Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

The dollar was steady in early Asian trading as US-China trade talks entered a second day, with investors focused on this week's Federal Reserve policy decision. The key question for investors this week is whether Fed officials will push back against market bets on a series of interest-rate cuts extending into next year. A quarter-point reduction is seen as a sure thing when the Fed announces its policy decision Wednesday, with a small potential for a half-point move amid signs US job growth is slowing rapidly. We break down the forces driving Fed policy with Adam Coons, Chief Investment Officer at Winthrop Capital Management. The greenback was mixed against major currencies and US equity-index futures were little changed after the benchmark S&P 500 closed flat on Friday. Asian contracts signaled declines at the open, while Japan's markets are closed for a holiday. In addition to the Fed's decision on Wednesday, the Banks of Canada, England, and Japan are also set to announce policy decisions this week. We get more perspective on the week's monetary policy decisions from Louise Loo, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics. She speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Annabelle Droulers on The Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A relatively tame US inflation reading combined with more signs of jobs cooling spurred a rally on Wall Street amid speculation the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates for the first time this year. The highly anticipated consumer price index showed that while inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, it's not spinning out of control. Alongside that report came the usually noisy jobless-claims figures, which jumped to the highest in almost four years, emboldening bets policymakers will cut rates next week in an effort to counter a rapid slowdown in the labor market. We get the market views of Jim Craige, Co-Chief Investment Officer & Head of Emerging Markets at Stone Harbor Investment Partners. Plus - MSCI's gauge of Asian shares rose for a seventh day and neared a fresh record, after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes both climbed to fresh closing highs in New York. A gauge of global stocks also hit a new record. Contracts for US equities were little changed Friday. We get more perspective from Jun Bei Liu, Co-Founder and Lead Portfolio Manager at Ten Cap. She speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asian equities were mixed Thursday after a rally on Wall Street drove stocks and bonds higher, as a drop in producer prices supported bets the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates next week. An index of the dollar was little changed while the yen strengthened against the greenback early Thursday. The Wednesday moves in the US reflected fresh optimism that the Fed will cut rates next week after producer prices unexpectedly declined for the first time in four months. The data soothed worries that elevated inflation would create a challenge for policymakers trying prevent a jobs downturn ahead of US inflation figures due later Thursday. We get the views of Eric Fine, Portfolio Manager & Head of Active EM Debt at VanEck. Plus - UBS Group CEO Sergio Ermotti says the impact of global tariffs on the US economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy remains unclear. He made the comments ahead of the annual UBS Disruptive Technology CEO Summit in Hong Kong, which gets underway today. Ermotti speaks exclusively with Bloomberg's David Ingles in Bloomberg's Hong Kong bureau. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Key Asian stock gauges fluctuated Wednesday after the S&P 500 hit a record on hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to curb a jobs downturn. Shares in South Korea rose in early trading, while those in Japan and Australia were mixed. US equity futures contracts edged higher after Big Tech lifted the index on Tuesday, even as most shares fell. After fresh signs of a cooling labor market, investors are bracing for inflation reports in the coming days that will help shape next week's Fed meeting and the path of rate cuts into 2025 — a key test for whether Wall Street can sustain this month's rally. Money markets are almost fully projecting three Fed cuts this year, with US producer and consumer price index data due this week. We take a closer look with Zachary Hill, Head of Portfolio Management at Horizon Investments. Meantime, the yen was little changed early Wednesday after gaining Tuesday, following a report that Bank of Japan officials may raise interest rates again this year, regardless of domestic political instability. The timing of the BOJ report will make JGB traders a bit nervous about today's 5-year auction, which could mean a lower bid-to-cover ratio than last month's 2.96. However, after an initial knee-jerk selloff investors will likely find that secondary yields above 1% already price in a BOJ tightening. For more, we hear from Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds at PGIM Fixed Income. He speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asian stocks climbed for a fourth day on Tuesday as Wall Street's upbeat mood ahead of expected Federal Reserve rate cuts flowed into regional trading. MSCI's Asia-Pacific equities gauge reached its highest level since February 2021 with tech firms like Taiwan Semiconductor and Alibaba Group contributing most to the gains. Shares in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong rose, while those in Australia declined. The moves followed a surge in bets on rate cuts by the US central bank that pushed stocks near record highs on hopes that easier policy will bolster corporate America. We look at the market landscape with Carol Schleif, Chief Market Strategist at BMO Private Wealth. In Japan, the implications of the nation's latest political turmoil have spilled into markets. The Nikkei 225 advanced to touch a new intraday record high in the morning. The country's government bonds were firmer after having slumped Monday as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's decision to step down underscored expectations for looser fiscal policy. Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Gearoid Reidy joins with insight on the road ahead for Japan's ruling bloc. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he'll step down following weeks of calls for his departure in the aftermath of a second national election setback, setting in motion a leadership race that threatens to unnerve investors. Ishiba's resignation brings to an end a tenure marked by humiliating election results that stripped the Liberal Democratic Party's ruling coalition of its majorities in both chambers of parliament and left market participants unsure of Japan's fiscal plans. His departure is likely to fuel uncertainty among investors over the coming weeks until a new leader is chosen. We get reaction from Bloomberg's Sakura Murakami in Tokyo and Amy Catalinac, Associate Professor of Politics at New York University. They speak with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. Meantime, the yen dropped and Japanese stocks advanced after Prime Minister Ishiba announced plans to resign. The currency fell as much as 0.7% against the dollar, wiping out Friday's advance amid an increase in political uncertainty. US equity futures ticked up after the benchmark S&P 500 Index slid on Friday after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report on Friday ratcheted fears of a rapidly cooling labor market. We get the market perspectives of Candace Browning, Head of Global Research at BofA Securities. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. --------------------------------------------------------------- - Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, to preview CPI and PPI data. - Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, to preview Apple’s September 9th event. - Ros Mathieson, Bloomberg Chief Asia Correspondent, on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event. - Tony Halpin, Russian Government and Economy Team Leader, on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event. - Mary Nicola, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore, discusses China August CPI and PPI data. - Kevin Sneader, APAC ex-Japan President at Goldman Sachs, discusses China’s stock rally. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The S&P 500 added 0.8% to a new peak while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9% on Thursday. US futures edged higher in early Asian trading ahead of Friday's August jobs report. The Nikkei 225 index rose by more than 1% after President Donald Trump signed an executive order implementing his trade agreement with Japan. We get the latest from Balazs Penz, Bloomberg News Desk Editor in Hong Kong. He speaks with Bloomberg's Avril Hong and Paul Allen on The Asia Trade. The policy-sensitive US two-year yield fell three basis points to the lowest in around a year Thursday. Money markets almost fully priced in a Fed reduction this month and see at least two by year-end. The action reflected the latest readings on hiring and unemployment claims before Friday's jobs data, which is expected to extend the weakest stretch of US job growth since the pandemic. Slowing demand, rising costs and President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies have cooled hiring, adding pressure on the Fed to shore up the labor market. We get market perspective from David Chao, Global Market Strategist, Asia Pacific at Invesco. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asian equities climbed with Wall Street after weak US job openings data reinforced bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. Shares in Japan, Australia and South Korea gained at the open. Equity-index futures for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 edged higher after both gauges advanced. Australian bonds tracked Wednesday's moves in Treasuries, with yields on the 10-year declining almost five basis points to 4.37%. We get reaction from Audrey Goh, Head of Asset Allocation at Standard Chartered Wealth Management Group. She speaks with Bloomberg's Paul Allen and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. Plus - Goldman Sachs strategists are raising their 12-month forecast for Asian stocks, citing tariff clarity and expectations for Federal Reserve easing in September. For more, we hear from Timothy Moe, Chief APAC Regional Equity Strategist. He speaks with Bloomberg's Avril Hong from the inaugural Goldman Sachs Asia Leaders Conference in Hong Kong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A major military parade is underway in Beijing, where Chinese President Xi Jinping is joined by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un. The rare gathering of America's top rivals marks 80 years since Japan's WWII defeat and features a showcase of hypersonic missiles, combat drones, and nuclear-capable systems. The event is a centerpiece of Xi's broader push to rally nationalist sentiment and signal China's rising global clout amid tensions with Washington. Bloomberg's Stephen Engle is tracking the parade from Tiananmen