International report

Israeli-Turkish relations were dealt another blow when a Turkish court issued an arrest warrant on genocide charges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials, a move strongly condemned by Israel. As bilateral relations deteriorate, Israel is stepping up defence cooperation with Turkey's rivals, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. Turkey has ongoing territorial disputes with both – over maritime and airspace rights in the Aegean Sea, and the division of Cyprus following Turkey's 1974 invasion of the island. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north of the island is recognised only by Turkey. Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli claims Israel's deepening partnerships with Athens and Nicosia is aimed at countering the growing threat posed by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "The doctrine of Erdogan is extremely dangerous. It's extremely dangerous for Israel, and we see Erdogan's Turkey as the new Iran, nothing less. It's very dangerous for Cyprus and it's very dangerous for Greece," said Chikli. This month, Israeli and Greek warships held joint military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean. The drill followed similar exercises by the country's air forces. While Ankara played a key role in bringing about a ceasefire in the Gaza war, tensions have continued. "We saw Turkey issuing arrest warrants against 37 high-level Israelis, but I think it also relates to the fact that the ceasefire is fragile. We are not entirely sure we are moving in a positive direction," said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Defence talks However, Lindenstrauss claims the Gaza ceasefire has opened the door to an acceleration in deepening cooperation with Greece. "We see the ceasefire is definitely seen as the green light to proceed in cooperation. We see defence deals... serious defence deals are being discussed," she added. Israeli ministers visited Athens this month for defence talks. Israel has already sold Greece and Cyprus some of its most sophisticated weapons systems, causing alarm in Ankara. "We see an alignment of the Greek, Greek Cypriot [sic] and Israeli navies. One cannot deny the risk that this will embolden them [Greece and Cyprus]... with Israeli support,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc, of Istanbul's Kadir Has University. Cyprus could become an increasingly focal point for Turkish-Israeli rivalries, given its strategic location. The United Kingdom has two military bases on the island, with the United States having a presence on these. Turkey, meanwhile, has an air base in the soi-disant Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. "The island is like a static aircraft carrier; it can dominate the whole of the Middle East and Turkey as well," warns former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik, who is now a journalist. "A fighter plane that lifts off from Cyprus can get to Ankara in 15 minutes maximum. Turkey wants the island to be a security zone for itself. Plus, the Turks have even thought about setting up a new naval and airbase." Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Turkey's recent purchases of Eurofighter jets, along with a missile development programme encompassing hypersonic and ballistic capabilities, are also fuelling Israeli concerns. "It's not clear why a status quo actor should have such a missile programme," said Israeli analyst Lindenstrauss. "For example, Israel doesn't have a missile programme despite the many threats it faces. I think middle and long-range missiles do suggest this is something more related to offensive intentions... I think all actors that have tense relations with Turkey are watching these developments," she added. Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island US influence US Ambassador...

Europe’s pursuit of “strategic autonomy” has become more urgent than ever. In this edition of The International Report, Jan van der Made examines how the continent’s defence ambitions continue to be both shaped and constrained by reliance on the United States. With insights from experts Bart van den Berg and Guntram Wolff, the programme considers whether Europe can develop the industries and alliances necessary to stand independently in an uncertain world.

Anti-Turk protests in Montenegro have added to rising tensions between Serbia and Turkey. The unrest was set off by anger over Ankara’s sale of weapons to Kosovo, and growing fears of Turkish influence in the Balkans. “Turks out!” shouted protesters as they marched through Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital. Several Turkish-owned businesses, among the country’s largest investors, were ransacked during last month’s violence. The clashes were sparked by a knife attack on a Montenegrin citizen by Turkish nationals. After the unrest, Montenegro imposed visa requirements on Turkish visitors. Some opposition parties accused Serbia of stoking the protests, pointing to rising friction between Belgrade and Ankara over the arms sale to Kosovo. “There are those accusing the Serbian region of being behind it,” Vuk Vuksanovic, of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, told RFI. “Although I have seen no material evidence.” Widening rift While Serbia has not commented on the accusations, it has the capacity to incite such unrest given its strong influence in Montenegro, Vuksanovic said. “The drama involving Montenegro has built up to this difficult atmosphere in Serbian-Turkish relations,” he said. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic last month accused Turkey of trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire through the sale of sophisticated drones to Kosovo, which broke away from Serbia in 1999. Analysts say the weapons deal could shift the balance of power in the region. “There are the kamikaze drones, which are posing a threat, and there are also strategic drones likely to be used to secure the border itself and more as a show of force,” said Zoran Ivanov, a security expert from the Institute of National History in Skopje, North Macedonia. “So it poses a direct security threat to Serbia and Serbia has to react to this.” Criminalising identity: Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community under threat Changing alliances The tension marks a sharp turnaround. In recent years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had built a close relationship with his Serbian counterpart, and Turkish companies became major investors in Serbia. However the arms sale to Kosovo reveals a shift in Turkey’s relations with Belgrade, explained international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “Turkey has more leverage than Serbia,” Bagci said. “The relations between Turkey and Serbia, we understand each other, but it is not as happy as before.” Analysts say the shift reflects Ankara’s wider ambitions in the Balkans. “Ankara is trying to increase its influence and will do it,” said Bagci, adding that Turkey’s historical and cultural ties to the region run deep – with millions of families tracing their roots back to the former Ottoman territories. “The Ottoman Empire was a Balkan empire. The Turkish influence is getting bigger, and of course, they don’t like it. But Turkey is the big brother in the Balkans.” Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island Turkish expansion Last month, Turkish forces took command of NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. At the same time, Turkish businesses continued expanding across the region. “They’re expanding their markets; they’re expanding their capabilities; they’re expanding their influence,” Ivanov said. Turkey’s renewed focus on the Balkans was unsurprising given historical ties, he added. “That’s natural for the Turks to come to invest in the region and now looking for their old roots." However its expanding presence might feel like history repeating itself, Ivanov warned. As “a man who is coming from the Balkans,” he said, he sees “the Turks coming as they were in history” – a reminder of a past many in the region have not forgotten. The European Union has praised Ankara for supporting peacekeeping operations and economic aid in Kosovo. But analysts caution that Turkey must avoid alienating its Balkan neighbours. “Ankara also has to be...

