more than a decade of war, a surge of violence in northern Syria is forcing thousands of people to flee – even as others return to a fractured country under a fragile interim government. With two-thirds of the population in need of urgent assistance and the UN humanitarian response underfunded, the Danish Refugee Council's Charlotte Slente tells RFI why aid groups fear catastrophic consequences as cold weather and economic collapse push millions to the brink. Clashes in and around Aleppo have displaced around 170,000 people since mid-January, as the Syrian army seeks to extend its control over previously Kurdish-controlled areas. Ongoing hostilities between government forces and armed groups continue to trigger displacement in several parts of the country, according to the UN. While political transition is underway after the fall of Bashar al-Assad at the end of 2024, reconstruction and recovery efforts are hindered by instability and lack of funding. Access to healthcare remains unreliable, and basic services are severely disrupted. A harsh winter and long-term drought are exacerbating the crisis. More than 16 million Syrians are expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2026 – yet the UN's response plan is only 33.5 percent funded, leaving a $3.2 billion gap. "It is an incredibly fragile moment for Syria," said Slente, secretary-general of the Danish Refugee Council (DRC), speaking to RFI on a visit to the Aleppo region. "This is a country where two out of every three Syrians need humanitarian assistance, and 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line." A year after Assad's fall, Syrian hopes for transitional justice are fading Returning to ruins, landmines Around 3 million Syrian refugees and internally displaced people have returned home since the fall of the Assad regime, over 1 million from other countries and nearly 2 million from within Syria. "Syria has had a new government in place for the last year," Slente said, "and it's time to sort of recap on our programming here and adapt our programming to the new realities on the ground. A vast percentage of the population here are in dire need of humanitarian assistance on the ground." Many people are returning to their homes to find almost nothing after more than 13 years of civil war, she added. One of the DRC's priorities now is to work on getting rid of the landmines that still litter areas where fighting took place, and pose a deadly threat to returnees. The organisation recently finished training local teams to help clear mines, Slente said. "We are helping build the capacity here of the National Mine Action Centre in the Ministry of Emergencies that needs to coordinate that very big endeavour of clearing Syria of unexploded ordinance and landmines. It means that now we can get more jobs done on the ground with the clearing of mines, getting them out of fields and villages, so that people can actually be safe when they move around the territory." As Syrian workers return home from Turkey, local businesses feel the loss Upheaval in Kurdish north In north-eastern Syria, near the border with Turkey, civilians say they are still fearful. After months of tension, Kurdish-led forces have ceded swathes of territory to advancing government troops. Under a deal agreed last week, Kurdish forces and administrative institutions are to be integrated into the state. It is a blow to the Kurds, who had sought to preserve the de facto autonomy they exercised after seizing swathes of territory in battles against the Islamic State jihadist group during the civil war. "We are afraid that they will attack our regions and that massacres and genocide will occur," one woman told RFI's reporter in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli, where government forces entered on Tuesday. Another resident said he was hoping for "a positive resolution to the conflict, so that no more bloodshed occurs". This episode was mixed by Nicolas Doreau.

