The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

I’d like to invite you to our upcoming Build To Scale Mastermind Nov 9-13 in Tulum Mexico. This exclusive four day event is for you to learn how to scale your business and your life. This is an opportunity for you to spend 4 high quality days with the leadership at Y Street Capital and take your investing business to the next level. To learn more, click HERE. ------------ On today’s show we are looking at the value of a piece of property that has a rail connection on it. When it comes to transportation and logistics, rail is significantly less expensive than trucking. Rail costs about $0.02 per ton mile versus about $0.10 per ton mile or more when transporting by truck. For bulk commodities, and for shipping containers rail can be much less expensive. That means that transporting a 20 foot long shipping a container by truck from Los Angeles to New York would cost about $7,500. By comparison, that same trip by rail would cost about $1,400. The savings are substantial. But once you get the rail car to the destination, you still need to switch from rail to road for the last mile, or perhaps the last few miles. This short haul trip is going to be disproportionately expensive. -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Join us at the Build To Scale Mastermind in Tulum Mexico on November 9-13. This is an opportunity to spend 4 high quality days with the leadership at Y Street Capital and learn how to scale your business and your life. Click HERE to find out more. -------------- The office apocalypse has been felt across most major markets worldwide. The impact of the pandemic was to reduce the need for conventional office space. There are still people working from home who were in an office environment in 2019. But slowly, demand for conventional office space is normalizing. We are seeing it in multiple markets. On today’s show we are going to look at San Francisco. This city took a major hit in office vacancy. Several commercial real estate reports indicate that the peak office vacancy rate in San Francisco was 36.6% in the first quarter of 2024, according to CBRE. We've seen a turnaround in leasing activity with net absorption of 779,919 square feet. Listen to find out who is leasing and why. --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about how to reduce the cost of construction. Is it worth your time to look for savings in a construction project, or should you just accept that things cost more? On one of our projects we have been going through a value engineering exercise. This is where you look closely at the design specifications and find ways to save money in the project without compromising the end product. You can sometimes face escalating costs because of the assumptions being made in the project. Our team has been meeting twice a week, and sometimes three times a week to pull cost out of this one particular project. I’m going to show you a few ways in which we are saving money on a large scale. What I’m going to share are real life examples from one of our development projects. We saved nearly $1M in the budget in about an hour of work. ------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today show, we are talking about the impact of the newly announced $100,000 fee associated with the H1B visa to the United States. According to my research, historically the United States had admitted 65,000 H1 B visas per year with an additional 20,000 visa for those holding advanced US degrees. Anytime there is a major policy shift. The marketplace will adapt and find a new way to optimize the allocation of talent. Silicon Valley was cited as one of the Main reasons for the policy change. The tech industry has seen significant layoffs over the past year. Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook have all released tens of thousands over the past year. The policy change will probably see some of those laid off workers getting rehired and those international workers covered by a visa, now a very expensive visa, being sent home to their country of origin. The largest user of H1B visas is Amazon with over 14,600 visa holders. At $100,000 a year each, this would cost an additional $1.4B in fees to the US government. I personally would be surprise if any company would just roll over and pay for an additional $1.4B in fees. The top users are Amazon, TCS from India with about 5500, Microsoft with a little over 5100, Meta with about 5100. Even Walmart has about 2400. I would bet that Walmart would move those positions to their software design center in Toronto or Ottawa and save $239M dollars with zero loss of productivity. When I ran an engineering organization, we did not use the H1B Visa program to import labour per se. We used the program to bring a few people from some of the remote design centres and immerse them in the culture in our Sunnyvale office so that they could in turn cross pollinate the culture across the organization. It gave that individual a foreign expat assignment and at the same time improved the cohesiveness between the different design centres around the world. They would later return to their remote design centre. I personally believe that the use of the H1B Visa will drop to nearly zero with the imposition of this new policy. That means another 100,000 people in high paying jobs will likely leave the US. These people will probably continue to work for the same company from their country of origin, if they are an individual contributor. If they are in a managerial role, then the relationship gets more complicated. I truly can’t think of too many companies that will be willing to pay that $100,000 fee for the visa. This year 2025 was the first year in which US population has shrunk in almost 100 years. Shrinking population means a shrinking economy, especially when you consider that 70% of the GDP is based on consumption. ---------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