International human rights groups are calling for the withdrawal of proposed legislation against Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community, who warn that the law could effectively criminalise their community, which is already facing a growing legal crackdown. This week, the New York-based Human Rights Watch called on the Turkish government to drop a proposed law targeting the country’s LGBTQI+ community. Amnesty International has made a similar demand. Rights groups sound the alarm The proposed legislation, which was leaked to the media, criminalises attitudes and actions deemed contrary to biological sex, carrying sentences of up to three years in prison. “It’s really one of the worst reforms, or proposed reforms, we’ve seen in many years,” warns Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch. “Because it basically says that the government or the authorities can decide that certain behaviour and attitudes are contrary to biological sex and general morality, and are criminal on that basis.” Turkey's Pride struggling to survive amid LGBTQ+ crackdown Widespread impact Sinclair-Webb claims that with the proposed law criminalising the promotion of the LGBTQI+ community, its impact would be far-reaching. “That could affect journalists reporting on matters connected with gender, sexuality and gender identity. It could mean NGOs working to defend the rights of LGBTQI+ people from stigmatisation and discrimination.” Since the foundation of the Turkish Republic in 1923, homosexuality has never been criminalised. But LGBTQI+ rights advocates warn that this could change, given the broadly written nature of the proposed law. “It’s not even same-sex sexual acts that are criminalised. It’s just your appearance. Because the law says anything against biological sex. I mean, it could be very widely interpreted,” explains Öner Ceylan of Lambda a LGBTQI+ rights group in Turkey “So, this could be a woman with short hair or wearing trousers,” adds Ceylan. “Let’s say I’m on the streets, I’m being myself, and I can go to jail for it for three months. Then I’m released, and what happens next? I can easily go back to jail according to that law. So it can be a perfect excuse to imprison an LGBTQI+ person.” Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up Decade of crackdowns Under the proposed law, people could face between three months and three years in prison, opening the door to lengthy pre-trial detention and the risk of mass arrests - a prospect that worries rights groups. Since the early 2000s, Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community has become increasingly visible and vibrant, particularly in Istanbul, with gay clubs, cafés and bars. The city once hosted large Pride marches, with the 2015 event drawing over one hundred thousand people. However, for the past decade, Turkey’s religiously conservative government has been cracking down on the community in the name of protecting the family. Pride marches have been banned since 2015. “Now they’ve banned any kind of LGBTQI+ event in the public sphere,” explains Yıldız Tar of Kaos, an LGBTQI+ group. “We no longer share public venues or their addresses. So we are already living a kind of criminalised life, as if many queer people coming together is a criminal activity, which it is not.” Tar warns that the proposed law represents the endgame in the government’s campaign. “It’s the result of a decade-long war against LGBTQI+ people, and if this law passes, this is the last step.” Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up Rising rhetoric and rising In September, the Turkish Interior Ministry filed a criminal complaint against openly gay pop singer Mabel Matiz, alleging that one of his songs violated morals and obscenity laws. Meanwhile, an all-women pop group, Manifest, was detained under the country’s morality laws for one of their performances, prompting the group to end their sell-out national tour. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been...

The landslide defeat of Turkey's ally in the Turkish Cypriot elections could now force President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to drop his push for a permanent partition of Cyprus and boost efforts to reset ties with the European Union. Securing 63 percent of the vote, Tufan Erhurman’s victory in last weekend's election took Erdogan by surprise. “The defeat was so big, 63 percent was such a landslide, Ankara was really shocked,” said former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik. Erhurman’s Republican Turkish Party backs a united island. Erdogan supported incumbent Ersin Tatar, whose National Unity Party wants two separate states. “Ankara had amassed all its political clout on the island," Cevik added. "It had sent its vice president five times to the island; it had sent numerous delegations led by deputies and mayors.” It failed to win Turkish Cypriots over because “the essence of it was Turkey’s interference, which created huge resentment among the Turkish Cypriots”, Cevik said. Cyprus has been split since Turkey invaded in 1974. Erdogan had pushed for international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara. Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Shift away from partition Analysts say Erhurman’s win has dealt a final blow to Erdogan’s two state strategy for Cyprus. “The two independent states idea was dead on arrival, and now it's officially dead,” said Soli Ozel, of Kadir Has University’s International Relations Department. He said Erdogan’s reaction to the election points to a change in approach. “President Erdogan's message of congratulations to [Erhurman] suggests at least for the moment he's ready to turn the page on that.” Erdogan’s stance is very different to that of his coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, who called for the result to be overturned and for the north of the island to be integrated with Turkey. Former Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp said the election gives Erdogan a chance to drop a policy that has become a growing obstacle to improving EU defence relations. Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances EU ties on the line Cyprus has long blocked Turkey’s hopes of deeper EU defence cooperation and access to a 150 billion euro arms programme known as SAFE. “So far, everything has been blocked by the Cyprus problem,” said Kuneralp, adding that the election result offers a rare opening. “Now you've got these election results that open a small window. So that's why the present situation might not be so bad for Erdogan.” European governments see Turkey as an important partner in defending themselves against Russia. A shift to unification talks could suit both sides, analyst Soli Ozel said. “Given Russia's proclivities, it makes sense for [Turkey] to be part of SAFE. And it doesn't make sense for the Europeans because of the Greek and Greek Cypriot opposition to leaving Turkey out,” he said. Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Changing priorities EU leaders have new priorities that could help clear a path. “The European Union is no longer the European Union of our grandmothers; the issues of human rights and rule of law no longer count for anything," Ozel said. "That's a relation that is cleared of its thorns.” Turkey’s backsliding on democracy has long held back cooperation with Brussels. Human rights is not expected to feature much during German Chancellor Frederick Mertz’s visit to Ankara later this month. Deepening defence ties is set to top the agenda, but how far Erdogan supports unification could decide his next steps with the EU.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey wants to take part in rebuilding Gaza and is ready to join a peacekeeping force once the fighting ends, however analysts warn strained relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv could stand in the way. Turkey responded to a call from Hamas for assistance with locating the bodies of Israeli hostages still unaccounted for in the ruins of Gaza, sending specialists to help in the search. Ankara maintains close ties with Hamas, which some analysts say could make it a useful mediator – although strained relations with Israel could stand in the way of any peacekeeping or reconstruction mission, despite Turkey's experience in these areas. “Turkey does have expertise for this – it has a doctrine,” said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government think tank. “In Afghanistan, Bosnia, some African countries like Somalia or Sudan, and in Kosovo, Turkey contributed either through its Tika aid agency, responsible for reconstruction, or through its armed forces.” Aslan believes Turkey’s approach would be similar in Gaza. “Turkey will send soldiers for sure, for the protection of the civilian units,” he said. Hamas says committed to Gaza truce and returning hostage remains High risk However, others warn the mission would not be easy. “Turkey can become part of this protection force, but it will not be easy. At the moment it seems more problematic than many people assume,” said Huseyin Bagci, an international relations professor at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. Bagci fears Gaza could slide into chaos as rival groups fight for control. “There are fights between Hamas and the clans,” he said. “It will not be easy because Hamas has to give up its weapons, which is the primary condition. Hamas is not 100 percent trusting Turkey – if not, Israel will probably act.” Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Deep mistrust Any Turkish deployment would also require Israel’s consent, which appears unlikely given the collapse in relations between the country's leaders. Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have regularly traded insults since the start of the current conflict in Gaza, and Ankara’s vocal support for Hamas has further deepened mistrust. Israeli analysts say the government is hesitant to allow Turkish troops in Gaza, citing deep tensions and mistrust between the two countries. Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv said there is little enthusiasm for involving a Muslim peacekeeping force, as any casualties could inflame anger across the Muslim world and worsen relations. “This conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions between Turkey and Israel, particularly between the two leaders,” she added. Counting on Washington Any Turkish role in Gaza would likely need US backing to move forward, given Israel’s resistance, observers warn. Aslan believes Washington could help bridge the divide. “Erdogan does have a charming power over Hamas,” he said. “So it’s on Turkey to urge Hamas to accept some things, and it’s on the United States to push Israel to accept the terms of a long-term peace. I believe that Trump is well aware of it, because there is no trust of Israel. That’s a fact, not only for Gazans or Palestinians or Turks, but [across the world] overall.” Aslan says trust would be essential to persuading Hamas to disarm. “I believe Hamas will lay down their arms when they feel safe, and they have to see friendly faces in Gaza to be persuaded." Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Road to normalisation Turkish involvement in Gaza could also help pave the way for a reset in relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Bagci believes Erdogan is hoping for political change in Israel to make that possible. “There will be elections,” he said. “Erdogan [is counting on] Netanyahu losing. But if he wins,...