Square. He spoke with Bloomberg's Avril Hong and Paul Allen on The Asia Trade. Plus - Goldman Sachs is hosting its first-ever Asia Leaders Conference in Hong Kong. The event is billed as bringing together though leaders and senior executives from the most important companies in the Asia-Pacific. It was there that we heard from Robert Kaplan, Goldman's Vice Chairman and former President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. He weighed in on monetary policy and the search for the next Fed chair in an exclusive conversation with Bloomberg's Avril Hong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Equity-index futures for Japan pointed to a modest gain after chip stocks pushed the Nikkei-225 index lower Monday. Contracts also indicated modest moves for Hong Kong and Australia. US equity-index futures edged lower with cash markets closed Monday for Labor Day. Investors will also be watching Japan's 10-year government bond auction Tuesday, which will be a key test of appetite amid growing expectations of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and mounting political uncertainty. Stateside, Wall Street's record-breaking stock rally now faces a pivotal test, with jobs numbers, inflation data and the Federal Reserve's rate call all landing within the next three weeks. Tariff tensions and questions over the Fed's independence were also compounding the risks in September, historically the weakest month of the year for US markets. We look at the current market landscape with Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at BofA Global Research. He speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. Plus - Chinese President Xi Jinping secured an agreement from partner countries to set up a new development bank, realizing a longtime ambition in a display of Beijing's growing influence. Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization agreed to establish the institution, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Monday at the end of the two-day SCO summit that gathered Xi's closest international allies in the Chinese port city of Tianjin. In a joint declaration, member countries including India and Russia expressed opposition to unilateral coercive measures and vowed to facilitate trade within the group. We get reaction from Henry Huiyao Wang, Founder and President of the Center for China and Globalization. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held their first meeting since Donald Trump returned to power, with the longstanding Asian rivals pledging deeper cooperation as they deal with the economic fallout from the US trade war. Modi announced the resumption of direct flights between the two countries, and said ties in the past year have stabilized after soldiers pulled back from the friction points on the border. The two met at the port city of Tianjin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, a security-focused bloc co-founded by China. Bloomberg's Stephen Engle reports from Tianjin. Meantime, Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto moved to quell widespread protests across the country with parliament removing hefty lawmaker allowances that had sparked public outrage, while warning that firm action will be taken against violent demonstrators. For more, we hear from Faris Mokhtar, Bloomberg's Southeast Asia Global Business Reporter in Jakarta. He speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. Asian investors may tread cautiously on Monday amid uncertainty following a US federal appeals court ruling that President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs were illegal. Contracts for the S&P 500 rose 0.2% and those for the Nasdaq 100 index advanced 0.3% in early Asian trading after a selloff in technology shares Friday trimmed the gains for the month. Contracts indicated losses for Australian and Japanese shares at the open, and gains in Hong Kong. US bond futures nudged lower, with the cash market closed for the Labor Day holiday. We look at the market landscape with Ron Temple, Chief Market Strategist at Lazard. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them, but the judges let the levies stay in place while the case is subject to further review. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit on Friday upheld an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade that Trump wrongfully invoked an emergency law to issue the tariffs. But the appellate judges sent the case back to the lower court to determine if it applied to everyone affected by tariffs or just the parties involved in the case. Friday’s 7-4 decision by the Federal Circuit could extend the suspense over whether Trump’s tariffs will ultimately stand. The case had been expected to next go to the Supreme Court for a final ruling. The administration could now turn to the justices, who have largely backed the president on other matters. But the White House could also let the Court of International Trade revisit the matter first. “ALL TARIFFS ARE STILL IN EFFECT!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social shortly after the decision was issued. For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Balance of Power cohost Joe Mathieu speaks with Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center Democracy Visiting Fellow Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Stonecourt Capital Partner Rick Davis, both Bloomberg politics contributors. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to a record Thursday after data showed the US economy expanded faster than initially estimated, highlighting the resilience of consumer spending. While that soothed recession jitters, it raised doubts about the upcoming inflation report, which is expected to show core personal consumption expenditures prices rising 2.9% in July, the fastest pace in five months. We look ahead to the July PCE numbers - and what they could mean for Fed policy - with Alonso Munoz, Chief Investment Officer at Hamilton Capital Partners. Meanwhile, shares opened lower in Japan and Australia while South Korea climbed. Oil fell 0.6% after gaining in the previous session on waning prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The yen held steady against the dollar. We discuss the potential rollover effect of Friday's US inflation data on global markets with Raj Singh, Multi Asset Portfolio Manager at Principal Asset Management. He speaks with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equity-index futures and shares of Nvidia retreated after the chipmaker's sales outlook missed lofty expectations, weighing on sentiment around the world's most valuable listed company. Nvidia said Wednesday that sales will be roughly $54 billion in the fiscal third quarter, which runs through October. Though that was in line with the average Wall Street estimate, some analysts had projected more than $60 billion. The outlook adds to concern that the pace of investment in AI systems is unsustainable. Difficulties in China also have clouded Nvidia's business. Though the Trump administration recently eased curbs on exports of some AI chips to that country, the reprieve hasn't yet translated into a rebound in revenue. We get reaction from David Waddell, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist at Waddell & Associates. Meantime, Bloomberg Opinion's Shuli Ren says a new China-buys-China narrative is taking shape as Beijing steps up its tech rivalry with the US. In her latest column, she writes that the world's second-largest economy not only wants to build generative AI models, but power them with its own hardware, redrawing a supply chain dominated by Nvidia. Shuli joins Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nvidia, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, fueling concerns that a massive run-up in artificial intelligence spending is slowing. Sales will be roughly $54 billion in the fiscal third quarter, which runs through October, the company said in a statement Wednesday. Though that was in line with the average Wall Street estimate, some analysts had projected more than $60 billion. The forecast excluded data center revenue from China, a market where it has struggled with US export restrictions and opposing pressure from Beijing. The outlook adds to concern that pace of investment in artificial intelligence systems is unsustainable. The difficulties in China also have clouded Nvidia’s business. Though the Trump administration recently eased curbs on exports of some AI chips to that country, the reprieve hasn’t yet translated into a rebound in revenue. For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Tim Stenovec and Isabelle Lee speak with: See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A gauge of the dollar and longer-dated Treasuries steadied in Asia after they declined Tuesday following President Donald Trump's push to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The gap between five and 30-year yields is at its steepest since 2021. While political meddling in monetary policy after Trump's move drew much of the market's focus, traders face key risks this week with Nvidia's earnings and Friday's inflation report. Even with tariff and geopolitical headlines flaring, investors remain anchored to a bullish market script: a likely September rate cut, resilient economic growth, and corporate earnings strong enough to keep equity sentiment afloat. We look at the state of play with Robert Schein, Chief Investment Officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management. Meantime, Asian equities struggled for direction at the open Wednesday as investors await Nvidia's earnings for guidance on where the markets head next after a strong rally since April. Shares edged up in Australia while gauges in Japan and South Korea were flat. We get more on the markets from Kerry Craig, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. He speaks with Bloomberg's Paul Allen and Avril Hong on The Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The dollar dropped and gold gained after President Donald Trump removed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank. A gauge of the dollar retreated 0.3% as Cook will be removed from the position effective immediately, according to a letter Trump posted on his Truth Social account. The yen appreciated. Treasuries flipped after initially gaining on the news, sending yields on the benchmark 10-year higher by one basis point to 4.28%. Gold rose 0.5%. Asian stocks fell along with equity-index futures for US and Europe as Trump also threatened to place export curbs on chips. We get reaction from Peter McGuire, CEO at Trading.com Australia. Meantime, stocks were already under pressure after initial optimism about the Fed lowering interest rates vanished and US stocks retreated Monday. Stocks rallied on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door for a possible interest-rate cut. The sense of euphoria eased as doubts over the pace of those reductions lingered on Wall Street as traders braced for a not-so-friendly price reading later this week. We examine the path ahead for monetary policy and the markets with Mary Ann Bartels, Chief Investment Strategist at Sanctuary Wealth. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.