There is a seismic shift—not in real estate, but in a sector that will fundamentally reshape how we think about how health care services are delivered. That in turn will have an impact on the needs for real estate in a health care setting. Family medicine has evolved. When I was a child, the family doctor was a self employed professional. Their office had one name on the door, and behind the waiting room was a sliding glass window for the receptionist, who often also doubled as the doctor’s assistant. That model is completely obsolete and has been replaced by the family health team clinic which has several owners, numerous associates, nurses, a nurse practitioner, and even other services like a dietitian, a blood lab, an imaging lab. All of these things under one roof in the name of efficiency. Increasingly, these clinics are not owner operated, but instead are associated with a larger healthcare provider. But just like technology has disrupted retail and media, it’s now coming for healthcare. The first wave was simple telehealth—video calls with your doctor. This was multiplied out of necessity during the pandemic. That was a good start. It saved a trip for a quick follow-up or a prescription refill. But it is limited. The game changer is the technology that brings diagnostic equipment to the patient. Some health care systems have already adopted the technology. Somewhere between 60-80% of office visits can be handled by telehealth, augmented with the diagnostic equipment. The change is coming, and it is clear as day. Commercial real estate has taken a beating since the pandemic. Medical office has been one of the remaining segments of stability in the office market. I can’t tell you how quickly the technology will penetrate the market. I predict that within the next five years, today’s existing technology will achieve sufficient market penetration that we will see a significant reduction in medical office footprints. ------------ **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Jon Ostenson is based in Atlanta, Georgia where he specializes in brokering business. On today's show we are talking about businesses the break the franchising stereotype. Many are complementary to real estate investments. To connect with Jon and to learn more, visit https://franbridgeconsulting.com/ -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Chuck Cuda is focused on redevelopment of deeply distressed inner city retail projects in the Kansas City area. The focus is on value creation and removal of blight. This is a strategy that could be viable in most US cities. To connect with Chuck and to learn more, visit https://opescre.com/ or email him directly at cuda@opescre.com. Also check out his new book "The Ego Strength" available on Amazon. ----------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we talking about the role a general contractor. On a large project there are a lot of moving parts. There can be several subcontractors working at the same time on different aspects of the project. You can have plumbers in one building, electricians in another, windows being installed in another, and exterior cladding being installed with telescoping lifts. At the same time you can have drywall, painting and finishing happening in other parts of the project. There is just a lot going on. A big part of the job of the general contractor is to monitor progress for the scope of work in each of these areas. They need to be monitoring the staffing that the subcontractors are bringing to the project and setting clear expectations with the subcontractors on their level of staffing on the project. Some things do take time. Nine women can’t make a baby in a month. But you can improve the progress with nine times the number of drywallers, nine times the number of painters, and nine times the number of carpenters. Construction schedules are very compressible. --------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are going to take a look at the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Wednesday of this week. There has been lots covered about this on virtually every news channel. What I'm covering hopefully is different from what you might be hearing. All eyes were on the Federal Reserve today. But the Bank of Canada also cut their key lending rate by 0.25% today bringing the Canadian central bank’s rate down to 2.5%. Most Canadian banks followed the rate announcement with a cut to their prime lending rate of 0.25% down to 4.7%. This is the rate that Canadian banks charge to their customers. In the summer of last year, banks were charging 6.7% for loans. Today, that’s 4.7%. This makes a difference. While the news is welcome, This rate cut is a reflection of economic weakness in Canada which has been impacted by the trade war with the US. Canada’s unemployment rate is high at 7.1%. While the US unemployment rate is officially 4.3%, we have to remember that the BLS has tinkered with the definition of unemployed over the years. They still do report the numbers as they did in the 1970’s and 1980’s. This is the U6 metric which if it were compared to the unemployment rate back then, would be at 8.3% in the US. ------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Today is another AMA episode (Ask Me Anything). Our question comes from Greg who writes: After listening to your recent segment on oil production data, it does not seem any data from the US government is accurate. We’ve known for a long time the jobs data is flawed. It would seem there are much better ways of collecting data. Is this simple incompetence or