In this edition of International Report, RFI talks with David Ondracka, former president of Transparency International Czech Republic, about the country’s recent parliamentary elections. Populist billionaire Andrej Babiš has swept back into power after voters, frustrated by unfulfilled promises and a stagnant quality of life, turned their backs on the centre-right government. According to Ondračka, Babiš’s resurgence reflects deep public disillusionment with the political establishment - alongside his skill as a pragmatist who “tells people whatever they want to hear.” While Brussels voices unease over his return, Ondračka argues that Babiš is neither aligned with Moscow nor guided by ideology. Instead, he describes him as a tycoon whose loyalties lie squarely “where the money is” - inside the European Union. Czech populist's comeback a win for politics of pragmatism in shifting Europe As the Czech Republic enters coalition talks and joins Hungary, Slovakia and Poland in navigating a shifting political landscape, Ondračka warns that Europe’s populist wave is far from receding, continuing to test the strength of the liberal centre.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing growing pressure from Washington to cut Turkey’s heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas – and end his long-standing balancing act between Moscow and the West. Erdogan said this week that Turkey would work with the United States on civil nuclear energy, in a new signal to Washington that Ankara is looking west for its energy needs. Turkish companies last month signed a 20-year, multibillion-dollar deal with American firms to buy liquefied natural gas. The agreement came during Erdogan’s visit to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump in late September. During that meeting, Trump urged Erdogan to reduce ties with Moscow and end Turkey’s reliance on Russian oil and gas. “In a sense, he [Trump] is offering a grand bargain to Erdogan,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution. She summed up the deal: “Stop the hedging, stop the stuff with Russia, stop the geopolitical balancing, and then let’s re-establish the partnership, and then we can move along and can really become key partners in the region.” Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade Economic pressure Trump often praises Erdogan as a “friend”, but the US leader has shown he is willing to use economic pressure. During his first term, he triggered a collapse in the Turkish lira over the jailing of an American pastor. He could again target Ankara with secondary sanctions if Turkey keeps importing Russian energy. Russian fossil fuels still provide nearly half of Turkey’s total energy. Zaur Gasimov, a Russian-Turkish expert with the German Academic Exchange Service, said Europe’s experience shows how costly a sudden break with Moscow could be. “It was the case with some Western European countries in 2022 that caused an augmentation of the prices,” said Gasimov. “And the Turkish economy is struggling with inflation that would immediately and heavily affect the life of the average citizen. No party power in Turkey would take such a decision.” Ankara has ruled out ending its Russian energy contracts, but oil imports from Russia have fallen to their lowest levels in a year. Some gas deals, signed decades ago, are due for renewal. Analysts say Turkey may use that moment to slowly cut its dependence on Moscow – a move that would deal a serious blow to Russia, which now relies on Turkey as its last major European gas customer. Druzhba pipeline: dependence, diplomacy and the end of Russian leverage in Europe Strategic balancing Energy trade has long been at the heart of Erdogan’s personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The partnership has survived the war in Ukraine, despite the fact Turkey also supplies arms and support to Kyiv. Turkey’s balancing act helps keep regional rivalries under control, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the Marshall Fund office in Ankara. “Turkey and Russia have been fighting proxy wars in the Caucasus, in North Africa, in the Levant,” he said. “Turkey is getting the upper hand in the end. But Turkey could still manage its relationship with Russia.” Unluhisarcikli added that Ankara would want guarantees from the West before distancing itself from Moscow, since "it would have security implications on Turkey". Turkey would have to be "certain" that it would be welcomed back to Europe and have assurances from the United States, he suggested. Erdogan spoke with Putin by phone this week, though such contacts have reportedly become less frequent as their once-close relationship cools. Ankara remains aware of the risks: when Turkey accidentally shot down a Russian bomber near the Syrian border in 2015, Putin responded with sanctions that hit Turkish exports and tourism, and several Turkish soldiers in Syria were later killed in what Moscow called an accident. Turkey eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role but mistrust clouds Western ties Declining leverage With Russia weakened by sanctions and isolation over its war in...

As efforts continue to resolve Israel’s war in Gaza, the conflict is threatening to destabilise the wider region. A rare joint naval exercise between once-rivals Turkey and Egypt is being seen as a warning to Israel, as long-standing alliances shift and new rival partnerships take shape across the Eastern Mediterranean. After a 13-year break, Turkish and Egyptian warships last week carried out a major naval drill in the Eastern Mediterranean. The exercise is the latest step in repairing ties after years of tension that began when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ousted Mohamed Morsi, a close ally of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “It marks the consolidation of the improvement in relations,” said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, adding the drill sent “a powerful message to Israel of a new alignment”. Guvenc said naval drills in the eastern Mediterranean have typically involved Cyprus, Greece and Israel, but this time Egypt broke with those countries, signalling it was no longer part of the anti-Turkey camp in the region. Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Shift in alliances The Turkish-Egyptian exercise follows years in which Cairo built strong ties with Ankara’s rivals in the region. The shift has not gone unnoticed in Israel. “Definitely, this is a major event that Turkey and Egypt have conducted a naval exercise after so many years,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. The joint drill comes as Ankara has expanded and modernised its navy in recent years. Lindenstrauss said this has unsettled some of Turkey’s neighbours, giving Israel common ground with Greece and Cyprus. “Some of them also have quite big disputes with Turkey, such as Cyprus and Greece,” she said. “Greece and Cyprus relations with Israel have been developing since 2010. We’ve seen a lot of military drills together. We saw weapons procurements between the three actors, and this has been going on for some time. So Israel is not alone.” Turkey has long-standing territorial disputes with Greece and the Greek Cypriot government in the Aegean and the Mediterranean. Guvenc said Israel has gained the upper hand over Turkey in their rivalry centred on Cyprus. "The Greek Cypriots acquired a very important air defence system from Israel and activated it. They made life far more difficult for the Turkish military, in particular for the Turkish Air Force," he said. "This gives you an idea about the shifting balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean as a result of Israel taking sides with Cyprus and Greece." Macron and Erdogan find fragile common ground amid battle for influence Tensions over Gaza Despite those rivalries, Turkey and Egypt are finding common ground in their opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza and in wider concerns over Israel’s growing regional power. In September, Sisi reportedly called Israel an enemy. “There is competition over who is the most dominant and important actor in the Middle East, in the Muslim world in general,” said Lindenstrauss. “I really can’t imagine a unified Turkish and Egyptian action against Israel. I can imagine them cooperating to pressure Israel to change its position, which is what is happening now.” Cairo and Ankara remain at odds over Libya, where they back rival governments. But analysts warn that the fallout from the Gaza conflict is increasingly shaping the region’s power calculations. Guvenc said the outcome of peace efforts could determine the future balance in the Mediterranean. “We see an alignment of Greece, Greek Cypriots and Israel. But once the Gaza issue is tackled, from an Israeli perspective, Turkey is strategically more important than these two countries,” he said. “But if the strategic makeup of the region may not secure a solution, we may see deterioration in the general situation. Then outside...