While polls say the majority of Turkish people welcome the departure of Syrians displaced by the civil war, Turkey's business owners are feeling the pinch with the loss of their workforce. With the end of the Syrian civil war, Turkey claims that nearly a million refugees who were living there have already returned home. Their departure is being welcomed by the Turkish government, amid growing public animosity over the presence of more than 3 million refugees. But for many Turkish companies, Syrians are an economic lifeline – as seen in Gaziantep, an industrial city close to the Syrian border. The Inci Boya company is one of hundreds of small factories and workshops in the city. With a couple of dozen workers, hundreds of pieces of furniture are spray-painted each day. With long hours in air thick with dust, it’s arduous, dirty work. As in many factories in Gaziantep, Syrians make up a large share of the workforce. “I can't get people from my own community to work in my sector,” explains owner Halil Yarabay. "Many workshop owners and many businesses are unfortunately experiencing this.” He blames societal changes, “Our children, our youth... they consider such work beneath them. They consider they’ve failed in their family's eyes by working with their hands as a furniture maker or a mechanic.” French journalist arrested in Turkey while covering pro-Kurdish protest released Realities of returning But local authorities claim nearly 100,000 Syrians have already left the city – including including several who worked at Inci Boya. During a welcome tea break, the topic of going home is on everyone’s tongue. Ahmed Hac Hussein has been working there for more than five years. He, too, is thinking of leaving. “Many people are returning, I have a relative who moves a family back to Syria every day,” he said. “For me, I lived in Aleppo for 35 years. I have so many friends there, I haven't seen them for 14 years. I have three sisters there, and I haven’t seen them either. I want to go.” However, Hussein, who lost his home in the war, acknowledges that the economic realities in Syria make returning difficult. “You need to have money to pay the monthly rent. You need a job, but there is no work. My brother went back to Aleppo, but he says business is too slow.” Listening is Hussein's son, Ibrahim, who started working here a year ago after leaving school. He feels differently: “I grew up here; this place became my second home. I love it here a lot. I was two years old when I came here, and I never went back. I don’t want to go back.” Demographic time bomb Turkish companies such as Inci Boya will be hoping many Syrians feel the same as Ibrahim, claims Atilla Yesilada, Turkey’s economic analyst for consultancy Global Source Partners. He says around 900,000 Syrians work in small businesses and factories across Turkey. “They’ve filled all the low-paying jobs. Without Syrians, business owners say they'll go bankrupt, since that keeps costs down." This reliance on Syrian workers, and their departure, also comes as Turkey faces a demographic time bomb. “The birth rate has declined substantially. The Turkish birth rate is 1.5, and you know, replacement is 2.1," Yesilada added. He warns the outlook for Turkey is grim, given the experience of other countries. "[The birthrate is] coming down significantly, and it's been going down for 20 years.… [the example of] China shows that there is nothing you can do about it.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently called on families to "serve the nation" by having at least three children. His minister of family and social services claimed nearly half of Turkish families didn't have children. To attract workers, visa and work permit restrictions were lifted last year for all Turkic Central Asian nations. Turkey blocks calls for regime change in Iran as protests escalate Rising costs But at the Inci Boya factory, owner Halil Yarabay is already counting the cost of Syrians...

The Syrian Army has made sweeping gains against Kurdish-led forces in northeast Syria, dealing a major blow to Syrian Kurdish autonomy and handing victories to both Damascus and neighbouring Turkey. With Washington abandoning its backing of the militia alliance, the Syrian Democratic Forces now face disbandment or renewed fighting. Within days, Syrian government troops swept aside the SDF and took control of vast areas of territory. The offensive followed the collapse of talks on integrating the SDF into the Syrian Army. Washington’s shift proved decisive. “The game changer was the American permission, the American green light to [Syrian President] Ahmed al-Sharaa. That opened the door to Damascus launching the offensive,” said Syria expert Fabrice Balanche, of Lyon University. The SDF had been a key US ally in the fight against Islamic State and relied on American support to deter an attack by Damascus. But with Islamic State now weakened and Sharaa joining Washington’s alliance against the group, the Kurds lost their leverage. “Trump viewed the relationship as temporary, not a true alliance,” said Balanche, a municipal councillor with France's rightwing Republicans party. French journalist arrested in Turkey while covering pro-Kurdish protest released US withdrawal and rapid collapse As Washington ended its support, many Arab tribes quit the Kurdish-led coalition. They aligned with Damascus, allowing government forces to advance quickly in Arab-majority areas. Several prisons holding Islamic State members fell to government control, with reports that hundreds escaped. Fears of wider instability pushed Washington to broker a ceasefire between the SDF and the Syrian government. Under the deal, SDF forces are to disband and merge into Syrian government units, a move backed by Ankara. Turkey has strongly supported the Damascus offensive. It accuses Kurdish elements within the SDF of links to the PKK, which has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state. “Turkey is certainly behind all these operations,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “The Turkish defence minister, General Chief of Staff, has recently been in Syria. So there is probably a common action.” Turkey blocks calls for regime change in Iran as protests escalate Kurdish tensions inside Turkey The assault has triggered protests by members of Turkey’s large Kurdish minority in support of Syrian Kurds. It has also coincided with talks between the pro-Kurdish Dem Party, the Turkish government and the outlawed PKK aimed at ending the conflict. The PKK declared a ceasefire and pledged to disband last year, but talks stalled months ago. Ankara has blamed the deadlock on the SDF’s refusal to join the PKK’s disarmament commitment. The fighting in Syria could deepen Kurdish disillusionment with the peace process, political analyst Sezin Oney, of the Politikyol news portal, warned. “They pictured this peace process as a big win for the PKK that finally all these rights, all the political rights, cultural rights, everything would be recognized, and a new era would begin," Oney said. "It's not that, and it won't be that there is nobody in Turkey on the side of the government who was envisioning such a change or anything of the sort." The Dem Party had few options left. “The only thing Dem can do is rally the Kurdish public in Turkey, and it is just going to be disbursed,” Oney added. Syrian army offensive in Aleppo draws support from Turkey Risk of wider bloodshed Turkish police have broken up many pro-SDF protests using water cannon and gas, carrying out hundreds of arrests. French journalist Raphael Boukandoura was detained and later released, in a move rights groups said was meant to intimidate foreign media. Without US intervention, Damascus would push further into Kurdish-held areas, Balanche warned. “Sharaa will seize everything." The risk of large-scale violence, he...