are there anterior motives for publishing bad data; additionally, is the data from other developed nations this bad? Thank you for your insight. Love the show. -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are looking to connect the dots between new home construction, demand for lumber, and home sales. We are answering the question, Is this a possible boom for new rental properties? So here we are going into the fourth quarter with several headwinds and a couple of tailwinds. If you are looking to start a construction project, this might be an excellent time. Construction labor are looking for work in many markets and will price their labor more aggressively. Labor has become the dominant cost in many projects. Material prices are falling in some segments. Lumber is a great example. We have falling interest rates. I say this irrespective of what the Federal Reserve may announce on Wednesday this week. The US 10 year Treasury is hovering around 4% and the Canadian 5 year commercial mortgage bond rate fell below 3%. It’s now around 2.92%. All of this happened with no central bank announcements. So if your capital costs are falling and your material prices are falling, and you are going into a seasonal slower time period with lower demand for labor, these are significant tailwinds. The only headwinds that I can see are the tariffs. The other headwinds are falling prices for single family homes. But if you’re building rental apartments, and your market has the right supply and demand dynamics for rentals, this might be one of the best times to build, starting in the 4th quarter and into the first quarter of next year. You might be thinking that you’re building a commercial building and you don’t use much lumber. What’s happening to steel prices ? OK, Let’s look at that. Steel prices seem to have mirrored the same dynamic as lumber, but to a smaller degree. Prices peaked at the end of July at $3333 per ton. On Sept 11, they were at $3006 per ton. Today they’ve rebounded a bit to $3070 per ton. We saw the same thing in copper. Prices were $5.80 per pound for copper and they fell in a matter of days to $4.36 per pound. Today the prices are hovering closer to what has been an average for the past year at $4.60 per pound. So this is not just a softwood lumber phenomenon. --------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

We have seen some spectacular revisions in economic data over the past couple of years. We've seen it in labor data, gross domestic product, inflation. These revisions are continuing to come. This time it's in the oil markets. The narratives are failing to explain what's happening behind the scenes. On top of that, the numbers are just plain wrong. For example US growth in oil demand was underestimated by a factor of 4 by the IEA. Mexico's oil consumption has been under-reported by 100,000 barrels a day for the last five years. The US oil consumption was off by 350 million barrels in the last 3 years. These are not small inaccuracies. Yet futures prices are being determined by these narratives. --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Fahad Farhat is based in Toronto where he specializes in luxury short term rentals. This conversation breaks the mold on what you think of short term rentals. He manages more than $30M of properties in Florida, Vegas, Muskoka, Toronto and several other key locations. To connect with Fahad, visit ffrealtor on Instagram or visit his website at artofgreatness.co. ------------ **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Aleksey Chernobelskiy is based in Phoenix Arizona where he is the principal at GPLPMatch.com. He brings a vast experience managing multi-billion dollar portfolios. Today, his new venture is adding value by providing a matching service between accredited investors and investment offerings where only the offerings that match the investor's selection criteria are presented. This helps reduce the noise that is so pervasive in the investing community. To connect with Aleksey, visit GPLPMatch.com or email him directly at Aleksey@gplpmatch.com. ------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about the design of a multi-unit building on a property that was originally designed for a single family home. There are many urban infill opportunities in major cities across North America. Earlier this week I was looking at a property for a consulting client that has the potential to be redeveloped from a single family home to a six unit apartment building. On today’s show I’m going to take you through the thinking of how we analyze this property to determine the basic feasibility. There are many aspects to this. There is the physical, can I get this to fit on the property in a reasonably cost effective manner. There is the financial where we analyze all of the financial levers in the project. We’re not going to talk about that today, we are just going to talk about the physical aspects of getting a project that complies with the zoning and will be sensible to build. ------------ **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are looking at the top five mistakes that rookie investors make when it comes to projects that have a construction component. 1. Failing to sync the construction contract and the lending terms 2. Failing to budget for pre-purchased materials that will not be included in construction draws until much later 3. Failing to bond over offsite improvements 4. Making sure you have the right type of construction contract for your project. 5. Making early design decisions that cascade a trail of increased costs in the project. -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