When Truman Burbank finally realises that his life is a television show – every neighbour an actor, every event scripted – he faces a terrifying choice: walk through the exit door into the unknown, or carry on in a comfortable illusion. Is this is the predicament Europe is facing under Donald Trump’s second term? In his report for the European Sentiment Compass 2025, Pawel Zerka, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests Europe is living its own “Truman Show moment”. The United States, he says, is no longer the ally Europeans had been accustomed to having. Instead, under Trump, Washington is not only pulling the strings in trade, defence and digital disputes – it is waging an outright “culture war” on Europe. The big question is whether the EU has the courage to step off the set, reclaim its autonomy and begin writing its own story. Europe's uncertainty after Trump's first 100 days Trump 2.0 Transatlantic tensions are nothing new. Rows over trade, NATO spending and climate policy have flared under every president from Kennedy to Obama. But Zerka insists that Trump marks a rupture. “There is a clear difference vis-à-vis previous presidents, and even vis-à-vis Donald Trump 1.0,” he told RFI. “Before, we had never seen a US president targeting Europe so clearly and aggressively.” This time round, the barbs are sharper, the interventions more deliberate. Trump openly mocks Europe’s migration and climate policies, last week using the world stage of the United Nations to declare that Europeans are “going to hell” with their “crazy” ideas. Such rhetoric, Zerka argues, is not just bluster. It is part of a deliberate strategy to humiliate Europe, a way of painting the European Union as weak, dependent and incapable of agency. And this culture war is not confined to speeches, Zerka says – the Trump administration has moved from commentary to active interference. In Germany, US Vice President JD Vance and former Trump advisor Elon Musk openly backed the far-right AfD party during the country's legislative elections in February. Similar interference was seen in Poland, Romania and Ireland, where Washington lent support to Conor McGregor, a former mixed martial arts champion who had thrown his "Make Ireland Great Again" hat in the ring for the country's upcoming presidential election on 24 October, but withdrew from the race in September. McGregor's political ambitions had been boosted by an invitation to the White House on St Patrick's Day, with Trump calling him his "favourite" Irish person. “We haven’t seen anything like this before,” Zerka stresses. “There’s such active involvement in domestic politics of European countries, supporting rivals of the governments in place – and very often those rivals are problematic political players.” “There is a lot of appetite among the European public for an assertive Europe, but leaders keep finding themselves in situations where they look ridiculous and Europe gets humiliated” – Pawel Zerka Europe’s new right: how the MAGA agenda crossed the Atlantic A Truman moment So what does it mean for Europe to “walk off the set”? In Truman Burbank’s case, it was about courage – daring to leave behind the artificial comfort of a staged life. For the EU, Zerka says, it is about dignity and identity. “European leaders must be ready,” he argues. “Currently they are buying time with Trump, because they depend so much on America for security, especially with Russia’s war in Ukraine. But the danger is that by playing along, they risk repeated humiliation – whether at NATO summits or in trade negotiations – where Europe ends up looking ridiculous to its own public and to the wider world.” The challenge, Zerka believes, is that many EU leaders still don’t grasp the true nature of the confrontation. They treat disputes over tariffs or defence spending as technical haggles, missing the larger picture – that they are part of a cultural battle over values, sovereignty and the very...

Turkey has hailed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s first White House visit in six years as a diplomatic win, though tensions over Donald Trump’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza still cast a shadow. Ankara is celebrating a diplomatic win after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was hosted by US President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday. In the Oval Office, Trump praised his guest in front of the world’s media. “He’s a highly respected man,” Trump said. “He’s respected very much in his country and throughout Europe and throughout the world, where they know him.” Erdogan smiled as he listened. The Turkish leader had been frozen out by President Joe Biden, who made clear his dislike for the Turkish leader. Trump, by contrast, has long cultivated a friendship with him. But even that relationship has limits, with Israel’s war on Gaza still a source of strain. Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade Restraint over Gaza Erdogan is a strong supporter of Hamas, which he refuses to label a terrorist group, calling it instead a resistance movement. Yet he chose not to let the issue overshadow his visit. Analysts say this restraint was deliberate. “There’s been a concerted effort not to get into a spat about Gaza,” Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, told RFI. “Uncharacteristically, he remains silent on the Gaza issue and that is by design.” During his trip, Erdogan kept his criticism of Israel’s offensive in Gaza to remarks at the UN General Assembly, echoing broader international condemnation. He also met French President Emmanuel Macron in New York and welcomed France’s recognition of a Palestinian state. Erdogan is also seeking wider backing as concerns over Israel’s actions grow, an issue that also came up in his talks with Trump. “Turkey’s concerns with Israel are not actually limited to Gaza,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara. He said Ankara is also uneasy about Israel’s actions in neighbouring states, adding that the two countries’ policies towards Syria clash sharply. “Turkey wants a stable Syria and one that’s centralised,” he said. “Whereas Israel wants a decentralised and less stable Syria.” Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Energy and Russia Turkey’s close ties with Russia risk becoming another flashpoint. Sitting beside Erdogan at the Oval Office, Trump called for an end to Turkish purchases of Russian energy. He also criticised Erdogan’s long-standing policy of balancing relations between Washington and Moscow. “Trump does not want a balancing Turkey, at least today,” said Aydintasbas. “That was more obvious than ever in his rhetoric and his dealings with Erdogan.” She said Erdogan had assumed for the past decade that his balancing act between the West and Russia was acceptable. “It must come as a surprise,” she added. Turkey is the third-largest importer of Russian oil and gas. But in a move seen as an attempt to placate Trump, Ankara this week signed a multibillion-dollar deal to buy US liquefied natural gas over 20 years. The two leaders also signed a strategic agreement on civil nuclear cooperation, which could pave the way for Turkey to buy US-made nuclear reactors. As Trump rails at UN and shifts Ukraine stance, Macron urges US to end Gaza war Limited gains Despite these gestures, analysts said Erdogan achieved little in return. He had hoped Trump would lift a US embargo on the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets. Instead, Trump only gave a vague promise to address the issue. For Erdogan, however, the White House meeting itself may have been the main prize. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said before the meeting that Trump wanted to give Erdogan “legitimacy”. “For Erdogan, this is a big win,” said Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies. The Turkish leader, he said, has long sought a White House photo-op to showcase at...