From tariff-funded refunds to tough talk with allies, trade has once again become a central theme of Donald Trump’s White House. One year into Trump's second mandate, economist Gerald Friedman walks RFI through the reality behind the rhetoric and looks to how the administration may ultimately be judged. One year after Donald Trump returned to the White House, his second administration has wasted little time putting trade at the forefront of policy. Tariffs, the US president insists, are delivering an economic renaissance. Inflation has supposedly all but vanished. The stock market is booming. Trillions of dollars are said to be pouring into the Treasury, with the promise of tariff-funded cheques soon landing in American letterboxes. Critics, Trump has declared, are "fools". Strip away the slogans, however, and the picture looks far less flattering. According to Gerald Friedman, professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Trump’s tariff-driven revival is built on shaky foundations – economically incoherent, politically vindictive and geopolitically destabilising. EU readies response to new US tariffs, France braces for fallout The numbers don’t add up From an economist’s perspective, Friedman says, Trump’s claims barely survive contact with reality. “Almost nothing” in the president’s upbeat assessment is true. Yes, the stock market is high, but only because a small group of technology giants dominates the indices. Remove them, and the wider market is essentially flat. The idea that tariffs are generating vast new revenues is equally illusory. Tariffs face an unavoidable contradiction: set them high enough to block imports and they raise little money; set them low enough to generate revenue and they fail to protect domestic industry. Either way, the notion that they are filling federal coffers with “trillions” is "fantasy". Friedman notes that “virtually no economists outside of those being paid through Donald Trump … support his tariff regime”, particularly given its random and unsystematic application. What is billed as strategic economic policy looks more like improvisation. Trump's first 100 days: Trade, diplomacy and walking the transatlantic tightrope Illusion of tariff-funded cheques The administration’s proposal to issue tariff-funded “refunds” – between $1,000 and $2,000 per household in early 2026 – has clear populist appeal. Economically, Friedman argues, it makes little sense. The US already runs a federal deficit of roughly $1.7 trillion a year, around 6 per cent of GDP. Washington does not need tariffs to send out cheques; it can simply borrow more. The real question is whether it should, particularly after extending large tax cuts for the wealthy that continue to inflate the deficit. There is a deeper irony. Tariffs, Friedman points out, already constitute “the biggest tax increase as a share of GDP that this country has had since the early 1990s”, adding roughly $1,500 a year to household costs through higher prices. Refunding some of that money would merely hand back what had just been taken – while leaving the underlying economic damage untouched. Inflation, eggs and everyday living Trump has repeatedly pointed to falling egg prices as proof that inflation is under control. Friedman underlines that egg prices surged because of bird flu, not economic policy, and fell as the outbreak eased. They are down by about half, not by the 85 per cent the president boasts about – “one of the smaller lies”, as Friedman puts it. Elsewhere, tariffs are doing exactly what economists expect: pushing prices up. Imports such as coffee and bananas cannot realistically be replaced by domestic production. Taxing them feeds directly into the cost of living. Households are paying more, not less. The impact does not stop at consumer prices. Retaliation and uncertainty are quietly undermining export industries. China has cut back on US soybean imports, hurting farmers. Canada is actively...