When you listen to J Powell speak from the podium at the FOMC meeting he typically talks about managing the Fed’s dual mandate to maintain price stability and to maximize employment. The past several years have been focused on taming inflation. Core PCE inflation measured 0.3% for the past two months June and July. We will get the August report on Sept 26. On an annualized basis Core PCE inflation remains pretty sticky at 2.9%. This is higher than the Fed’s 2% target. It’s not zero, and it’s not runaway inflation either. I don’t even get into the debate about whether the measurement is appropriate or not. We will take it for now that Core PCE is what the Fed needs to set interest rates. The other side of the coin is the labor market. If you’ve been listening to this show for a while, you will know that I’ve been flagging the inconsistencies between the two surveys that make up the employment report. There is the payroll survey and the household survey. The numbers reported in the two surveys are not consistent and have not been consistent for a long time. The employment report is the one that is most likely being overstated. Yesterday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced a significant downward revision to its employment data for the U.S. down 911,000 jobs compared with the previous estimate. That's a big deal. So with this latest employment data, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Fed will cut their benchmark lending rate at next week’s meeting. The real question is how much, and whether this will affect the medium term bond yield and the 10 year bond yield in particular. The bond yield is a reflection of risk for those bonds that have a risk premium attached to them. I don’t believe the US Treasury market is carrying a risk premium. So in the absence of a risk premium, the yield is a reflection of the economy. A weaker economic cycle will pull bond yields down as growth is going to take a hit. A stronger economy will bring inflationary pressure on prices which will tend to drive yields up. We have a 30 day t-bill trading at 4.17%, the 10 year treasury trading at 4.08%, and the 2 year trading at 3.55% and the 5 years trading at 3.61%. This is the market clearly signalling that over the medium term, interest rates are heading lower. That’s good news for real estate investors. ------------ **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

My wife and I just came back from a 7 day cruise from Seward Alaska to Vancouver in Canada. One of the stops was a port of call created specifically for the cruising industry called Icy Strait Point. This port is built into the side of an island off the coast of Alaska. Most people on the ship would have enjoyed the fresh cooked salmon, and marvelled at the numerous souvenir shops sprinkled throughout this manufactured village. I on the other hand looked at it through the lens of a real estate investment. Cruise lines are often looking for ports that charge low landing fees. These fees amount to huge sums over time. That’s why each major cruise line has built their own beach club at a private island in the Bahamas. They get a day at the beach with no port fees or landing fees. The investment structure for Icy Strait Point is a unique partnership where the Huna Totem Corporation, an Alaska Native village corporation, maintains full ownership and operational control, while major cruise lines act as key investors. This model allows the native corporation to retain sovereignty while securing the capital needed for port development. The investment came primarily from NCL and Royal Caribbean which gives these cruise lines preferential access to the port. Icy Strait Point is fully owned and operated by the Huna Totem Corporation, which represents more than 1,550 Alaska Native shareholders. All profits from the port are reinvested back into the community of Hoonah. When you travel, don't just eat the fish and buy a t-shirt, look behind the curtain at the investment structure. ------------ **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are taking a deep look at my forecast for the US economy over the next few years. What I’m about to share is not getting covered by the mainstream media as far as I can see. If we look through history, we know that economic growth and population growth are linked. It’s not that population growth alone is the cause of economic growth. It’s not enough by itself. But we know that you cannot have one without the other. The US population is now shrinking for the first time in a century. The last time the US population shrank was in the late 1920’s when jobs evaporated during the Great Depression and people who had come to the United States for work left the country. In the first several months of the new administration, immigration numbers are way down. We have fertility rates at historic lows. We have workforce participation falling as baby boomers retire. The only way that the US population and hence the economy can grow requires immigration. The US unemployment rate remains low because the workforce is shrinking. On Thursday we got a jobs report that surprised Wall Street and many economists. The real question in my mind is how many jobs does the economy need to generate if the population is shrinking. We might need to get used to low employment reports and this could represent the new normal. -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Mark Shuler is a practicing architect in Seattle Washington, now for more than 40 years. He started investing post 2008 and today is has more the 4,000 units under management. Today Mark is concentrated in Houston. We're talking investment thesis and how it's evolving in the Houston market in particular. To connect with Mark, visit sgreinvestments.com or email him at investor@sgreinvements.com. ------------ **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)