The legal noose is tightening around Turkey’s main opposition party, with waves of arrests targeting mayors and local officials. But the troubles of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) could deepen further, as a court case threatens the removal of its leadership. "We are fighting for the future of Turkey's democracy," said party leader Ozgur Ozel to tens of thousands of supporters at a rally in Ankara on Saturday. Ozel has been travelling the country since March, when Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested on graft charges. The case marked the start of a legal assault on the CHP. Ozel now speaks at rallies twice a week, despite his often hoarse voice. The party is also defending itself in court over alleged voting irregularities at a congress two years ago that elected Ozel as leader. If the court rules against them, Ozel and the rest of the party leadership could be removed and replaced by state-appointed trustees. "It's unprecedented," said political analyst Sezin Oney of the Politics news portal. "There has not been such a purge, such a massive crackdown on the opposition, and there is no end in sight, that's the issue." Macron and Erdogan find fragile common ground amid battle for influence Arrests and polls On Wednesday, another CHP mayor in Istanbul was jailed, bringing the total to 16 detained mayors and more than 300 other officials. Most face corruption charges. The arrests come as the CHP’s new leadership is stepping up its challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Recent opinion polls give Imamoglu and other CHP figures double-digit leads over the president. Oney said the prosecutions are part of Erdogan’s wider strategy. "He's trying to complete the transformation, the metamorphosis as I call it, of Turkey to become a full authoritarian country," she said. "There is an opposition but the opposition is a grotesque opposition, that can never have the power actually to be in government. But they give the perception as if the country is democratic because there are elections." Armenia and Azerbaijan peace deal raises hopes of Turkish border reopening ‘Multi-front attack’ Ilhan Uzgel, the CHP’s foreign affairs coordinator, said the party is under siege. "We are under a multi-front attack from all directions at almost every level, running from one court case to another," he said. He argued that Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is using fear to force defections. "Sixteen of our mayors are in jail right now, and they threaten our mayors. You either join our party or you face a jail term," Uzgel said. Erdogan rejects any suggestion of coercion and insists the judiciary is independent. Since he came to power more than 20 years ago, however, not a single AKP mayor has been convicted on graft charges – though on Friday at least two local mayors from the ruling party were detained as part of a corruption investigation. Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Political risks Despite appearing dominant, Erdogan may face a backlash. Atilla Yesilada, a political analyst with Global Source Partners, said the crackdown is fuelling public anger. "You look at recent polls, the first complaint remains economic conditions, but justice rose to number two. These things don't escape people's notice; that's what I mean when I say Erdogan took a huge political risk with his career," he said. Erdogan currently trails behind several potential challengers, but elections are still more than two years away. Yesilada said much depends on the stance of Erdogan’s ally Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party. "It's quite possible at some point, Bahceli will say enough is enough, you are destroying the country, and may also end the coalition," he said. Bahceli formed an informal alliance with Erdogan in 2018, when Turkey switched to a presidential system. Erdogan relies on Bahceli’s parliamentary deputies to pass constitutional reforms needed to...

Following years of tension, the presidents of Turkey and France are finding new areas of cooperation. Ukraine is at the centre of this shift, but the Palestinian territories, the Caucasus and Africa are also emerging as shared priorities. However, analysts warn that serious differences remain, making for an uneasy partnership. French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for the creation of a military force to secure any peace deal made between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey, which boasts NATO’s second-largest army, is seen as a key player in any such move – especially given that Washington has ruled out sending US troops. For its part, Ankara has said it is open to joining a peacekeeping mission. “Macron finally came to terms [with the fact] that Turkey is an important player, with or without the peace deal. Turkey will have an important role to play in the Black Sea and in the Caucasus,” said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. Macron last month held a lengthy phone call with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, focused on the Ukraine conflict, and thanked him for his diplomatic efforts to end the war. Turkey eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role but mistrust clouds Western ties Turning point For Professor Federico Donelli of Trieste University, this marks a dramatic turnaround. Previously, the two leaders have frequently exchanged sharp words, especially over Turkey’s rising influence in West Africa and the Sahel. “In Paris, public opinion and the press criticised this move by Turkey a lot,” said Donelli. “At the same time, the rhetoric of some Turkish officers, including President Erdogan, was strongly anti-French. They were talking a lot about the neocolonialism of France and so on.” Donelli added that cooperation over Ukraine has pushed France to reconsider its Africa stance. “As a consequence of Ukraine, the position of France has changed, and they are now more open to cooperating with Turkey. And they [understand] that in some areas, like the Western Sahel, Turkey is better than Russia, better than China,” he said. Analysts also see new openings in the Caucasus. A peace agreement signed in August between Azerbaijan, which was backed by Turkey, and Armenia, which was supported by France, could provide further common ground. Macron last month reportedly pressed Erdogan to reopen Turkey’s border with Armenia, which has been closed since 1993. Turkish and Armenian officials met on the countries' border on Thursday to discuss the normalisation of relations. Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade 'Pragmatic cooperation' But clear differences remain, especially when it comes to Syria. The rise to power of Turkish-backed President Ahmed al-Sharaa is seen as undermining any French role there. “For Erdogan, the victory of al-Sharaa in Damascus on 24 December is the revenge of the Ottoman Empire, and Ankara doesn't want to see the French come back to Syria,” said Fabrice Balanche, a professor of international relations at Lyon University. Balanche argued that France is losing ground to Turkey across the region. “It's not just in Syria, but also in Lebanon – the Turks are very involved, and in Iraq, too. We [the French] are in competition with the Turks. They want to expel France from the Near East,” he said. Despite this rivalry, Guvenc predicted cooperation will continue where interests align. “In functional terms, Turkey's contributions are discussed, and they will do business, but it's going to be transactional and pragmatic cooperation, nothing beyond that,” he said. One such area could be the Palestinian territories. Both Macron and Erdogan support recognition of a Palestinian state and are expected to raise the issue at this month’s United Nations General Assembly. For now, shared interests are likely to outweigh differences – even if only temporarily.

