Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party sealed a new coalition deal that sets up Sanae Takaichi to become the country's first female prime minister. LDP President Takaichi and Hirofumi Yoshimura, co-leader of the Japan Innovation Party, also known as Ishin, signed the coalition agreement on Monday evening. Combined, the LDP and Ishin hold 231 seats in the lower house of parliament. While that is two seats shy of a majority, divisions between opposition parties mean Takaichi is almost certain to win a parliamentary vote on Tuesday to decide the prime minister. We get perspective from Sheila Smith, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Asia Pacific Studies. She spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong. Plus - Wall Street traders drove stocks higher amid solid signals from Corporate America and hopes that tensions between the world's two largest economies are cooling. Bond yields edged lower. With the earnings season well underway, about 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting results so far have beaten profit estimates. That's helped fuel a rebound in equities, with the benchmark notching its best two-day gain since June. Sentiment was also buoyed by expectations the trade war will de-escalate as the US and China return to the negotiating table. We heard from Carol Schleif, Chief Market Strategist at BMO Private Wealth. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asian stocks opened higher on Monday following two consecutive weeks of declines as easing trade tensions between the world's largest economies bolstered sentiment. Shares in Japan and South Korea rose, while Australia dipped, after the region's equities fell on Friday amid concerns on US regional banks. Also, one of China's most important meetings begins on Monday. Chinese President Xi Jingping and other ruling Communist Party Elites will gather in Beijing to map out goals for the next five years. For more, we heard from heard from Fabien Yip, IG International Market Analyst. Yip spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Annabelle Droulers. Plus - Lawmakers in the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) are set to meet this afternoon to decide whether to form an alliance with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party that would likely lead to Sanae Takaichi becoming the country's first female prime minister. A gathering of Ishin lawmakers from both houses of parliament that begins at 2 p.m. in Tokyo may be followed by a meeting between Takaichi and Ishin leaders in the evening to confirm the alliance before a vote in parliament tomorrow to elect a prime minister, national broadcaster NHK reported. For more perspective, we heard from Nicholas Smith, CLSA Japan Strategist. He spoke to Bloomberg's Annabelle Droulers and Shery Ahn. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato voiced serious concern over China's latest export controls on rare earths, stressing the importance of coordinated action from Group of Seven nations. "Japan is deeply concerned about these measures," Kato told reporters in Washington on Wednesday, referring to China's latest trade measures. "I called for G-7 nations to unite and respond," Kato said. Kato spoke following a G-7 meeting held on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings. Also in Japan, ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi's chances of becoming prime minister strengthened after progress on policy talks with the Japan Innovation Party, with Monday emerging as a deadline for deciding whether the parties form a new coalition. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Osaka-based JIP, also known as Ishin, confirmed they are on the same page on major policy items. But one major sticking point remains in place: reforms on political funding rules. For more perspective, we speak to Shuntaro Takeuchi, Portfolio Manager at Matthews Asia. Plus - Stocks slid, extending a weeklong stretch of volatility on Wall Street, as bad loans at two regional banks stirred concern about credit quality in the economy and further underscored the fragility of the $28 trillion bull market. Following an earlier advance driven by another solid outlook for artificial-intelligence demand, the S&P 500 turned lower as a pair of regional lenders disclosed problems with loans involving allegations of fraud, adding to concern that more cracks are emerging in borrowers' creditworthiness. We turn to Jeff Palma, Head of Multi Asset at Cohen & Steers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dangled the possibility of extending a pause of import duties on Chinese goods for longer than three months if China halts its plan for strict new export controls on rare-earth elements. The US and China have agreed to a series of 90-day truces since earlier this year, with the next deadline looming in November. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is set to have his first sit down in the White House with President Trump next week. The meeting comes as the Trump administration's interest in critical mineral resources has fueled speculation the US government may take stakes in Australian miners as part of a broader strategic relationship. Also key for Albanese is the fate of the Aukus security agreement that the US signed with Australia and the UK in 2021 to counter China's military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region. Central to the deal is a project — expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars — to help Australia develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. To help us preview the meeting, we speak to Bloomberg's Paul Allen. Plus - Wall Street was lashed with volatility as investors struggled to gauge the scope of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. Stocks rallied, plunged, then rose anew amid optimism over earnings. As the earnings season got under way, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. jumped on solid results. We speak to Keith Buchanan, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Donald Trump said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China, injecting fresh tensions into the relationship between the world's two largest economies. Trump on Tuesday cast the potential move as retaliation against Beijing for its refusal to buy American soybeans, which he said "is an Economically Hostile Act" that is purposefully "causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers." The benchmark S&P 500 turned negative as Trump's comments re-escalated the conflict with China. Just hours earlier, both Trump and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expressed confidence that friction would ease through ongoing trade talks. We get perspective from Sandra Swirski, Founder & CEO of Integer. Plus - Earnings season has just kicked off. A gauge of big banks jumped after solid results from financial giants. Also today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the US central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point interest-rate cut later this month, even as a government shutdown significantly reduces its read on the economy. For more, we turn to Rob Williams, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Strategist at Sage Advisory Services. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping's latest tit-for-tat showdown has both countries claiming the ball is now in the other's court, with the clock ticking toward another escalation in import tariffs. Meantime, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that he believes the Trump-Xi meeting "will still be on," noting there had been "substantial communication over the weekend." In the meantime, he expected US-China staff-level meetings this week, along with moves by the Trump administration to mobilize US allies to put pressure on Beijing, while also threatening "straight brute force countermeasures" if Beijing doesn't act. For more on how this impacted the markets, we heard from James Aitken, Aitken Advisors Founder & Managing Partner. He spoke to Bloomberg's Paul Allen at the Citi ANZ Investment Conference. Plus - Wall Street traders lifted stocks as the US and China signaled willingness to keep trade negotiations alive, Middle East tensions cooled while the artificial-intelligence rally powered ahead. Following its worst rout in six months, the S&P 500 jumped 1.6% to extend a bull market that's already added $28 trillion to its value. The benchmark saw its best session since May. A key gauge of chipmakers surged nearly 5%. Broadcom Inc. soared about 10% as OpenAI agreed to buy its custom chips and networking equipment in a multiyear agreement. For more, we spoke to Matthew Tuttle, CEO and CIO of Tuttle Capital Management. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equity-index futures jumped in early trading and oil rebounded as President Donald Trump's administration signaled openness Sunday to a deal with China to quell fresh trade tensions while also warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing were a major barrier to talks. Vice President JD Vance called on Beijing to "choose the path of reason" in the latest spiraling trade fight between the world's two leading economies, claiming that Trump has more leverage if the fight drags on. Trump later posted a statement that hinted at a possible off-ramp for Chinese President Xi Jinping while issuing a veiled threat that a full trade war would wound China. For more, we spoke to Paul Dobson, Bloomberg's Executive Editor for Asia Markets. Plus - The bull market in US stocks is having its third anniversary on Sunday, but if history is any guide it needs to broaden out soon to keep running. The S&P 500 Index began its current bull run on Oct. 12, 2022, soaring 83% in that time and adding about $28 trillion in market value. While the gain was 88% before Friday's selloff on President Donald Trump's threat of a "massive increase" in tariffs on goods from China, the benchmark's 13% jump over the past 12 months is still twice the average rise in the third year of a bull market, according to CFRA Research. We speak to Frances Stacey, Wealth Manager at Scarlet Oak Financial. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

TSMC is poised to release its Q3 earnings report next week. The company is likely to excel, with both revenue and gross margins expected to defeat consensus supported by strong July-August sales data. TSMC is due to release its September sales data and the figures could offer some insight into wider semiconductor demand. We turn to Debby Wu, Team Leader for North Asia Technology at Bloomberg News. Plus, US stocks closed at a record on Wednesday, thanks to shares benefiting from the artificial-intelligence boom as traders parsed minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting that showed a willingness to lower interest rates further this year. For more, we turn to Chuck Lieberman, Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Advisors Capital Management. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Spot gold prices climbed above $4,000 an ounce for the first time, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown added fresh momentum to a scorching rally. Bullion climbed as much as 0.4% to $4,001.01 an ounce on Wednesday. It’s a milestone moment for the metal that traded below $2,000 just two years ago, with returns that now well outstrip those for equities this century. Gold has jumped more than 50% this year in the face of uncertainties over global trade, the Federal Reserve’s independence and fiscal stability in the US. At the same time, geopolitical tensions have boosted demand for haven assets, while central banks have continued to buy gold at an elevated pace. For more, we spoke to by Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. Plus, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will likely face a tougher political environment in the second half of his five-year term starting Thursday after the ruling party leadership victory of Sanae Takaichi, a critic of interest rate increases. Ueda already faces a dilemma. The central bank appeared to be laying the groundwork for its first interest rate hike since January later this month. Now, following Takaichi's win, if Ueda goes ahead with an increase he risks antagonizing a premier who might then seek more sway over the BOJ's decisions going forward. For more, we spoke to Bloomberg's Paul Jackson. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A rally in chipmakers sent stocks to all-time highs as Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s deal with OpenAI added fuel to the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered Wall Street. Bonds fell. The dollar rose. OpenAI will deploy 6 gigawatts' worth of AMD graphics processing units over multiple years, according to the pact, which is just over half the size of an agreement the AI startup recently reached with Nvidia. It also sets the stage for OpenAI to acquire a large stake in the chipmaker. The deal represents a high-stakes test for AMD — one that could deliver tens of billions of dollars in new revenue and burnish its status as a serious contender in AI technology. There are also risks: It further ties AMD's prosperity to an AI market that some worry is in a bubble. For more on the markets, we turn to Ed Butowsky, managing partner of Chapwood Investments. We turn to Japan, where they are set to have its first ever woman leader in Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi wants to become the country's version of her Idol, Margaret Tatcher. However, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Gearoid Reidy writes that some might fear that she might be another Liz Truss. He joins us to explain. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Japanese stocks rallied and the yen weakened after a ruling-party vote positioned pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi to become Japan's next leader. Takaichi is set to become Japan's first female prime minister after winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership contest Saturday. Investors had expected the seat to go to political scion Shinjiro Koizumi, who was seen as taking a more fiscally cautious view and leaving the Bank of Japan to press ahead with normalization. While Takaichi's appointment has lifted growth expectations, it has also raised concern over increasing bond supply while reducing chances of a BOJ rate hike this month. Elsewhere, gold advanced above $3,900 an ounce to yet another record, extending a rally that's been a feature of commodity markets all year. Bitcoin also set another all-time high over the weekend. Oil advanced after OPEC+ agreed Sunday to revive just 137,000 barrels a day of halted supply — a slower pace than earlier this year. Equity-index futures for the US also rose in early Asian trading. For more, we turn to Paul Dobson, Bloomberg's Executive Editor for Asia Markets. And for more reaction on Sanae Takaichi's win, we hard from Christopher LaFleur, Chairman at the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan. He spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on the Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the US, stocks just notched record highs thanks to the tech rally. That is despite an ongoing government shutdown. Meantime, emerging markets are facing challenges from political risks in South America to Asia's slowdown under tariffs. For more insights, we turn to Jeff Grills – Head of EM Debt at Aegon Asset Management. We go to Japan, where the country will get its second prime minister in just over a year when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party holds a leadership election this weekend. The new leader will replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was forced to resign after a historic upper house election loss in July. For more, we heard from David Boling, Eurasia Group Director for Japan and Asian Trade. Boling spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on the Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US stocks ended Wednesday's session higher, notching a new record and seemingly shrugging off the first government shutdown in nearly seven years. Treasuries rallied after private payrolls data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later this month. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose for a fourth consecutive session. We spoke to John Pantekidis, Managing Partner at TwinFocus. Plus - Asian equities gained at the open after global stocks rallied to a new all-time high, shrugging off the first US government shutdown in nearly seven years. Stocks in Japan, South Korea and Australia all rose with gains in chips and technology stocks the most notable. We spoke to Ritesh Ganeriwal, Head of Investment & Advisory at Syfe. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US government hurtled toward a Wednesday shutdown as Democrats blocked a Republican stopgap funding package that didn't address their demands, the latest sign that neither party was likely to fold in the final hours before a federal funding deadline. With no more votes planned in the Senate before a midnight deadline, the White House's Office of Management and Budget instructed government agencies to "execute their plans for an orderly shutdown." Despite the risk of a shutdown, US equities notched a second straight quarter of gains. We spoke to is Viraj Patel, Executive VP & Head of Asset Allocation at Fiduciary Trust International. Plus - China's Golden Week starts, with all eyes on consumption over the holiday. Millions are set to travel, shop, and dine during that time period. Their spending data will offer clues on whether deflationary pressures are easing and if policy support is translating into real economic activity. To encourage consumption, city governments are issuing coupons largely targeting autos, dining and tourism, while the central government released service-industry stimulus measures, including extended museum hours and more sports events. For more, we spoke to Catherine Lim, Senior Analyst: Consumer and Technology for Bloomberg Intelligence. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks posted modest gains on Monday as concerns mounted about a looming US government shutdown possibly delaying the release of key labor-market data that could provide clues about how fast the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Vice President JD Vance said he believes the US government is on track to shut down, seeking to pin the blame on Democrats one day before federal funding is set to lapse. "I think we're headed into a shutdown because the Democrats won't do the right thing," Vance said Monday following a meeting with congressional leaders at the White House. "I hope they change their mind, but we're going to see." For more, we turn to Bill Campbell – Global Bond Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine. And President Donald Trump's new plan to end the Gaza war is, in essence, an ultimatum to Hamas to release hostages, give up arms and surrender — or face the full force of the Israeli military with the US's explicit blessing. Trump said Israel would have his "full backing to finish the job" if Hamas rejects the offer, and Israeli troops and tanks are now in the heart of Gaza City, from which 800,000 Palestinians have fled. In that sense, the offer is familiar — and it is one that Hamas has repeatedly rejected over the course of the war. We heard from Kirstin Fontenrose, President of President of Red Six International. She spoke to Bloomberg's Avril Hong and Shery Ahn on the Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the US, top congressional leaders plan to meet with President Donald Trump on Monday, a day before federal funding would expire if an agreement on a short-term spending bill can't be reached. A shutdown would threaten the release of key data including Friday's payrolls report, key to assessing whether the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates next month. We heard from James Abate, Managing Director, Head of Fundamental Strategies at Horizon Investments. And - Asian stocks moved in a tight range at the open. Over the weekend, Chinese Industrial profits in August climbed 20.4% from a year earlier, the first increase in four months, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Factory deflation eased for the first time in six months. For more, we heard from Sian Fenner, Westpac Head of Business and Industry Economics. She spoke to Bloomberg's Avril Hong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.