The bombing of the Druzhba pipeline has disrupted oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia and exposed new political rifts in Central Europe. RFI spoke with Andreas Goldthau of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy about the wider implications for regional energy security and the shifting dynamics between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. The bombing was attributed by Russian and Hungarian officials to Ukrainian drone forces, with Ukraine justifying the strike as part of its broader campaign against Russia following the latter's invasion in 2022. The strike resulted in oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia being cut off, and also exposed political divides at the heart of Central Europe’s energy security, sparking a diplomatic fallout between Kyiv, Budapest and Bratislava. "The bombing drives home the point that Russian energy supplies remain a point of contest, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, which remains dependent on [oil] coming from the east,” said Andreas Goldthau, director of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy at the University of Erfurt in Germany. Pipeline dispute shows Central Europe’s struggle to cut ties with Russian oil 'Not a matter of supply' Despite EU-wide efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy – which Goldthau acknowledges is "no longer a big issue for Europe as a whole" – Hungary and Slovakia stand as outliers, locked into long-term contracts and dependent on the Druzhba line. When the pipeline was struck multiple times in August and September, forcing a halt to crude deliveries, both governments were forced to draw on strategic reserves. But how Hungary and Slovakia are coping, is “more a political choice than anything else," Goldthau told RFI. "It is not a matter of supply, but a matter of price and transport logistics, because it could eat into the margins of refineries if you have to source it from other parts and other geographies." Central Europe, he added, “could source through ports in Croatia, and they could have done this already by now, but they chose not to”. 'A political decision' Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government responded to the strike angrily, calling it “an attack on Hungary’s sovereignty”. The country's foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, said: “Ukraine knows very well that the Druzhba pipeline is vital for Hungary’s and Slovakia’s energy supply, and that such strikes harm us far more than Russia.” Both Budapest and Bratislava have demanded EU intervention and accused Kyiv of jeopardising their security, just as reserves were being tapped to keep refineries running. From Washington to Warsaw: how MAGA influence is reshaping Europe’s far right Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested the attacks might hinge on Hungary lifting its EU accession veto, warning: "The existence of the friendship depends on what Hungary’s position is." Ukrainian officials also say that Hungary and Slovakia have failed to diversify away from Russian oil, despite ample opportunity and EU support. According to Goldthau, Russian leverage over the EU "is gone, by and large". He explained: "The EU’s main suppliers are now the United States and Norway. Kazakhstan comes into play, but Russia no longer plays a role." Ukraine, he noted, “no longer gets any Russian oil or any Russian gas, it merely functions as a transit country”. The attack and subsequent diplomatic spat might have provided Hungary and Slovakia “a perfect occasion to pivot and seek alternative supplies, but it’s a purely political decision to do that or not,” Goldthau said. "Whatever changes that [decision] lies at home, and not abroad."

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned of military action against the Syrian Democratic Forces over its failure to honour an agreement to merge its military with the new regime in Damascus. In a move steeped in symbolism, Turkey’s leader chose recent celebrations marking the Ottoman Turks' defeat of the Byzantine Christians at the Battle of Malazgirt in 1071 to issue an ultimatum to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). "Those who turn to Ankara and Damascus will win," Erdogan bellowed to thousands of supporters on 26 August. "If the sword is unsheathed, there will be no room left for pens and words." Turkey, a strong ally of Syria, has a military presence in the country and the two governments recently signed a defence training agreement. But Turkey is unhappy with the presence of the SDF, a coalition of Kurdish and Arab forces, which controls a large swathe of Syria bordering Turkey's own predominantly Kurdish region. Peace or politics? Turkey’s fragile path to ending a decades-long conflict Buying time The SDF is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has for years been fighting Turkey for greater Kurdish minority rights. The PKK is listed as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the European Union and the United States. But Ankara is engaged in a peace process with the Kurdish militants, who have committed to disbanding. However, Kurdish analyst Mesut Yegen, of the TIM think tank in Istanbul, says the disarmament process would be limited to Kurds from Turkey, and doesn’t include SDF forces in Syria. Erdogan is now ramping up pressure on the SDF to honour an agreement its leader Mazloum Abdi signed in March with Syria's new President, Ahmed Al Sharaa, to merge his military forces with the new regime in Damascus. The deal is backed by the US, which has a military force in the SDF-controlled region as part of its war against the Islamic State. But, according to Fabrice Balanche from Lyon University: "The SDF has no intention of implementing the agreement made in March. Mazloum just wanted to gain time." Balanche points out that Abdi's SDF is a staunchly secular organisation and remains deeply suspicious of Sharaa's jihadist connections. Recent attacks on Syria's Druze minority by forces linked to Sharaa appear to confirm the SDF's fears over merging with the Damascus regime, says Balanche. Syria’s interim president vows justice for Druze after deadly clashes 'Israel would like a weak Syria' At the same time, Erdogan is aware that the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish state on its border could be exploited by its rival Israel, which is looking for non-Arab allies in the region. Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat and an analyst for Turkey's Mediyascope news outlet, said: "Strategically, Israel would like a weak Syria, a weak Damascus, a weak Beirut and a weak Tehran." Turkey has carried out military incursions against the SDF, and its forces remain massed on the border. But Balanche says American presence there will likely deter any new Turkish military action. However, he warns that Ankara could seek to fuel Kurdish Arab rivalries within the SDF, with the fall of former ruler Bashar al-Assad last December. Turkey walks a fine line as conflict between Israel and Iran cools "It is different now, you have a Sunni leader in Damascus, and many [Arab] tribes, many people, prefer to join Damascus," he explained. "So the risk is a proxy war. Of course, for the new regime, it would be a disaster. If you have no peace, you have no investment, you have no trust." The dilemma facing Ankara is that any new conflict against the SDF would likely weaken the Sharaa regime – a key ally.

Turkish armed forces could play a major role in securing any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. For Ankara, this would be a chance to reassert itself at a time when many fear it is being sidelined by Western allies. European and US military chiefs last week reportedly presented ideas to their national security advisers on how to guarantee Ukraine’s security if there is a peace deal with Russia. The discussions followed a summit of European leaders in Washington with US President Donald Trump on ending the conflict. "It's going to be a big challenge, but they will find ways of tackling that challenge without the US troops on the ground," said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. "It will be a novelty because Europe has never carried out any peacekeeping or stabilization operation of this magnitude before." Turkey, with NATO’s second-largest army, is seen as a possible option. "Turkey is an option, you know. And it seems that there is some talk of Turkish contribution," Guvenc added. Armenia and Azerbaijan peace deal raises hopes of Turkish border reopening Ankara signals readiness On the same day, French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Ukraine’s security. Ankara has already signalled it could take part in monitoring any peace deal, but Moscow’s approval would be necessary. "If the parties agree, Turkey may send our troops to peacekeeping operations," said Mesut Casin, a former presidential adviser and professor at Istanbul’s Yeditepe University. Casin pointed to Turkey’s past record in UN operations. "Turkey joined many UN peacekeeping operations in the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, and Korea, and in many other peacekeeping operations. The Turkish army is very powerful," he said. "Also, remember Putin is talking many times with Erdogan, and at the same time, Zelensky is visiting Ankara." Turkey and Italy boost cooperation in bid to shape Libya’s political future Balancing Moscow and Kyiv Since the start of the war, Erdogan has kept good relations with both Russia and Ukraine. Ankara has refused to apply most international sanctions on Moscow, while at the same time selling vital military hardware to Kyiv. That balancing act has raised questions among European partners. "Turkey ought to have been at the Washington meeting," said Soli Ozel, an international relations scholar at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna. Even though Turkey borders both Ukraine and Russia, Erdogan was excluded from this month’s summit between Trump and European leaders. "The fact that it wasn't backs the observation that the bigger players or the major partners are not bringing Turkey center stage, they're sidelining it," Ozel added. Despite this, Ankara remains strategically important. "They keep it in the play, it's important because if you're going to need troops, you're going to need Turkey. If you're going to talk about the Black Sea security, you need Turkey. And so you cannot really dismiss Turkey," Ozel said. But he warned that mistrust is limiting Ankara’s role. "You're not making it part of the process that will hopefully lead to a conclusion or a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia. There is a lack of trust, and I think that has something to do with the way Turkey has conducted its diplomacy," Ozel said. Peace or politics? Turkey’s fragile path to ending a decades-long conflict Doubts over influence Some analysts suggest Ankara hopes Europe’s reliance on Turkish forces or its navy for Black Sea security could help restore influence. But others see limited gains. "There is no automatic increase in Turkey's influence and credibility as a result of taking part in such operations," said Guvenc. "It does have a certain impact, but on the other hand, such contributions do not change other Western partners' views of Turkey." Rather than a reset with Europe, Guvenc sees a continuation of the...

The signing of a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington has raised hopes of ending decades of conflict and reopening Turkey's border with Armenia. The deal, brokered by US President Donald Trump, commits both countries to respect each other’s territorial integrity – the issue at the centre of bloody wars. The agreement is seen as paving the way for Turkey to restore diplomatic ties with Armenia. "Ankara has been promising that once there is a peace agreement, it will open the border," says Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "There was a brief period in the post-Soviet era when it [the border] was opened, but that was quickly shut again due to the Armenian-Azeri tensions." Aydintasbas says reopening the border could have wide-reaching consequences. "Armenia and Turkey opening their border and starting trade would be a historical moment in terms of reconciliation between these two nations, which have very bitter historic memories," she adds. "But beyond that, it would help Armenia economically because it's a landlocked country entirely dependent on Russia for its protection and its economy." Turning point In June, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. The meeting was seen as a turning point in relations long overshadowed by the memory of the 1915 Armenian Genocide, which Ankara still officially denies. "There's now a degree of personal chemistry between the Armenian prime minister and Erdogan. This was seen in a June historic meeting, the first ever bilateral contact, a face-to-face meeting," says Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Centre, a think tank in Yerevan. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 after ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan seized the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. The enclave was retaken by Azerbaijani forces in 2022. Giragosian says the peace deal, along with warmer ties between Pashinyan and Erdogan, could now help Yerevan reach a long-sought goal. "In the longer perspective for Turkey and Armenia, this is about going beyond the South Caucasus. It's about Central Asia. It's about European markets, potentially a new Iran in the future," he says. Erdogan congratulated Pashinyan on Monday over the deal, but made no official pledge on reopening the border. That decision may lie with Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev. "They [Ankara] will be looking to Baku. Baku is basically able to tell Turkey not to move on normalisation with Armenia, not to open the border," says Aydintasbas. "Part of the reason is that Turkey has developed an economic dependency on Azerbaijan, which is the top investor in Turkey. In other words, little brother is calling the shots, and I think that Ankara, to an extent, does not like it, but has come to appreciate the economic benefits of its relationship with Azerbaijan." Azerbaijani demands on Armenia Azerbaijan is also pushing for changes to Armenia’s constitution, which it claims makes territorial claims on Nagorno-Karabakh. "The Armenian constitution refers to the Declaration of Independence of Armenia, which has a clear clause on the unification with Armenia, with Nagorno-Karabakh," says Farid Shafiyev of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations, a Baku-based think tank. Shafiyev warned that without reform, the peace deal could unravel. "Let's say, imagine Pashinyan losing elections, a new person says: 'You know, everything which was signed was against the Armenian constitution.' For us, it is important that the Armenian people vote for the change of the constitution," Shafiyev says. Analysts note that changing the constitution would require a referendum with more than 50 percent turnout – a difficult and time-consuming process. Time, however, may be running short. Russia is seen as the biggest loser from lasting peace in the Caucasus. For decades Moscow exploited the conflict to play Armenia and Azerbaijan against each...

Turkey and Italy are working more closely on migration, energy and regional influence as they seek to shape Libya’s political future. Both see the North African country as a key shared interest and are moving to consolidate their positions in the conflict-torn but energy-rich eastern Mediterranean. Earlier this month, the leaders of Italy, Turkey and Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) met in a tripartite summit – the latest sign of growing cooperation between the three Mediterranean nations. “Turkey and Italy have both differing interests, but interests in Libya,” explains international relations professor Huseyin Bagcı of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “Particularly, the migration issue and illegal human trafficking are big problems for Italy, and most of the people are coming from there [Libya], so they try to prevent the flow of migrants. "But for Turkey, it’s more economic. And Libya is very much interested in keeping the relations with both countries.” Turkey and Italy consider teaming up to seek new influence in Africa Migration, legitimacy concerns Turkey is the main backer of Libya’s GNA and still provides military assistance, which was decisive in defeating the rival eastern-based forces led by strongman Khalifa Haftar. An uneasy ceasefire holds between the two sides. Libya security analyst Aya Burweilla said Turkey is seeking Italy’s support to legitimise the Tripoli government, as questions grow over its democratic record. “What it means for the Tripoli regime is very positive. This is a regime that has dodged elections for years," she says. "Their job was to have democratic elections, and one of their ways to make sure they stay in power was to get foreign sponsors, like Turkey... Now, with this rubber stamp from Meloni in Italy, they can keep the status quo going at the expense of Libyans.” Years of civil war and political chaos have turned Libya into a major hub for people smugglers. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, elected on a pledge to curb irregular migration, sees stability in Libya as key to that goal. “The migration issue has become very, very urgent in general for Europe, but of course for Italy too,” says Alessia Chiriatti of the Institute of International Affairs, a think tank in Rome. Trump and Erdogan grow closer as cooperation on Syria deepens Mediterranean ambitions Chiriatti said Meloni’s partnership with Turkey in Libya also reflects broader foreign policy goals. “There is another dimension – I think it’s directly related to the fact that Italy and Meloni’s government want to play a different role in foreign policy in the Mediterranean space," she says. "Italy is starting to see Africa as a possible partner to invest in … But what is important is that Italy is starting to see itself as a new player, both in the Mediterranean space and in Africa, so in this sense, it could have important cooperation with Turkey.” She points out that both Italy and Turkey share a colonial past in Libya. That legacy, combined with the lure of Libya’s vast energy reserves, continues to shape their diplomacy. Ending the split between Libya’s rival governments is seen as vital for stability. Moscow’s reduced military support for Haftar, as it focuses on its war in Ukraine, is viewed in Ankara as an opening. “Russia is nearly out, and what remains are Turkey and Italy,” says Bagcı. He added that Ankara is making overtures to the eastern authorities through Haftar’s son Saddam, a senior figure in the Libyan military. “The son of Haftar is coming very often to Ankara, making talks. It’s an indication of potential changes... But how the deal will look like I don’t know, we will see later. But it’s an indication of potential cooperation, definitely.” Turkey steps into EU defence plans as bloc eyes independence from US Shifting alliances Libya was discussed when Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo on Saturday. Sisi...

Ankara is aiming to dodge President Donald Trump’s threat of sanctions against countries that trade with Russia. While Turkey is the third largest importer of Russian goods, it has largely escaped international sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, with Trump vowing to get tough with Moscow if it fails to make peace with Kyiv, that could change. “I am going to make a new deadline of about 10 or 12 days from today," Trump declared at a press conference on 28 July during his visit to Scotland. "There is no reason to wait 50 days. I wanted to be generous, but we don’t see any progress being made.” The American president admitted his efforts to end the Ukraine war had failed and that his patience with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, was at an end. Turkish President Erdogan ready to rekindle friendship with Trump Trump later confirmed 8 August as the date for the new measures. With US-Russian trade down 90 percent since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump warned that other countries importing Russian goods would also be hit by secondary sanctions. “If you take his [Trump] promises at face value, then he should look at all countries that import any Russian commodities that is of primary importance to the Russian budget - this includes, of course, crude oil, and here you have China and India mostly,” explained George Voloshin of Acams, a global organisation dedicated to anti-financial crime, training and education. Voloshin also claims that Turkey could be a target as well. “In terms of petroleum products, Turkey is one of the big importers. It also refines Russian petroleum in its own refineries," Voloshin added. "Turkey imports lots of Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline. Turkey is very much dependent on Russian gas and Russian petroleum products." Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common ground Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ankara insists it is only bound by United Nations sanctions. Last year, Turkey was Russia’s third-largest export market, with Russian natural gas accounting for more than 40 percent of its energy needs. Putin has used Turkey’s lack of meaningful domestic energy reserves and dependence on Russian gas to develop a close relationship with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. “Putin knows that no matter what Trump wants, Turkey is not going to act in any military or sanctions capacity against Russia and Iran. You know, these are Turkey’s red lines. We can’t do it,” said analyst Atilla Yeşilada of Global Source Partners. “Trump is 10,000 miles away. These people are our neighbours,” added Yeşilada. “So Putin doesn’t think of Turkey as a threat, but as an economic opportunity, and perhaps as a way to do things with the West that he doesn’t want to do directly.” Ankara is performing a delicate balancing act. While maintaining trading ties with Russia, Erdoğan remains a strong supporter of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Turkey is a major arms seller to Ukraine, while at the same time, Erdoğan continues to try and broker peace between the warring parties. Last month, Istanbul was the venue for Russian–Ukrainian talks for the second time in as many months. Such efforts drew the praise of Trump. Trump and Erdogan grow closer as cooperation on Syria deepens Trump's pressure mounts on energy and trade The American president has made no secret of his liking for Erdoğan, even calling him a friend. Such close ties, along with Turkey’s regional importance to Washington, analysts say, is a factor in Ankara’s Western allies turning a blind eye to its ongoing trade with Russia. “I think Turkey has got a pass on several levels from Russian sanctions,” observed regional expert Sinan Ciddi of the Washington-based think tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. However, Ciddi cautions that Trump remains unpredictable and that previous actions are no guarantee for the future. “Past experience is not an...

Azerbaijan is increasingly engaging in tit-for-tat actions towards powerful neighbour Russia amid escalating tensions in the South Caucasus region. This comes as Baku deepens its military cooperation with long-standing ally Turkey. In a highly publicised move, Azerbaijani security forces in Baku recently paraded seven arrested Russian journalists – working for the Russian state-funded Sputnik news agency – in front of the media. Their detentions followed the deaths last month of two Azerbaijani nationals in Russian custody, which sparked public outrage in Baku. "That was quite shocking for Baku, for Azerbaijani society – the cruelty of the behaviour and the large-scale violence," Zaur Gasimov of the German Academic Exchange Service, a professor and expert on Azerbaijani-Russian relations told RFI. "And the Russian-wide persecution of the leaders of Azerbaijani diasporic organisations took place (this month)," he added. Tit-for-tat tactics Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have been simmering since December, when Russian air defences accidentally downed an Azerbaijani passenger aircraft. Baku strongly condemned Moscow’s lack of an official apology. The deaths in custody, which Moscow insisted were from natural causes, and the broader crackdown on Azerbaijan’s diaspora are being interpreted in Baku as deliberate signals. "This kind of news had to frighten Azerbaijani society, which is aware of the fact that around two million ethnic Azeris with Azerbaijani and Russian passports are living in the Russian Federation," explained Gasimov. "So the signal is that we can oust them, and they would come to Azerbaijan. That should be an economic threat." Gasimov noted that while Baku may have previously backed down in the face of Russian pressure, this time appears different. "The reaction of Azerbaijan was just to react, with tit-for-tat tactics," he said. Shifting power in Caucasus Baku’s self-confidence is partly attributed to its military success in 2020, when it regained control over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region and adjacent territories from Armenian forces after a six-week war. "The South Caucasus is changing," noted Farid Shafiyev, Chairman of the Baku-based Centre for Analysis of International Relations. Shafiyev argues that the era of Moscow treating the region as its backyard is over. "Russia cannot just grasp and accept this change because of its imperial arrogance; it demands subordination, and that has changed for a number of reasons. First of all, due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and second, due to the trajectory of events following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The third very important factor is Turkey," added Shafiyev. Turkey, a long-standing ally of Azerbaijan, has significantly increased military cooperation and arms sales in recent years. Turkish-made drones played a key role in Azerbaijan’s 2020 military campaign. In 2021, the Shusha Declaration was signed, committing both nations to mutual military support in the event of aggression. Turkey also plans to establish one of its largest overseas military bases in Azerbaijan. "A very strong relationship with Ankara, marked by strong cooperation in the economic and military fields for decades, as also outlined in the Shusha Declaration several years ago, is an asset and one of the elements of Azerbaijan’s growing self-confidence," said Gasimov. Azerbaijan and Turkey build bridges amid declining influence of Iran Strategic rivalries Turkey’s expanding influence in the South Caucasus – at Russia’s expense – is the latest in a series of regional rivalries between the two powers. Turkish-backed forces countered a Russian-aligned warlord in Libya, and Turkey-supported factions have contested Russian influence in Syria. These confrontations have strained the once-close ties between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. "No doubt that the Putin-Erdogan relationship is not as good as it used to be because...